Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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556 FXUS62 KMLB 290042 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 842 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 829 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Widespread debris -RA left over from this afternoon`s TS producing MVFR VIS impacts at all ECFL terminals except KTIX. Most of this should dissipate between 02Z-03Z, but could linger INVOF one or two terminals until around 04Z, most likely those along the Treasure Coast. After this -RA clears, VFR conditions prevail through the rest of the night and into Saturday morning, then another afternoon of SCT-NUM TS expected. Generally light southerly winds overnight becoming easterly 5-10 kts Saturday afternoon after the sea breeze pushes through. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Key Messages... -Scattered to numerous afternoon/evening showers and storms forecast to continue over the next several days, with a few stronger storms possible each day. -Hot and humid conditions persist, with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat index values around 102-107. Current-Tonight... Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms have developed and are pushing eastward across the local area and offshore. The east coast sea breeze has formed and is pushing inland this afternoon, with additional showers and storms developing along the sea breeze as storms and outflow boundaries interact with the sea breeze. Temperatures as of 3 PM are in the mid to upper 80s, to even low 90s across the south. The Bermuda high axis has shifted slightly northward into south Florida today, resulting in the east coast sea breeze pushing a little farther inland this afternoon. The 15Z XMR sounding shows increased moisture, with a PW value of 1.96" and is fairly moist through the column. This ample moisture, mixed with daytime heating, will support scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms through this evening. PoPs 60-70 percent into early evening, with highest coverage of storms occurring along any boundary collision from the sea breeze and outflow boundaries, mainly west of the I-95 corridor across east central FL. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-45 mph, and heavy downpours. Some storms may be strong. Despite the weakening westerly steering flow through the day, storms are expected to move back towards the coast and offshore through late afternoon/evening. Hot and muggy conditions persist with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices ranging from 102-107 degrees. Any lingering showers and storms are expected to dissipate or move out of the local area by midnight. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions over land areas tonight after midnight. Seasonable and humid conditions tonight, with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Sunday...The ridge axis of high pressure in the west Atlantic will continue to lift northward across the area into the weekend, resulting in low level winds weakening. The east coast sea breeze will form each afternoon and push even farther inland than today. The moist airmass remains in place on Saturday, with PW values ranging from 2.2-2.5", which will support higher rain and storm coverage (PoP 60-70 percent) across much of the area. Moisture decreases slightly over the area on Sunday, with PW values ranging from 1.9-2.2". Onshore flow will increase on Sunday, focusing greatest rain chances inland, with PoPs ranging from 50 percent along the coast and around 60 percent across the interior. Main storm threats through the weekend will strong wind gusts, lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall. A few storms may be strong. Temperatures will be seasonable through the weekend, with afternoon highs in the low 90s with humid conditions continuing to produce peak heat index values around 102-107. Overnight lows remain in the 70s. Monday-Friday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Weak front moves into the southeast U.S. into early next week and will gradually weaken, with subtropical ridge axis continuing to generally extend across the FL peninsula. Sufficient moisture remains in place for at least scattered showers and storms each day, with greatest rain chances over the interior where late day boundary collisions will be favored. Ridge aloft over the south central U.S. will extend eastward and into Florida, with highs in the mid 90s returning from some interior locations, and remaining in the low 90s at the coast. Heat index values are forecast to continue to peak around 102-107 each day. && .MARINE... Issued at 342 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will shift slightly northward across South Florida into tonight. S/SW flow has shifted SE/S this afternoon behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to S/SW overnight, with speeds generally around 10 KT. Seas will be 2 ft across the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft across the offshore waters. Scattered offshore moving showers and lightning storms will be possible this afternoon and evening with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters. Saturday-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic moves back northward across the waters into the weekend and early next week. Southerly flow each morning will become onshore into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze will be able to form each day and push inland. Sea breeze generated showers and storms each afternoon should largely remain over land areas, but isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible over the coastal waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 91 76 91 / 40 60 40 40 MCO 77 91 76 91 / 40 70 30 60 MLB 76 90 76 90 / 50 60 30 40 VRB 75 90 76 90 / 50 50 30 40 LEE 78 93 77 93 / 50 70 30 60 SFB 76 92 76 92 / 40 70 30 60 ORL 77 93 77 92 / 40 70 30 60 FPR 75 90 76 90 / 50 50 30 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Haley