589
FXUS61 KAKQ 150627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
227 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern continues into midweek with
scattered thunderstorms possible each day. Heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will be possible each day before the heat
rebuilds Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 259 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch in effect through late tonight for most of our VA
  counties just inland of the Chesapeake Bay, and has been
  expanded to include Dorchester and Wicomico in MD.

- Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will accompany the convection
  this evening and tonight.

Convection has developed along a sea breeze boundary in Hampton
Roads area, and has remained relatively stationary, prompting the
issuance of a Flash Flood Warnings for portions of Norfolk and VA
Beach. Otherwise, it has remained mostly quiet across the remainder
of the local area aside from the occasional pop-up sea breeze shower
along the coast and Eastern Shore. GOES Visible imagery is
highlighting a widespread cumulus field across basically the
entirety of the forecast area. Local radars are detecting a line of
storm to the west of our area that are slowly approaching our
piedmont counties.

This afternoon`s setup is featuring a similar environment to the
past few days with ample instability, minimal inhibition, and
anomalously high PW values. Shear will continue to be a limiting
factor. With the steering flow being almost non-existent, the main
threat will continue to be flash-flooding, though strong winds are
possible from water-loaded downdrafts. The sea breeze convection
will continue to push out outflow boundaries, so this could prolong
convection in SE VA and NE NC for a few hours. A weak shortwave will
move across the area just to our north this evening into tonight. As
this is a transient feature, these storms will likely not be quite
as stagnant as the ongoing daytime storms and be more
linear/organized, but will still bring very heavy rainfall to the
area that could produce additional flooding concerns. These slower
moving storms, combined with PW values of 2"+, will lead to periods
of heavy rainfall for localized areas across our forecast area this
evening into tonight. With the antecedent rainfall we have seen over
the past few days, flash-flood guidance continues to be lower,
especially in more vulnerable areas such as the Richmond metro and
adjacent areas, so it will not take much rainfall to lead to
flooding. WPC has a majority of our forecast area in a Slight ERO
today, and scattered instances of flash-flooding are possible. A
Marginal ERO is in place across far SE VA and eastern North
Carolina.

Convection will taper off from west to east overnight, but could be
more prolonged than initially thought. CAMs have trended a little
slower, so have extended the Flood Watch until 6 am to account for
uncertainties in the timing. Overnight temperatures will drop into
the lower to mid 70s. The development of patchy fog is again a
possibility early tomorrow morning, and areas that receive rainfall
this evening into tonight may see areas of dense fog closer to
sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 259 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled pattern continues into Tuesday and Wednesday with
  additional rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls
  NW of the area.

The front that is currently draped across the Ohio River Valley will
likely inch a little closer to our area by Tuesday morning but is
expected to stall to our northwest. This setup will bring yet
another day of afternoon storms capable of gusty winds and heavy
rainfall that could lead to flash-flooding. WPC continues to
highlight our area with at least a Marginal ERO for now on Tuesday,
though would not be surprised if this is upgraded to a Slight ERO
due to the already saturated ground and the rainfall expected this
evening increasing the vulnerability of areas to additional
rainfall. A similar pattern continues into Wednesday with a bit more
flow aloft possible during the afternoon and evening as a shortwave
in the SW flow aloft potentially moves across the region. No real
changes in the airmass through Wednesday with PWATs remaining around
2" so the threat for localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds
persists. More cloud cover is expected with the front forecast to be
a little closer to the area Tuesday and the possibility of the
shortwave moving across the area Wednesday, so highs are forecast to
only reach the upper 80s with temperatures nearing 90 degrees in the
NE NC and SE VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 259 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories
  possible.

Looking ahead to late-week, upper ridging will build northwards into
the area through the weekend. With this change in the pattern,
convective coverage will likely diminish some, but due to the time
of year and weaker ridge, have maintained scattered PoPs for the
time being. With the decrease in cloud cover and storms expected
combined with the upper ridging, temperatures will be able to climb
into the lower 90s Thursday through Saturday, with Friday possibly
seeing mid 90s across the area. At the same time, there will be an
uptick in low level moisture and dew points will increase into the
mid to upper 70s. Heat indices, especially on Friday, could eclipse
105F+ so Heat Advisories may be required. On Saturday, temperatures
may not be quite as warm, so Heat Advisories may be necessary only
in the southern portion of our area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Monday...

Thunderstorms are becoming more numerous and forming a broken
line to the NW of the main terminals, from northern VA back SW
across the central VA piedmont. Earlier sea-breeze induced
storms near the coast have diminished and radar trends suggest
lower chances for showers and storms later tonight across SE VA
and NE NC. Have maintained PROB30 groups for ORF/PHF, from ~03
to ~06Z (confidence being too low for TEMPO). The chances are
greater at RIC/SBY and have added TEMPO groups for tstms from
01-04Z at RIC, and 02-05Z at SBY. Heavy rain will potentially
reduce VSBYs to IFR-LIFR thresholds, and gusty winds will be
possible (especially at SBY). After 06Z, the best chance for
showers and tstms continuing will be at SBY, with more uncertainty
elsewhere. With a more widespread cloud shield, SSW winds and
some ongoing mixing, think the overall coverage of fog will be
less than the past few nights at the main terminals, though
there is still a chance for some low stratus and MVFR VSBYs,
primarily from 09-14Z. Mainly VFR from late Tue morning through
early-mid aftn, but with additional showers/tstms developing
thereafter. After 18-19Z, have included PROB30 groups for tstms
at all terminals except ECG.

Outlook: Additional scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected to recur Wed, along with the
potential for early morning fog/stratus. Shower/storm coverage
is forecast to be a bit lower late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 259 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through Wednesday outside of
local influences from afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, mainly across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River.

High pressure offshore continues to lead to prevailing southerly
flow over most of the waters. However, winds in some areas have
turned to the N this morning due to convective influences. The
expectation is for winds to again become SW everywhere around
sunrise through the late morning period. As sea breezes develop this
afternoon, expect the wind direction to turn S-SE at 10-15 kt. The
pressure gradient sharpens some into Wednesday as low pressure
tracks well N of the area through the Great Lakes region. 10-15 kt
SW winds are expected through Wednesday, with less of a sea breeze
influence. A period of Small Craft Advisory conditions are appearing
increasingly plausible Wednesday night and local wind probabilities
are 80-90% for 18 kt sustained winds across most of the Chesapeake
Bay and coastal waters. Will hold off on issuing headlines given
this is within the fourth period, but SCAs will likely eventually be
needed sometime within the 00z-12z period Wednesday night/Thursday
morning. Seas build to 3-4 ft Wednesday night, with 2-3 ft (locally
4 ft) in the Chesapeake Bay. Winds decrease some during the day
Thursday, especially over the open water, but will tend to remain
gusty to around 20 kt on nearshore portions of the waters (including
on the rivers and Currituck Sound). Another period of elevated SW
flow (and SCAs) is possible Thursday night/Friday morning, but
confidence is lower. By later Friday into the weekend, benign
conditions return with high pressure settling near the area.

Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue
much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief strong
wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021-022.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>083-087-088-509>522.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...SW