465
FXUS63 KPAH 171653
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the week into
the first half of the weekend.

- Afternoon relative humidities are forecast to drop to 25-35%
  through at least Wednesday; however, winds will remain fairly
  light. The drier air and warmer temperatures may lead to an
  increase in brush fire activity across the area, especially
  where very little rain occurred over the past week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Some patchy ground fog is showing up at a few of the observation
sites across the Quad State area this morning; otherwise, fairly
quiet weather conditions are in place with temperatures in the upper
50s and low 60s. Sky conditions are mostly clear across the area.

A dry surface ridge will steadily build across the area today and
then linger through much of the week. At the same time, an upper-
level ridge axis will shift from the Plains eastward across the
entire Quad State region. This will keep very quiet weather in place
with dry conditions lingering through much of the week. The main
concern will be lower afternoon relative humidity values with deeper
afternoon mixing. This will likely lead to relative humidity values
dropping into the 25-35% range through at least Wednesday and
possibly even into Thursday. Winds will remain fairly light, but the
very dry air coupled with above normal temperatures may lead to an
increase in brush fires across the area once again. Areas that
received over an inch of rain may see less of an impact until
Wednesday or Thursday.

The next chance of precipitation doesn`t show up in the forecast
until later Saturday into Sunday. Overall moisture is set to
increase; however, no major forcing is showing up to justify much
more than an isolated chance of showers and storms. Definitely
nothing that looks like a drought buster through this entire
forecast issuance.

Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through the weekend
before cooling off slightly into early next week. Overnight lows are
expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Light northeast surface flow will continue through this
afternoon, with winds becoming calm or light and variable
overnight. With increasing low-level moisture, areas of fog
development are likely again at CGI, PAH, and MVN in the predawn
hours Wednesday. Some IFR or LIFR restrictions are possible at
CGI. Fog will quickly mix out after 13z Wednesday, with light NE
flow continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...DWS