472
FXUS62 KMFL 031728
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
128 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

South Florida will remain in the periphery of a surface high located
off the Carolina coastline today, allowing for continued easterly
flow and moisture advection across our region. This, along with a
subtle upper-level shortwave situated over the peninsula will lead
to increased chances for rainfall across much of the region.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have already moved across
the local Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro; activity will
continue through the evening, with coverage shifting westward
towards interior and southwest FL as winds speeds pick up. The
primary risk with the convective development today will be the risk
of localized flooding due to heavy rainfall. Secondary risks with
the shower and storm activity today also include the chance for
gusty winds and frequent lightning.

The forecast will be fairly similar heading into Tuesday, with the
exception of the surface high`s influence, which will drift eastward
and will allow for lighter easterly winds to be realized across the
area. Nevertheless, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
will remain elevated given the enhanced moisture profile and
continue presence of upper-level support. At this time we capped
PoPs at 60% for Monday afternoon, with PotThunder capped at 50%.

Temperatures during the short term period will follow a typical
easterly regime, ranging from the mid-80s near the immediate east
coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Weak mid-level troughing near the Florida Peninsula will
gradually transition to a more zonal pattern by mid-week. At the
surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to
induce light easterly wind flow over the region. This setup will
lead to a return to a typical summertime pattern across South
Florida, with shower and thunderstorm activity driven by sea
breezes. Convection will initially develop over local waters and
the east coast areas in the morning, shifting towards the interior
and west coast in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures on
Tuesday and Wednesday will generally reach the upper 80s to
around 90 along the east coast and the lower 90s in the interior
and west coast areas.

Heading into the latter half of the week, mid-level troughing
will amplify over the Southeastern United States. At the surface,
a frontal boundary will advance through the Gulf Coast states and
Northern Florida on Thursday into Friday. This front may progress
further southeast into Central Florida by the weekend. The exact
positioning of the front remains highly uncertain; however, it
will cause winds across South Florida to veer to a south to
southwesterly direction as the week ends and the weekend begins.
While convection will continue to be primarily sea breeze-driven
towards the end of the week and into the weekend, the highest
chances of storms may shift towards the interior and east coast.
The front could provide additional lift and instability,
increasing storm chances, depending on its southward progression.
This scenario remains highly uncertain due to varying guidance and
being at the forecast periods end, and will be monitored as the
week progresses. Temperatures will steadily increase through the
latter half of the week and into the weekend. Highs will reach the
lower 90s along the coasts and the mid to upper 90s in the
interior sections. Heat indices will rise into the triple digits
across most areas each day, driven by the developing south to
southwesterly wind flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Generally VFR through the period. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms could impact KAPF this afternoon, with short-fuse
TEMPOs potentially needed for any disruptions. Easterly winds
10-15 kts will persists through the evening, with gusts up to 20
kts possible along the East Coast. At KAPF, the Gulf Breeze will
push inland this afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight,
then back to the easterly regime tomorrow, with chances for
showers and thunderstorms along the East Coast in the early
afternoon, shifting westward after 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Boating conditions will continue to improve today and into the
workweek as easterly winds gradually diminish in strength. Seas will
remain in the 2-3 ft range through the first half of the week.
Nevertheless, scattered showers and storms each afternoon could
result in localized higher seas and winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A high risk for rip currents remains in place today for the Palm
Beaches, with an elevated risk for the remainder of the east coast
beaches. Conditions continue to improve by mid week as the easterly
flow weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  89  78  89 /  20  40  50  60
West Kendall     74  91  75  92 /  20  40  50  60
Opa-Locka        77  91  77  92 /  20  40  50  60
Homestead        77  89  77  89 /  20  40  50  60
Fort Lauderdale  77  87  78  88 /  20  40  50  60
N Ft Lauderdale  77  88  77  89 /  10  40  50  60
Pembroke Pines   77  92  78  93 /  20  40  50  60
West Palm Beach  74  89  76  90 /  10  40  40  60
Boca Raton       76  89  77  90 /  10  40  40  60
Naples           74  94  76  93 /  40  40  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...ATV