Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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679 FXUS62 KMLB 300040 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 840 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 819 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR outside of storms. Light scat`d showers will continue to diminish into the late evening but kept VCSH through 06Z at KSUA. Light variable winds overnight back ESE into the mid morning/afternoon with the ECSB at 5-10kts. Scat`d storms are expected to develop into the afternoon with VCTS (17Z-18Z) for all TAFs and TEMPO TSRA groups (19-01Z) at inland sites. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Key Messages... -Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms forecast Sunday into next week, with greatest coverage still focused across the interior. -Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal this weekend through next week, with humid conditions leading to peak heat index values around 102-107 each day. Thru Tonight...Boundary collisions over the interior combined with some upper support shifting S/SW across the area will produce numerous showers and storms through sunset. Locally heavy rain producing 2-4 inches will be possible along with frequent lightning strikes and strong wind gusts. Steering flow will be largely toward the S so push back to the east coast looks unlikely so most coastal communities will remain dry thru the eve. Bulk of the convection over land should end around or shortly after sunset. A weak mid level trough will drop south over the Bahamas and should produce a better chance for convection to develop over the Atlc waters offshore the Treasure coast overnight and some of these may push onshore before sunrise. Sunday...A little stronger and deeper onshore (east) flow will push the east coast sea breeze inland a little faster and a tongue of slightly drier air is forecast to push SW into northern sections. The best chance for morning showers and isolated storms will be over southern sections shifting to the interior during the afternoon. Have capped PoPs at 60 percent along the Treasure coast and interior and 50 percent along Volusia and Brevard coasts and this may be generous. Max temps close to seasonal norms ranging from the upper 80s immediate coast to the lower 90s inland. High dewpoints though will continue to produce peak heat indices of 102-106 esp across northern sections. Mon-Sat...(modified) Atlantic subtropical ridge axis is forecast to remain across the area into early next week as a weak front moves into the southeast U.S. and stalls across north FL. Low level winds become more southerly Monday and Tuesday then veer more onshore into mid week as high pressure shifts offshore the eastern U.S. coast. NHC forecasts TC Beryl to continue to plow west- northwest through the Caribbean Sea during this time. Sea breeze will form each afternoon and move inland, with scattered showers and storms forecast to develop during the afternoon and evening hours along and inland of this boundary. However, greatest rain chances will remain across the interior where boundary collisions are favored to occur. PoPs are forecast to lower to 40-50 percent along the coast and 50-60 percent inland early to middle portion of next week. Some drier air building into the area later into the week, and strengthening onshore flow may then lead to a continued decrease in storm coverage, and have rain chances falling to 40-50 percent across the area into Thursday and Friday. Still can`t rule out a few stronger storms each day, with main threats being lightning strikes, strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Highs will reach the lower 90s early next week. Temps then continue to increase toward mid to late week as ridge aloft extends eastward across the area, with highs in the mid 90s forecast across portions of the interior, mainly near to northwest of I-4. Humid conditions will continue to produce peak heat index values during the afternoon around 102-107. Warm and muggy conditions continue during the overnight hours, with lows in the 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Atlantic subtropical ridge axis will remain across the area maintaining favorable boating conditions. Light and variable winds expected again into Sunday morning, but flow will develop a more southerly component next week. Winds will become onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland, with speeds around 10 knots each afternoon. Seas around 2 feet Sun-Mon will increase up to 3 feet offshore by mid week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible over the coastal waters through the period. A higher coverage of showers and storms are possible Sunday morning esp south of Sebastian Inlet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 91 75 92 / 10 50 20 40 MCO 76 91 74 92 / 40 60 20 60 MLB 75 89 75 90 / 40 50 20 40 VRB 74 89 74 90 / 30 60 20 40 LEE 76 92 76 92 / 50 60 30 60 SFB 76 92 75 92 / 20 60 20 50 ORL 76 91 76 92 / 30 60 20 60 FPR 74 88 74 90 / 30 60 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Fehling