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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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514 FXUS63 KLMK 011916 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 316 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Unsettled weather expected Wednesday afternoon through Friday with daily chances of showers/storms. Strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon/evening and possibly on Friday. Damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and intense lightning will be possible with the storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The axis of an upper ridge is currently working east over Illinois as it continues towards the Lower Ohio Valley. This is pushing the center of a large area of surface high pressure east through the Great Lakes, and this is what is driving our winds out of the northeast to east-northeast through the rest of the evening. Temperatures are near 80 with dew points near 50 across the area. Tonight, skies will remain mostly clear, but some scattered cirrus will stream overhead as calming winds continue slowly veering towards the east. This should allow for some good radiative cooling, allowing temperatures to fall into the low 50s to low 60s. Most will see the mid to upper 50s. Tomorrow, as the center of the surface high makes it to New York, the back side of the high will quickly veer our winds to the south. Some light cumulus will be possible, but increased warm air advection and lots of sunshine will lift temperatures back to the upper 80s and low 90s. Dew points will return to the mid 60s to low 70s, so it will feel much warmer than today. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Tuesday Night through Friday Night... Upper ridging will hold sway and keep our weather quiet for Tuesday night. Tuesday night lows will be quite mild with readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s east of I-65. West of I-65, lower 70s will be commonplace. Moving into Wednesday, upper level ridge axis will flatten out a bit as a mid-level shortwave trough axis cruises through the Great Lakes. Within a return flow regime, we`ll see strong heating during the day with highs topping out in the the lower 80s. Given temps forecast temps in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the lower-mid 70s should result in ample instability developing through the afternoon. Synoptic scale forcing (height falls due to passage of upper trough axis) and a weak cold front look to force convection across the Midwest and down into the Ohio Valley. While mid-level flow will be stronger to our north, we`ll have weaker flow down south of the river along with marginal lapse rates. It appears that some sort of convective line will develop ahead of a southward sagging cold front and may produce a round of strong/severe storms. Current thinking is that best instability/shear will be to our north and that some strong/severe storms would be possible down to about the KY/IN border. This activity will likely roll through our CWA into Wednesday evening before dying out with the loss of daytime heating. Storms that do develop will have the potential to produce damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and intense lightning. Slow flow aloft would lead to slower storm motions which could result in some local water issues in some areas. Lows Wednesday night will only drop into the lower-mid 70s. Heading into the Fourth of July, upper level ridge axis will remain entrenched across the SE US with a west-southwest flow aloft across the Ohio Valley. Aforementioned cold front from Wednesday will likely remain in the vicinity and serve as a focus for convective redevelopment. The convective evolution is quite uncertain here as we`ll likely have some left over boundaries and probably some cloud debris that may affect our afternoon heating. Nonetheless, we`ll have some instability and showers/storms will be around. Focus for more organized convection looks to remain to our northwest, but any storms on Thursday will be capable of torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Those with plans for the Fourth should continue to monitor upcoming forecasts closely. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows in the low-mid 70s. On Friday, we`ll see another, but stronger mid-level trough axis push through the Midwest and Great Lakes while dragging a stronger cold front through the region. The Euro solution is a bit more amped up in its 01/00Z and 01/12Z solutions which may result in another bout of strong/severe storms on Friday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70. For the weekend and into early next week, pattern change aloft looks to occur with strong ridging developing out across CA/NV/OR with a downstream trough axis across the eastern US. This would effectively push the cold front on through our area yielding a cooler and less humid weekend. Highs Sat/Sun/Mon look to average near normal with upper 80s with lows in the upper 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The forecast remains unchanged with VFR conditions lasting through the forecast period. Surface high pressure, centered over the Great Lakes, is passing to our east. This is keeping our winds out of the northeast to east. Later tomorrow morning, winds will continue veering to the south. A few scattered cirrus will also slowly descend during the period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...KDW