311
FXUS64 KTSA 041746
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The MCS that moved through early this morning had pushed southeast
of the CWA with high cloud cover remaining across Southeast
Oklahoma. With the southern push of the storm complex...this had
disrupted the moisture return back into the CWA...noted by
dewpoints in the 60s across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas while 70+ deg dewpoints were advecting northward across
Western/Central Oklahoma. This moisture delay has also helped to
scatter cloud cover across Northeast Oklahoma with temps in the
mid/upper 70s.

Through this afternoon...a frontal boundary...currently located
from the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into North Central Kansas...is
progged to approach the CWA and move into Northeast Oklahoma this
evening. Ahead of the boundary...low level moisture is expected to
expand north and eastward over the CWA this afternoon with
precipitable water values approaching 2 inches by this evening.
Along with the moisture return...an increasingly unstable
atmosphere is expected to develop through the afternoon. In
response...will continue to carry slight to low end chance PoPs
for the CWA for any afternoon diurnal storm development. Any storm
development will have the potential to become strong to severe
with locally damaging wind the primary threat and hail a secondary
threat. The greater storm/severe potentials continue to be this
evening with another MCS developing along the front.

Scattered to broken cloud cover should also continue this
afternoon with temps warming into the upper 70s into low/mid 80s
ahead of the front. If low level cloud cover can expand more into
the CWA with the moisture return...then temps may need to be re
adjusted.  Will continue to monitor trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Another MCS is expected to develop this evening in advance of an
approaching weak frontal boundary. Given the amount of available
instability and moisture, severe storms and locally heavy
rainfall will both be likely with this MCS. Current model
consensus suggests that the greatest severe/heavy rain threat may
be mainly southeast of Interstate 44, but confidence is low on
this scenario. Another short term flood watch may be needed in
some places for this complex, but will hold off for now as
confidence is low in just where the heavy rainfall will occur.

A relatively dry period is then expected Wednesday through Friday
before an uptick in overnight/early morning MCS potential returns
Friday night through the weekend. Have upper NBM pops some and
lowered high temperatures over the weekend based on the latest
trends. Drier weather looks to return early next week with
temperatures near or a bit below the seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds should remain common
across the CWA this afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary from the northwest. Also through the afternoon
hours...there remains potential for a period of scattered/broken
MVFR ceilings...with the greater potential across Northeast
Oklahoma. The frontal boundary is progged to enter Northeast
Oklahoma this evening and move east/southeast through the CWA into
the overnight hours. Convection/MCS is forecast to develop along
this boundary and move through the CWA with gusty to strong winds
and heavy rainfall. A period of IFR/MVFR could also be possible
with the stronger convection tonight. Will continue with Tempo
groups for timing. Behind the precip...west to northerly winds and
improving conditions are forecast...though there is potential for
additional MVFR ceilings to return for parts of the CWA late
tonight into Wednesday morning. During the morning
Wednesday...cloud cover looks to become more scattered from north
to south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  68  88  66 /  20  90   0   0
FSM   84  70  89  64 /  30  90  20   0
MLC   85  68  88  63 /  20  80  10   0
BVO   83  63  87  62 /  30  90   0   0
FYV   81  65  85  62 /  30  90  10   0
BYV   81  66  83  60 /  40  90  20   0
MKO   84  68  86  63 /  30  90  10   0
MIO   82  65  84  62 /  30  90   0   0
F10   85  67  86  63 /  20  90  10   0
HHW   86  70  86  63 /  20  60  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ049-053-065-066-
     070>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20