Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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134
ACUS11 KWNS 201617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201617
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-201815-
Mesoscale Discussion 1341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Areas affected...southeast Lower MI...north OH...west NY...northwest
PA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 201617Z - 201815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and isolated marginally severe
hail will be possible with isolated to scattered pulse-type
thunderstorms surrounding the Lake Erie vicinity this afternoon.
Severe thunderstorm watch issuance in this region is unlikely, but
could be warranted if greater clustering becomes apparent.
DISCUSSION...Pockets of enhanced Cu development are underway to the
west/south of Lake Erie and along the NY/PA border. With remnant
MCVs largely tracking north and northeast of these corridors,
confidence is low in a more concentrated damaging wind threat area
this afternoon. Deep-layer shear will remain weak south of the
quasi-stationary front draped from southeast Lower MI into far
northwest IN, with effective bulk shear from 10-20 kts. This
suggests pulse-type cells should dominate. Isolated, marginally
severe hail of 0.75-1.25 inches in diameter will be possible along
with occasional downbursts from 45-60 mph wind gusts.
..Grams/Hart.. 06/20/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...
GRR...
LAT...LON 42817779 42307732 41867741 41437876 40958021 40818221
40798383 41168474 42078515 42708459 43148246 42817779