837
FXUS63 KGID 081118
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
618 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and thunderstorms may develop this morning, and
  again this evening and tonight. Severe weather will mainly
  remain to the south, but a couple of strong to severe storms
  may clip our north central Kansas counties this evening and
  tonight.

- Cooler weather is expected this weekend with high temperatures
  in the 70s and low 80s.

- Periodic low chances of precipitation through the work week.

- Warmer temperatures return for the latter half of the week
  with high temperatures in the 80s and 90s expected Wednesday
  through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Ended up getting fog with visibilities of half a mile or less
across much of south central Nebraska this morning, so issued a
Dense Fog Advisory until 9AM across portions of the area. This
includes the entirety of Interstate 80 across the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

This morning, a few showers and storms are moving across
northern and central Kansas along a surface disturbance
associated with low pressure centered in Kansas. These are
expected to produce mainly just a few showers and remain sub-
severe. Patchy fog is also expected to develop this morning
across portions of the forecast area. Widespread dense fog is
not expected at this time, and any fog that does develop will
dissipate by 9 or 10 AM.

Today and tonight...
A weak shortwave disturbance moving across NE and KS this
morning will bring a chance (20-30%) of a few showers and storms
across mainly southern Nebraska later this morning and into the
afternoon, but these storms will not be severe. Another stronger
shortwave disturbance will move across the region this evening
and tonight, bringing more rain and thunderstorms. Most of this
activity is expected to move generally southeast from eastern
Colorado into Kansas and generally miss our forecast area.
Still, there is the chance that some of this does enter our
north central Kansas counties. The strongest storms may produce
large hail and damaging wind gusts, and a Marginal Risk for
severe weather does include a portion of Rooks County, KS. CAMs
do keep some of this just a touch north into north central
Kansas, so would not be surprised to see stronger thunderstorm
activity there as well. Thinking the window for severe weather
is limited as instability dives south of the area during the
evening. Elsewhere, very little precipitation is expected from
this system, perhaps a few hundredths of an inch. High
temperatures today will be in the 70s across south central
Nebraska and the low to mid-80s across north central Kansas.

Sunday through Tuesday... An upper ridge will develop over much
of the western CONUS Sunday and move across the Plains Monday,
leaving the area dry through the daytime hours Monday. High
temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s. Monday evening
through Tuesday, a trough will move across the area, bringing a
return to at least low end chances (20-40%) for precipitation.

Wednesday through Friday...
An upper ridge will move across the northern Plains and a very
broad area of high pressure over the desert Southwest will
expand northeast into the Plains, although there are periodic
low end precipitation chances across portions of Nebraska and
Kansas during this time. Temperatures across our area will be
hotter Wednesday through Friday with highs into the 80s and
90s...the hottest day likely being Thursday with highs across
north central Kansas forecast to be in the mid-90s. Models
indicate an area of low pressure moving from off the southern
California coast to the central Plains during this period, but
there is a lack of model consensus as to when or if this impacts
our forecast area...but it is something to keep watching with
potentially more storms Friday evening into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

IFR/LIFR CIGS will continue until 14Z or 15Z when fog starts to
dissipate as winds increase this morning. Visibility will
improve then as well. Northeast winds will increase to 10-15
kts shortly after daybreak, with gusts reaching to 20 kts by
early this afternoon. After fog dissipates, VFR CIGS will return
by early afternoon. Gusts will diminish this evening, with
light northeast winds overnight persisting through the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hickford
DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford