Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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607 FXUS63 KIWX 092356 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 756 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rather cool by June standards Monday with highs in the 60s (coolest near the lake). - Temperatures slowly warm through the upcoming week, with well above normal conditions arriving this weekend. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday night into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Overall a rather tranquil several days in store for the area as high pressure dominates. A cold front will drop south tonight into Monday morning, bringing a reinforcing shot of colder air as well as increasing low clouds that may very well persist through much of Monday as strong CAA settles in. Previous highs were rather warm compared to much of the guidance with many of the models only having highs in the 60s and maybe upper 50s along the lake. Collaboration has resulted in lowering of highs, but also trying to account for the possibility of clearing in the afternoon and the June sun offsetting some of the impacts of the CAA. It may be a bit breezy in some areas as well, especially closer to the lake. The cold air will be short lived as ridging moves in with temperatures closer to normal Tuesday followed by above normal (well into the 80s) for the rest of the period. A weak front will bring a chance of showers and maybe a few storms, but overall confidence is low given deeper moisture will still reside well south of the region. Trends still suggest that the upper level ridge will strengthen further this weekend into next week with highs in the upper 80s to possibly low 90s settling in. Dewpoints will remain in check initially with heat indices a few degrees warmer than forecasted highs. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Predominantly VFR/MVFR for the TAF period. A weak surface trough/cold front will move southeastward through Monday, bringing mostly continued breezy N-NW winds (especially KSBN through the early evening) and an increase in cloud cover. Upstream observations show ceilings beginning around 5000 ft and then dropping towards the 1500-2500 range (mostly 2500). Model guidance suggests KSBN will stay above 2,000 feet, but have KFWA going down to around 1500 ft between 12-15z when we start to see daytime mixing. Gusts up to around 20-25 knots are possible at KSBN during the afternoon thanks to enhancement from the lake breeze. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...MCD