Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
602 FXUS62 KMLB 280846 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 446 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 445 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Key Messages... -Scattered to numerous afternoon/evening showers and storms forecast to continue over the next several days, with a few stronger storms possible each day. -Hot and humid conditions persist, with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat index values around 102-107. Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic nudges slowly northward today into south FL, with low level offshore flow generally continuing but also weakening. This will allow the east coast sea breeze to form and push a little farther inland than yesterday. While PW values may drop a tad through early morning, model guidance indicates these values rebound into the afternoon, increasing to around 2.0-2.3 inches. This very moist airmass and daytime heating should allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop, mainly into the afternoon/early evening. However, there may be a slightly earlier start to some showers and isolated storms across Lake County into the morning hours. Hi-res and MOS guidance all indicate higher coverage of convection today, so have raised PoPs slightly to 60-70 percent across much of the area. Greatest coverage of storms will occur with any boundary collisions from storm outflow and sea breeze boundaries, which look to occur west of the I-95 corridor across east central FL. Westerly steering winds weaken through late day, but may still be sufficient for storms moving back toward the coast and offshore through late afternoon/evening. Some stronger storms will again be possible today, with the main threats including frequent lightning strikes and strong wind gusts to 40 to 50 mph. With offshore winds decreasing, low level shear will also be weaker, and therefore threat for any severe weather looks low. However, as typically is the case during the wet season, an isolated severe storm or two can`t be completely ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall up to 2-4 inches will also be a concern today, due to the weaker steering winds and moist airmass in place. This may lead to temporary minor flooding of roadways and poor drainage areas. Convection will gradually diminish through late evening, with drier conditions expected overnight. It will be another hot and humid day, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s and peak heat index values around 102-107 before storms and increasing cloud cover provide some relief later into the afternoon. Conditions will remain warm and muggy into tonight, with lows in the 70s. Saturday-Sunday...Ridge axis of high pressure continues to lift northward across the area into the weekend, with low level winds weakening. This will allow the east coast sea breeze to move even farther inland through the weekend. A very moist airmass remains in place on Saturday, with PW values remaining around 2.0-2.3 inches, which will again favor higher rain chances up to 60-70 percent across much of the area. Then a modest drop in moisture and a slight increase in onshore flow on Sunday focuses greatest rain chances inland, with PoPs ranging from 50 percent along the coast and around 60 percent across the interior. A few stronger storms will continue to be possible each day, with strong wind gusts, lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall continuing to be the main threats. Highs in the low 90s and humid conditions will continue to produce peak heat index values around 102-107. Overnight lows remain in the 70s. Monday-Thursday...Weak front moves into the southeast U.S. into early next week and will gradually weaken, with subtropical ridge axis continuing to generally extend across the FL peninsula. Sufficient moisture remains in place for at least scattered showers and storms each day, with greatest rain chances over the interior where late day boundary collisions will be favored. Ridge aloft over the south central U.S. will extend eastward and into Florida, with highs in the mid 90s returning from some interior locations, and remaining in the low 90s at the coast. Heat index values are forecast to continue to peak around 102-107 each day. && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Today-Tonight...Relatively light offshore flow around 5-10 knots will become E/SE into the afternoon up to around 10 knots closer to the coast as sea breeze forms and moves inland. Winds then veer to the S/SW into tonight, remaining around 5-10 knots. Seas will range from 1-3 feet. Main concern for boaters will be the potential for some storms to move back toward the coast and just offshore into the afternoon and evening. Frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds will occur with any stronger storms. Saturday-Tuesday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic moves back northward across the waters into the weekend and early next week. Southerly flow each morning will become onshore into the afternoon as sea breeze will be able to form each day and push inland. Sea breeze generated showers and storms each afternoon should largely remain over land areas, but isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible over the coastal waters. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1250 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 IMPACT: - Numerous afternoon/evening storms expected beyond 28/18Z. Restrictions to IFR, gusts to 35 KT possible. Quiet weather is forecast through the overnight. A few showers may impact LEE as early as 13Z. Sea breeze looks to penetrate a bit farther inland this afternoon, sparking 60-70% storm coverage from mid-afternoon through early evening. Storms will likely affect the Greater Orlando area terminals and DAB first before drifting/developing toward MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA from 19Z-29/00Z. Prevailing VFR outside of storms, with SW winds 5-12 KT becoming ESE in the afternoon at the coastal terminals. TSRA TEMPOs were required at all local area TAF sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 75 90 75 / 70 40 70 40 MCO 93 77 92 76 / 70 30 70 40 MLB 92 76 90 76 / 70 40 60 40 VRB 92 75 90 75 / 60 40 60 40 LEE 92 78 93 77 / 70 30 70 40 SFB 94 76 92 76 / 70 30 70 40 ORL 93 77 92 77 / 70 30 70 40 FPR 92 75 90 75 / 60 40 60 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Heil