Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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401 FXUS62 KMLB 221409 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1009 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1006 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Current KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers and lightning storms developing along a convergent line over the local Atlantic which extends from an area of low pressure (Invest AL92) near the Georgia and northeast Florida coasts. Current temperatures are in the upper 70s to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Showers and lighting storms are expected to increase (PoPs ~50-70%) in coverage into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with the weaker west coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms. The main hazards associated with lighting storms are expected to be wind gusts up to 30mph, locally heavy rainfall (1-3" in a short period of time), and frequent lightning strikes. A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists over east central Florida today to the north of the Treasure Coast where 1-3" in a short period of time has the potential to result in minor flooding (5% risk), especially over areas that have recently received heavy rainfall. East to southeast winds are forecast to increase this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland at around 10mph with gusts to 20mph. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100-107 degree range are forecast under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 642 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR prevailing outside of convection. Light south to southeast winds developing after sunrise become onshore around 10 kts as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland this afternoon. VCTS at all terminals ahead of and along the sea breeze. VCTS through 03Z across the northern terminals while transitioning to VCSH overnight at the coastal terminals. Will continue to monitor trends to see if a mention of VCSH will be needed at the northern terminals tonight. Winds become light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 517 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 High pressure centered offshore over the Atlantic will produce a southerly flow this weekend 7-10 knots, enhanced from the SE 10-14 knots behind the sea breeze near the coast. The trailing ridge axis will shift south across the waters early next week ahead of a weak front. As a result, sfc wind flow will develop a more offshore (southwest to west) component but the sea breeze will be able to form each day. Deep moisture will remain place keeping rain and storm chances high with offshore moving storms a concern next week. Seas 3-4 FT today subsiding 2-3 FT Sun then 2 FT Tue- Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 74 91 75 / 60 50 70 30 MCO 92 75 91 75 / 70 50 70 30 MLB 89 75 89 75 / 50 30 60 30 VRB 90 75 90 74 / 50 30 50 30 LEE 93 76 92 76 / 70 60 70 30 SFB 92 75 92 75 / 60 50 70 30 ORL 92 76 92 76 / 70 50 70 30 FPR 90 74 90 73 / 50 30 50 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling AVIATION...Law