989
FXUS62 KTBW 170046
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
846 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
An U/L trough will persist over the southeast U.S. and Florida
through the week, with an U/L level ridge building over the area
during the weekend.  Deep layer moisture is gradually increasing
over the forecast area, however will be limited to PCPW values of
1.6 to 1.8 inches over the next several days. Weak onshore
boundary layer flow combined with marginal deep layer moisture
will limit convection to scattered activity through much of the
week, with highest pops over the interior and southwest Florida.
High cloudiness over the much of the peninsula will begin to clear
out from northern and central areas on Wednesday, and southwest
Florida Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Weather pattern will look very similiar each day this week. PTC 8
which is expected to push into the Carolinas and slowly push north
will help to keep west to southwest winds to Florida. The biggest
story for us will be the lack of shower activity across the area.
This is due to lower PWs that will be over the state. Our average PW
this time of year is around 1.8 while it looks like we will be
measure more around 1.5 to 1.7 each day. It might not seem that big
of a difference but that slightly lower PW will keep chances of rain
mainly between 20 to 40 percent each day.

An upper level trough looks to push through sometime on Friday which
will shift our upper level flow to the northeast. However, those
lower PWs will still be around keep shower chances between 20 to 40
percent for the weekend. &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Clouds have broken up and we finally see VFR conditions at all
airport in the CWA. This trend looks to continue over the next 24
hours with light winds generally staying below 10 knots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 843 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
VFR conditions expected at all terminals overnight. Areas of
broken MVFR CIGs 015-025 expected to develop after sunrise
Wednesday morning, lifting to VFR and becoming predominately
scattered cloud cover during the afternoon hours. A few afternoon
showers/thunderstorms possible with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs vcnty all
terminals...with lowest probability at SRQ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The forecast will remain mostly the same each day this
week. We will continue to see weak westerly flow each day with winds
around 5 to 10 knots. Shower chances will remain on the lower end
each day hovering around 20 to 40 percent.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through the
weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  90  76  90 /  10  20  10  30
FMY  77  90  76  92 /  20  40  20  60
GIF  75  91  75  93 /  20  50  10  50
SRQ  76  90  76  91 /  20  20  10  30
BKV  71  90  71  91 /  10  30   0  30
SPG  79  90  80  90 /  10  20  10  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery