000
FXUS64 KLUB 071103
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
603 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Though they have weakened significantly, storms are continuing to
develop behind a gust front which is nearing the southern border of
the FA as of 130 AM. Some of these storms are still producing heavy
rainfall and wind gusts up to 45 mph. These storms will likely
continue for at least the next couple of hours as they are being
sustained by a LLJ. These storms will also need to be monitored for
flooding potential due to high rainfall rates and slow forward
motion.

The upper high will move slightly eastward today and become centered
over the FA. This will allow for afternoon highs to be similar to
yesterday and average near the century mark. Models bring an upper
shortwave across the northern edge of the upper high (across the
Central Plains) late this afternoon into the evening and develop
storms once again across central New Mexico in to southeastern
Colorado/southern Kansas. Models are struggling with potential
convective development with the GFS being the most bullish. The GFS
decays convection as it moves into our northern zones, but the setup
appears to be similar to storms currently pushing through the FA as
another LLJ will be present overnight tonight and could help sustain
night time convection. The one major difference is the upper high
that will be directly overhead and may help suppress convection. For
now PoPs will be kept out of the forecast for tonight, but there is
an overall non-zero chance for additional convection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Confidence is above normal regarding the overall pattern through
early next week complete with rain chances returning this weekend
and continuing into Monday. Friday night opens with an upper high
transiting from central Texas to the northern Gulf Coast by Saturday
afternoon. In the wake of this high, improved moisture recovery
aloft will commence with PWATs returning to 1" or greater by Sunday
just in time for a slow-moving cold front. Precip chances actually
begin as early as Saturday evening across our NW zones near a pre-
frontal surface trough aided by a weak impulse in westerly flow.
Much better PoPs remain in the offing starting Sunday afternoon and
peaking overnight as the cold front encounters very moist PWATs up
to 2" off the Caprock. Heavy rainfall appears reasonable in this
largely anemic westerly flow regime. Cool and moist NE flow
following FROPA will bring about a much cooler Monday with lingering
rain chances under cyclonic NW flow. Farther west meanwhile, upper
ridging over the Four Corner will pinch off another subtropical high
that should expand our way through midweek complete with a return to
hot and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR with light southerly winds becoming gusty from 25-30 knots
later this morning. PVW will be close to a few SHRA/TS for another
hour or so, though these should prove short lived.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93