Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
027 FXUS62 KMLB 231137 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 737 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 730 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Atlc ridge axis is draped across central FL which will produce a light southerly flow less than 10 knots, turning SE around 10 knots at coastal terminals behind the sea breeze this aftn. SCT SHRA/TSRA should develop with the sea breeze with highest coverage over northern/interior terminals later this aftn into the eve (KDAB/KSFB/KMCO/KLEE). These TAFs will have a TEMPO for MVFR conds in TSRA roughly 19Z-23Z with VCSH persisting past sunset. The last several runs of the HRRR model have not been excited about diurnal convection but think it is underdoing the coverage. Have less confidence for TEMPO group at MLB-SUA so will maintain liberal usage of VCSH/VCTS there. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Today-Monday...GOES-16 PWAT analysis indicates a distinct moisture boundary across northeast Florida stretching from Cedar Key through southeast Georgia. Deep moisture continues to reside south of this boundary with PWATs observed between 2-2.2" across much of the peninsula. High coverage of showers and storms is forecast each afternoon (60-70%) dominantly driven by diurnal heating and mesoscale boundaries. Poor mid-level lapse rates and minimal wind shear will aid in limiting overall storm intensity. Periods of heavy rainfall and occasional to frequent lightning strikes continue to remain the primary hazards early this week. Large amounts of available moisture combined with weak steering flow could allow for hourly rainfall accumulations between 1-3" causing ponding on roadways and localized flooding of low lying and urban areas. High temperatures are forecast near seasonal values today in the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. A few degrees warmer into Monday, ranging the low 90s area wide. Conditions remain muggy with peak heat index values between 98-103 today and 100-105 tomorrow. Tuesday-Saturday...Moisture becomes reinforced on Tuesday as an area of low pressure lifts off the northeast U.S. coast and an accompanying surface boundary sinks towards Florida. Mid level high pressure across the southern U.S. retreats westward into mid week as an area of troughing digs into the southeast U.S. Another boundary sinks toward the state into Thursday, keeping PWATs elevated into late week. In response, coverage of afternoon showers and storms remain high (60-70%) each afternoon through the mid and long term forecast. A diurnal sea breeze development is expected each afternoon. Light west to southwest flow will generally favor the inland extent of the west coast sea breeze through late week, and any sea breeze collisions are favored across the central or eastern side of the peninsula. Guidance then suggests a transition to easterly flow into the weekend. The greatest hazards with any developing storms continues to be occasional to frequent lightning strikes and periods of locally heavy rainfall. High temperatures remain steady through the period, warming into the low 90s each afternoon. Peak heat index values will generally range between 102-106 through late week. && .MARINE... Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Today-Monday...High pressure over the western Atlantic will promote south to southeast winds across the local waters. Seas of 3 ft gradually subside to 2 ft into Monday night. Scattered to numerous lightning storms are forecast. Tuesday-Thursday...Light southwest to west flow develops over the local Atlantic waters by Tuesday. Winds back southward each afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas remain 2 ft through the period with occasional seas to 3 ft well offshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms continue each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 74 93 76 / 60 40 70 20 MCO 90 75 92 76 / 60 50 70 20 MLB 88 75 91 75 / 60 40 70 30 VRB 89 73 91 74 / 50 40 60 20 LEE 92 76 93 77 / 60 40 70 20 SFB 91 76 93 76 / 60 40 70 20 ORL 91 76 93 77 / 60 40 70 20 FPR 89 73 91 73 / 60 40 70 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Kelly