346
FXUS62 KMHX 031328
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
928 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains off the coast through midweek. A backdoor
front will move into the area on Tuesday and stall through
Wednesday morning. The weak front will lift back north
Wednesday as strong cold front approaches from the west. The
front will move through Friday, with cooler and drier conditions
expected for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 9:20 AM Monday...Only minor adjustments were made to the
PoP forecast with this update. As is usually the case when
forcing is weak, the CAMs are struggling to capture the
scattered shower coverage. The RAP and FV3 are handling these
morning showers the best, so PoPs were adjusted to follow their
trend, which resulted in a slight increase across the coastal
plain. The 12Z sounding showed a pocket of dry air in the lower
levels, but this is dwindling as PWATs increased from less than
1" to nearly 1.5" over the past 12 hours. With ongoing moisture
advection, the second round of shower activity this afternoon
will be more capable of producing heavier rainfall.

Previous Discussion...As we go through the day today, upper
level trough which is currently over the Carolinas this morning
will gradually shift offshore by this afternoon. While at the
mid levels, a weak shortwave will be rounding the base of this
trough and eventually push offshore by this evening. At the
surface, high pressure ridging will remain centered offshore
resulting in steady south to southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph
with sea/river/sound breezes briefly enhancing this flow in the
afternoon. This will continue to advect moisture northwards
today allowing dewpoints to gradually increase to the mid to
upper 60s while PWATs which are currently around 1-1.25 inches
increase further to 1.25-1.75 inches by this afternoon.

As the aforementioned shortwave moves across the region today
it will be the focus for two potential rounds of precip. The
first will be in the morning where isolated to widely scattered
showers will be possible mainly west of Hwy 17. Have kept PoP`s
at 20-25% mainly between 11-14Z to account for this. The second
period of precip will likely occur this afternoon and early
this evening as the trough eventually pushes offshore. Latest
CAM guidance remains split on the overall evolution and specific
location of precip so forecast remains low confidence. But,
given both deterministic and ensemble guidance have increased
precip chances slightly, raised PoP`s mainly west of Hwy 17 to
about 30-40% this afternoon.

With instability increasing this afternoon as MLCAPE values get to
around 750-1250 J/kg, a chance for isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible. A lack of wind
shear across the region will preclude any severe threat, though
any storm that does develop may bring frequent lightning, gusty
winds, and locally heavy rainfall at times this afternoon.
Precip chances then begin to decrease once again after sunset.
Temps today get into the low to mid 80s.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Mon... Weak upper ridging then builds over the
Mid-Atlantic this evening while weak shortwaves ride along the
periphery of this ridge. This should allow for much of the
region to be precip free outside of some isolated showers along
the Gulf Stream though can`t discount a few iso showers across
the far E`rn zones either. Sfc high remains centered offshore
bringing continued S`rly flow to ENC tonight. This will keep
things warm and muggy tonight with lows only getting down into
the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM Mon...Unsettled conditions expected through
Thursday with near seasonable temps. A backdoor cold front moves
into Eastern NC Tuesday, likely stalling through Wednesday
morning, and providing a focus for scattered shower and
thunderstorm development. Front lifts back to the north
Wednesday, with high pressure strengthening offshore. Increasing
southerly flow will bring a surge of moisture into the area
through late week with more unsettled conditions through
Thursday. A cold front will move through Friday, bringing drier
conditions late week into the weekend. Another frontal system
may impact the area early next week.

Tuesday...A weak backdoor cold front will move into the area
Tuesday morning, likely stalling across portions of the area
into Tuesday night. In additional to diurnal heating and the
seabreeze, this will provide additional focus for afternoon
shower and thunderstorm development. Will continue high chance
pops. Weak bulk shear (less than 10 kt) should limit svr threat.
Temps near climo with highs in the 80s.

Wednesday through Thursday...The stalled frontal boundary will
lift back north early Wednesday with cold front approaching from
the west and high pressure strengthening offshore. This will
allow rich moisture (PWATs 1.75-2") to advect in from the west
ahead of a potent upper level trough and strong cold front.
Increasingly unsettled conditions are likely with a diurnal max
in coverage each afternoon, capped pops at high chance for now,
with greatest coverage likely Thursday afternoon and evening.
Weak shear will limit svr threat, though an isolated strong
storm with gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain will be
possible. An increase in heat and humidity is also likely as
highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon, and it
will feel like 95-100 degrees out when factoring the humidity.

Friday through Sunday...Cold front looks to move through Friday,
though still some uncertainty with respect to timing. 00z
guidance shows upper troughing lingering along the east coast
through the weekend, depicting drier and slightly cooler
conditions across eastern NC. Another frontal system may impact
the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday night/...
As of 705 AM Mon... Latest trends have resulted in a few minor
changes to the near term TAF forecast. Latest radar imagery
shows scattered shower activity approaching the western Coastal
Plain this morning and as a result will add in a line for SHRA
across the terminals this morning with a brief reduction in
visibility. Otherwise expect a primarily VFR TAF today with
light S to SW`rly winds. Sct to bkn strato cu around 4-5 kft
will prevail, with sct/bkn mid and high clouds persisting
through tonight. Will once again leave any precip mention out
for this afternoon given lower confidence in which TAF sites see
precip later today though showers and a few thunderstorms will
be possible after about 1-2PM especially across the western TAF
sites. Precip chances then quickly decrease after sunset from
west to east. With dry weather forecast through much if not all
of the evening across ENC.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Mon...Unsettled conditions expected this week,
with best chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday.
This could bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to the
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Monday night/...
As of 325 AM Mon... Rather benign boating conditions continue
to persist across our waters today as S to SW winds persist at
5-15 kts through the period. Winds could gust around 20 kts
across the Gulf Stream waters and larger sounds this afternoon
and evening, though expect to remain below small craft criteria
regardless. Seas generally remain around 1 to 3 ft along our
coastal waters. As a weak trough moves across the area today
isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible
as well, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Mon...Good boating conditions expected through
Wednesday with light to moderate winds. The pressure gradient
will tighten Wednesday night into Thursday with SCA conditions
possible.

A backdoor front may push into the northern and central waters
Tuesday, then lift back north Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
front will likely bisect the coastal waters into Wed morning,
with winds north of the boundary E-SE 10 kt or less, while south
of the boundary winds expected to remain SSW 5-15 kt. SSW winds
will increase to 15-20 kt Wednesday night, becoming SW 15-25 kt
Thursday. The cold front will move through Friday, with
gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Seas will be
mostly 2-3 ft through Wednesday, building to 3-6 ft Thursday,
then gradually subsiding to 2-4 ft Fri.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD/SGK
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF