977
FXUS64 KLIX 142053
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
353 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A surge of tropical moisture will enhance rain chances
starting Sunday and continuing into next week. Locally heavy
rainfall that could lead to flash flooding especially in poor
drainage areas will be possible especially on Sunday and Monday.

2. Increasing onshore winds into next week will bring a large enough
fetch to increase coastal flooding concerns. Latest forecasts
indicate minor coastal flooding will be possible for east and south-
facing shores by Tuesday into Wednesday.

3. Hazardous marine conditions, especially for small crafts, are
expected as winds and seas increase starting Sunday. Sustained winds
are expected to be approaching 25 to 30 knots with gusts as high as
gale-force by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Short term will be relatively quiet as high pressure remains in
control of the weather. Upper level ridging and subsidence will
keep rain chances low through tomorrow night. The lack of cloud
cover and convection will also allow temperatures to rise into the
mid to upper 90s in the afternoon, with some areas possibly
reaching 100 degrees. The "good" news is that even with the high
afternoon temperatures, slightly drier air aloft will mix down
during the afternoons, which will keep relative humidity a bit
more bearable and should prevent heat index values from rising to
advisory criteria. In general, heat index readings are currently
forecast to peak in the 100 to 105 degree range for most places
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The primary features being monitored in the long-term are to do
with the interaction between deep, tropical moisture from the
Caribbean and upper-troughing lingering over the Gulf of Mexico.
The first feature we`ll be watching is associated with the
decaying frontal boundary over the Yucatan Channel which is quite
convectively active today due to the upper trough imposing upper-
diffluence across the area, venting the convection. With the
easterly Caribbean trade winds piling up over this area of the
northwest Caribbean Sea, this can sometimes be a setup where a
tropical cyclone would try to form. But, fortunately for us,
strong upper troughing is imposing hostile westerly wind shear
across much of the Gulf of Mexico. As this inverted surface trough
begins to be pushed to the northwest by the strengthening Bermuda
high, it appears to stay intact and act similar to that of a
tropical wave. The arrival of this surface trough on Sunday will
locally enhance the pressure gradient and bolster PoPs through the
afternoon. Guidance has trended up with how pronounced this
surface trough is currently, so this has also trended PoPs up as
well. Ample moisture with diffluence aloft from upper troughing
will yield thunderstorms capable of high rain rates of 2 to 3
inches per hour and flash flooding as a result, especially in poor
drainage areas. The risk for locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will be its highest Sunday through Tuesday.

Beyond heavy rainfall discussion, Sunday`s highs won`t be as hot as
Friday and Saturday, but deep tropical moisture combined with
morning to midday sunshine will allow heat indices to get back up
into the 100s before the rain arrives. Thereafter, we cool off with
high PoPs (>70%) associated with deep tropical moisture and
southeasterly, onshore flow. The pressure gradient will be enhanced
as a tropical disturbance develops in the Bay of Campeche with
strong high pressure to our northeast still in place. This will
generate sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph across the coastal areas
with gusts as high as 30 mph. Persistent onshore flow will also
result in a large enough fetch to cause minor coastal flooding
across east and south-facing shores by Tuesday into Wednesday.
Continue to monitor the forecast for further changes.

While the tropics have started to wake up with a couple of
disturbances noted in the NHC outlook, the general pattern will
continue to favor westerly wind shear across the northern Gulf Coast
through the next 7 days which is unfavorable for tropical cyclones.
This is due to strong upper-level ridging centered over the Bay of
Campeche in association with the Central American Gyre (CAG) with
upper troughing still stuck over the northern Gulf Coast. The CAG
will linger over Central America through the next 7-10 days, but
there is no indication of any tropical cyclones bringing impacts to
the northern Gulf Coast for at least the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with winds less
than 10 knots as high pressure remains in control of the local
area weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

High will keep conditions generally benign through Saturday with
light winds and seas 2 feet or less. As the high shifts eastward
on Sunday in response to a broad low developing over the Bay of
Campeche, the pressure gradient will tighten somewhat and cause
winds to strengthen to 10 to 15 knots. Additionally, a surge of
deeper moisture will result in higher rain chances by Sunday as
well. Winds will strengthen further during the first part of the
work week and Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for
most of the coastal waters beginning Monday night with some
potential for gale force gusts as well. The strong east/southeast
winds will persist through at least Wednesday, causing tides to
rise above normal as well. At least minor coastal flooding impacts
appear likely in some of the more vulnerable areas by the high
tide cycle Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  96  71  95 /   0  10   0  30
BTR  75 100  76  94 /   0  10   0  50
ASD  74  97  75  92 /   0  10   0  50
MSY  79  96  79  91 /   0  10   0  60
GPT  76  96  77  91 /   0  10  10  50
PQL  72  98  74  91 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM