Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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090 FXUS64 KTSA 221124 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 624 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Shower and thunderstorm development is expected to commence between now and daybreak, with roughly the Interstate 40 corridor being the most likely area for initial development near a southward moving frontal boundary in that vicinity. Storms will spread both north and south of the front with time, and at least a marginal severe weather threat will exist with this early day activity. Storm intensities may ramp up by afternoon near or just north of the frontal boundary from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Hail will be the main severe weather threat north of the boundary, while all hazards will be possible near the Red River in the vicinity of the surface front. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, with the current flood watch remaining valid. Temperatures will be cooler today, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Shower and storm chances will be greatest tonight across southeast Oklahoma, but if convection today forces the surface boundary too far south, coverage and intensity of storms tonight may end up being less than forecast. The frontal boundary starts to return north and wash out Thursday as an upper wave approaches from the west. This will result in another round of showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening, with southern and eastern areas once again favored for greatest storm coverage and heaviest rain amounts. A relative lull in convection is expected Friday into Saturday afternoon before storm chances ramp up again late Saturday and Saturday night as another upper wave moves across the area. A cold front will follow the passage of this system, with drier weather returning Sunday into next week as the upper level pattern changes to a more northwest flow. There is still some uncertainty as to whether we will be completely dry early next week, so just rode with the NBM pops for now which keeps most of the area dry. Temperatures through this period look to be near the seasonal averages for late May. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop generally north of I-40 in eastern OK. Storms are expected to continue gradually expanding south and east through the morning, with areas of MVFr conditions and locally IFR within strong cells. Should see a break early this afternoon before additional strong storms develop from NW AR into SE OK mid to late afternoon. Overall MVFR conditions are expected to be more widespread by this evening with additional rounds of showers and storms possible, mainly SE of I-44. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 77 63 82 68 / 60 30 50 40 FSM 80 66 83 69 / 90 50 50 60 MLC 78 65 82 68 / 90 70 60 50 BVO 77 59 82 65 / 40 10 40 40 FYV 76 62 80 64 / 80 50 50 60 BYV 75 62 80 65 / 60 50 50 60 MKO 75 63 81 66 / 90 50 50 50 MIO 75 61 81 65 / 60 20 40 50 F10 74 63 81 67 / 80 40 60 50 HHW 82 66 82 68 / 80 80 60 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for OKZ049-053-072>076. AR...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...14