Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 210921
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
421 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Areas of dense fog developed fairly rapidly during the predawn hours
along a surface ridge axis oriented from central Nebraska to western
Kansas, aided by presence of moisture/wet ground from the recent
rainfall. The low visibilities in fog have warranted a dense fog
advisory for much of our area which remains in effect until mid
morning when conditions will improve with daytime heating. The
rest of the day will see a trend toward warmer/seasonal weather as
the surface ridge axis shifts southeast, allowing for return flow
of southerly winds and milder air to advect onto the plains.

Confidence is not high on whether or not storms will develop
later this evening/tonight given the varying model solutions. The
GFS is the most robust in generating convection with indications
of a stronger low level jet than other models. While other models
are not as strong with the forcing, they do indicate decent mid
level warm air advection and elevated instability near 2000 j/kg
and therefore chances for isolated/scattered storms remain in the
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Tuesday will be the start of a nice warmup with temperatures
returning to the 80s for highs, and these warm temps are expected to
persist through the workweek and into the Memorial Day holiday
weekend. Patternwise the plains will be in a southwest flow regime
for much the week while an upper low pressure system in CA begins to
fill and lift out across the central/northern Rockies, due to an
upstream closed upper low reaching the west coast.

Intermittent chances for showers/storms exist in this pattern due to
the warm air advection and subtle shortwave troughs lifting out
across the plains. A few strong/severe storms cannot be ruled out at
times especially toward mid week, favoring the late day/overnight
time frame and the latest SPC Day 3 outlook outlines much of our
region in a marginal risk Wednesday.

The pattern undergoes changes late this week and into the holiday
weekend as the northern wave translates toward the Great Lakes
region and the western CONUS upper low moves inland, resulting in
northwest flow then upper ridging across the plains. Overall the
holiday weekend is still looking more dry/warm than wet,
especially with the ECMWF solution, while the GFS solution
suggests some potential for storms (but not a rainout). Have
maintained a dry weekend forecast for now and details will be
refined as the weekend gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Low ceilings and fog are the main concerns for the TAF period. To
the west of terminals, fog is developing along a surface ridge
axis and the potential for dense fog exists tonight into Monday
morning as the ridge migrates east and in the presence of low
level moisture. Cloud ceilings are expected to remain low through
the morning before raising during the day. Look for winds to be
fairly light and variable tonight before transitioning southerly
on the back side of the ridge axis.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039-040-
     046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085.

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005-006-
     017-018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Fay


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