551
FXUS61 KCAR 281949
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
349 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south of the waters tonight, then slowly
exits to the east Saturday. A warm front lifts to the north
Saturday night, followed by a cold front crossing the region
from Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure then builds through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1021mb sfc high pressure located over eastern NY with nrn and ern
Maine remaining on ern periphery of high. NW winds continue to gust
15-25kts this afternoon and will slowly diminish after sunset. High
pressure will build offshore this evening with winds becoming light
out of the west overnight.

High clouds will begin to stream in ahead of the next system late
this evening from the west and thicken and lower late tonight. This
will likely keep temps from dropping too much given winds will be
decoupling. Mins over the north will drop to around 50 with srn
locations in the lower 50s.

Upr lvl low currently diving into the nrn Plains begins to open up
as it heads twd the wrn Great Lakes late tonight. Zonal flow aloft
will begin to transition to swrly flow late Saturday afternoon as
upr trof approaches. By 18z Saturday sfc low fcst to be to the north
of Georgian Bay with surface warm front likely to just be entering
New England. Warm advection showers out of ahead of the front will
be entering nwrn zones in the afternoon and spreading east from
there. Steady rain looks to be from about Bangor up toward Houlton
by the end of the period as heavy rain looks to be on the doorstep
as pw values climb toward the 90th percentile once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm front approaches Saturday evening and lifts north later
Saturday night. The combination of the low to mid level warm
advection and short wave crossing will lead to a period of rain
Saturday evening into Saturday night. Rainfall amounts Saturday
night look to be on the order one-half to three-quarters of an
inch. Precipitable water values do increase to greater 1.50",
so certainly cannot rule out some locally higher amounts. Patchy
fog is possible late. Lows Saturday night are expected to
generally range from the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

Cold front approaches Sunday morning and crosses the region
during Sunday afternoon. Dew points ahead of the front are
expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s in the airmass
ahead of the front.

The main challenge on Sunday is the convective/severe potential.
SREF guidance indicating highest probabilities of SB CAPES
greater than 1000J stretching from around Houlton, through
portions of the central Maine highlands, the upper Penobscot
Valley and the Bangor region. 0 to 6 KM shear values on the
order of around 45 to 55 kt. Still to early the talk enhanced
wording at this point, as uncertainty still exists in just how
quickly things destabilize with any lingering marine layer in
place. That being said, strong to severe storms are still a
possibility on Sunday along with locally heavy rainfall. SPC
Day 3 outlook from earlier this morning still highlighting the
Bangor region through Downeast in an slight risk with marginal
to the north of there.

The front exits the coast around or shortly after 0Z. Could be
some lingering showers or thunderstorms in the Bangor region
early evening, otherwise northwest flow of drier air follows the
passage of the cold front for Sunday night.

High pressure follows for Monday with mainly sunny skies and
perhaps some fair weather cumulus expected. Afternoon highs on
Monday will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday night through Wednesday looks to be fair with partly to
mostly sunny days and mainly clear nights. Afternoon high
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be near to
slightly above normal.

Next cold front approaches Wednesday night and crosses the
region on Thursday with the next chance for any showers just in
time for Independence Day. High pressure builds back in for
Friday. High temperatures by late week will be near to slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours under high pressure. BKN mid-deck
likely to move in at all terminals between 10-12z Saturday.
Gusty northwest winds diminish with sunset this evening.

SHORT TERM:

Sat night...MVFR/IFR expected. Rain. LLWS possible. S wind
G20t.

Sun...MVFR/IFR early, then becoming VFR afternoon. TSRA expected. S
to SW wind G20 to 25 kt, then becoming NW late.

Sun night...MVFR possible KBGR/KBHB early in lingering TSRA,
otherwise improving to VFR.

Mon through Wed...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas and winds will remain below small craft levels
through Saturday afternoon. Southerly winds increase late in the
day though stable layer may prevent wind from gusting above 25
kts into the evening hours. Seas will likely remain below 5ft
over the outer waters through the end of the period.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions are possible Sat night through Sun night,
otherwise expect below SCA conditions the remainder of the
period. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 NM in rain
Saturday night and then in any showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday.&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...Buster/TWD
Marine...Buster/TWD