Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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593 FXUS62 KMLB 071052 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 652 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VCTS starting 20Z-21Z and running through 02Z-03Z for ISO-SCT TSRA/SHRA INVOF all ECFL terminals. Enough consistency the last few model runs to justify TEMPOs for TSRA impacts 21Z-23Z at the Orlando area terminals and 22Z-24Z at KDAB-KTIX. CIGs expected to remain VFR, with heavy rain and gusty winds the primary impacts. Light SW-W winds once again favor the WCSB, forecast to reach KLEE ~18Z, and KMCO/KISM ~20Z if TSRA doesn`t develop first, increasing winds to ~10 kts. ECSB reaches the coastal terminals ~16Z to the south and ~20Z to the north, shifting winds to E-SE 10-15 kts. Winds become light/VRB after 02Z Friday night, and remain light into much of Saturday. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Key Messages: -Isolated to scattered lightning storms this afternoon, capable of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall -Increasing temperatures this weekend with heat index values 100-107+ and a risk for heat exhaustion or heat stroke -Coverage of lightning storms increases next week, timing and rainfall amounts remain less certain Today-Tonight...With temperatures in the mid 70s and dew points not too far behind, it feels quite muggy stepping out the door. Skies are mostly clear, winds are light, and GOES-derived PW range from 1.5" across most locations to 1.7" along the Martin/Palm Beach County line. Hot, humid conditions are forecast to continue today with highs approaching the mid 90s and heat indices topping out around 100-107F. Make sure to practice heat safety, staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks in shaded or air-conditioned spaces. Relief from the heat in the form of scattered showers and lightning storms is possible again this afternoon through early evening. Unlike yesterday, model guidance suggests a bit of warming in the mid levels, suggesting less support for a hail and damaging wind threat. However, the risk for a strong to severe storm cannot be completely ruled out, especially where water-loaded downdrafts could quickly produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Locations along the sea breeze collision will see the highest rain chance, generally near and just west of I-95. The main timeframe for storms is after 3 or 4 PM, ending an hour or two after sunset. Storms will drift toward the east coast before dissipating or moving offshore. This Weekend...Lower coverage of showers and storms is anticipated, as a surface boundary dissipates across north Florida, mid level ridging builds over the state, and relatively drier air pushes south. PW should remain in the upper 1" range to nearly 2" from Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast, with values around 1.3" to 1.6" farther north. This means the best chance for rain will be across southern counties Saturday and Sunday (30-50 PoP). The bigger story will be the heat and humidity, which will combine to produce heat index values near Heat Advisory criteria (especially south). The risk for heat-related illness increases as a result, so residents and visitors are encouraged to stay well-hydrated, while taking frequent breaks in shade and air conditioning. Record-breaking high temperatures may occur at a couple of sites through the weekend and perhaps even on Monday. Overnight lows will stay warm in the 70s. Monday-Thursday...Monday stays hot with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s and heat index values spanning the 100s, though rain chances do increase as greater moisture advects north across the state. Ridging begins to break down, also, as a surface front approaches the Panhandle. 850mb-500mb SW winds increase Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms through the day, perhaps lingering into the nighttime hours. Medium-range solutions are spread far and wide, with the GFS surging moisture north across the FL peninsula and supporting a wide swath of 2-4" of rainfall through Wednesday. In contrast, the ECMWF keeps rain totals below 1" here through Thursday morning. Any rain will be beneficial to the ongoing drought conditions, but just how much remains to be seen. Daytime temperatures will largely depend on the presence (or absence) of rainfall and associated cloud cover. For now, the forecast leans toward the NBME and cooler side of guidance, with the ECMWF several degrees warmer. Expect highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through mid week. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions outside of isolated showers and lightning storms. Winds back to the ESE as the east coast breeze increases to around 10-15 kt. Seas generally 2 ft. Locally higher winds and seas are possible in the vicinity of storms. Saturday-Tuesday...Lower rain chances this weekend and light surface winds are expected, prior to sea breeze development. In the afternoon SSE winds 10-15 kt behind the breeze. Winds increase up to 17 kt Sun. and Mon. night but remain around 15 kt or less during the day. Seas 2-3 ft. Rain and lightning storms increase in coverage next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Today-This Weekend...Sensitive fire weather conditions persist due to drought conditions and the potential for new fire starts due to lightning strikes. Minimum relative humidity values fall to the mid 30s to low 40s on Sunday, before moisture increases across the state next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 74 95 75 / 40 30 20 10 MCO 95 76 97 77 / 50 20 30 20 MLB 93 74 93 75 / 50 40 20 20 VRB 93 74 94 75 / 50 40 30 30 LEE 96 76 97 76 / 40 10 20 10 SFB 95 75 97 76 / 50 30 20 10 ORL 96 76 97 78 / 50 20 30 10 FPR 94 73 94 74 / 50 40 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Haley