Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
233 FXUS63 KAPX 191350 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 950 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, near record temps today - Slight chances for isolated to scattered storms Friday - Cooler temperatures and more chances for rain early next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 949 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Current forecast for today remains on track with no major changes. Mostly sunny skies are in store for northern Michigan once again with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s for most areas this afternoon. Those along the immediate lakeshores may see slightly cooler highs in the upper 70s as lake breeze formation develops and pushes inland later today. Rain-free weather will persist through this evening before long-awaited rain chances begin to move in from the west late tonight/early Friday morning. However, any rain during that period is expected to be very light as better rain chances look to hold off until later Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Pattern/synopsis: Guess what...high pressure continues to extend into lower MI from the east. But, a cold front is making eastward progress across the eastern Dakotas. This front will push into western WI and eastern IA by daybreak Friday. So actual changes are on the way...as soon as late tonight. Forecast: Those changes aren`t on the way for today, though. Pretty similar wx. Patchy fog/stratus is already evident on satellite in parts of the eastern UP and ne lower MI. That will expand for the next several hours, before mixing out after sunrise. A mostly sunny day is still forecast after that, allowing temps to warm to near-record levels. Highs will range from the upper 70s on some beaches, to the mid 80s in parts of northern lower MI. Cloud cover will increase from the w tonight, as deep convection develops and expands somewhat, ahead of the inbound surface cold front. This is in a zone of increasing sw low-level flow. 1-km sw winds increase to 25kt across WI, and eventually central/ northern Lake MI and western parts of this forecast area late tonight. A plume of elevated instability will eventually push into central WI and western upper MI. This will attempt to feed any inbound convection/MCS from the rear. We are not unstable here, and initially dry (though moistening late). Most of the night is dry, with increasing clouds. After 4 am, a chance for showers and just maybe a t-storm pushes into areas near and west of a Trout Lk-TVC line. Lows tonight are quite mild, mid 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Starting early Friday the upper level ridge will finally be exiting to our east while an upper low over central Canada reaches down into the northern plains. This will lead to a quick moving shortwave over the northern Plains and Great Lakes area which works to flatten out the flow behind it (a detail for later this weekend). Guidance shows convection kicking off over MN/WI ahead of a more shallow surface cold front Thursday afternoon. The convective remains (likely mid to high level clouds and some lucky areas seeing light rain) will be approaching the CWA Friday morning. Winds turn south to southeasterly Friday morning with surface dew points rising into the high 50s to low 60s as the warm sector also arrives. Latest CAM runs are more optimistic about the warm nose aloft being overcome by mixing, however this remains an area of uncertainty. The forecast has decent cloud cover over the CWA most of Friday. As expected, CAMs are also all over the place with CIN Friday afternoon. Besides available instability, the shortwave will likely be moving overhead Friday afternoon which will help provide some lift to a decent amount of moisture (PWATS ~1.3"). This will likely lead to light rain in some places, with embedded weak storms where some better instability exists. Model soundings depict some pockets of drier air aloft, which could lead to some gusty outflow winds from storms. Otherwise, LCL heights will likely be >1.5 kft and FZL ~12 kft. This means if storms do form, possible hazards will be gusty outflow winds, lightning, and small hail. If we are able to get more sunshine at the surface, storm coverage could become scattered and not isolated. The shallow (~2 - 2.5kft MSL) cold front will makes its way through Friday evening/night and veer winds to the west to northwest. Temperatures remain in the high 70s to low 80s Saturday as a deeper closed low over Canada starts to approach Ontario CA. The zonal flow talked about in the beginning will meet up with the bottoming trough and create a ~130kt jet at 250mb. Another round of healthy moisture advection to MI is possible Sunday, leading to better chances for rain (maybe even some storms) Sunday - Tuesday. Temperatures look to finally cool down to fall like near the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 639 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Fog/stratus will potentially provide restrictions at all sites but TVC as late as 14Z. Otherwise VFR today and tonight. Clouds will be increasing tonight, but rain chances will mostly wait until after the current TAF period. Light winds. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJC SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...JZ