Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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337 FXUS65 KFGZ 180330 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 830 PM MST Fri May 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer and drier weather will return to northern Arizona Friday through the weekend, with winds gradually increasing each afternoon. Unsettled weather is possible next week. && .UPDATE...Today`s fair weather cumulus are dying off and clear skies are developing across northern Arizona. Southwest winds remain persistent downslope of the high terrain, but overall a quiet night is in store. The current forecast is in good shape and no updates are needed at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION /424 PM MST/...through Sunday...A shortwave ridge keeps temperatures warm and mostly sunny skies in store for today, outside of some fair weather cumulus in the higher terrain. Heights begin to fall over the weekend as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and a closed-low approaches the California coast, leading to breezier southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures. Monday through Thursday...As the low ejects off the Pacific, it phases with the longwave trough to the north. The resulting increased pressure gradient over Arizona will lead to increased winds across much of the region. Model soundings show ample mixing potential on Monday, allowing for faster winds aloft to mix down to the surface. At this point, guidance continues to indicate the potential for wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph over and downwind of the terrain. The areas most likely to see the strongest winds, will be the typical locations downwind of the Mogollon Rim into the Little Colorado River Valley. With a dry airmass in place, minimum RH values Monday afternoon will be in the upper single digits to the upper teens. This combined with the strong winds will potentially lead to critical fire weather conditions on Monday. While moisture overall will be limited with this system, there may be just enough to squeak out an isolated shower or two late Monday into Tuesday over the higher terrain of far northern Arizona. Any shower that does develop will be high-based, with the chance for wetting rain virtually zero. Zonal flow sets in behind the trough, with occasional passing disturbances to the north. Thus, dry, cool, and breezy conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the upcoming week. && .AVIATION...Saturday 18/00Z through Sunday 19/00Z...VFR conditions continue. SW to W winds 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts during the afternoon hours with light winds overnight. OUTLOOK...Sunday 19/00Z through Tuesday 21/00Z...VFR is expected through the period. SW winds 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts on Sunday. SW winds increase Monday to 20-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Dry conditions continue through the weekend. Southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph in the afternoon. Minimum RH values between 10-20%. Monday through Wednesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue. Southwest winds 25-35 mph gusting to 40-50 mph on Monday. Winds decrease to 10-20 mph for Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum RH values will range between 5-15% each day. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of northern Arizona on Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Benji/Humphreys AVIATION...MCT FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff