Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 251220
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
720 AM EST Thu Feb 25 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the TAF
Period.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 320 AM EST Thu Feb 25 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
early this morning is ridging across the Florida Peninsula into the
Atlantic, with a fairly dry airmass remaining in the wake of the
cold front earlier this week. This ridging will favor light winds
and clear skies, with favorable radiational cooling leading to a
cool start to the morning today, with patchy fog possible around
sunrise. Today through the weekend, mid/upper level ridging will
build over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico as surface high
pressure holds across the Florida Peninsula. This stacked ridging
will favor broad subsidence, with stable conditions leading to
clear skies and warming temperatures. By this weekend, afternoon
max temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 80s to around
90 away from the immediate coast, with a few records in danger of
being broken or tied. Otherwise, morning fog will be the only
weather concern, with rain chances remaining near zero.

On Monday, an upper level trough swinging through the Great Lakes
and upper Midwest will support a surface cold front that will move
into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and slowly push into
the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday and Wednesday. While this
frontal passage will increase rain chances slightly, the weak
push of the front will keep rain chances limited. The weak front
also means that while temperatures will back away from record
warmth, temperatures are expected to still remain several degrees
above normal through the middle of next week.



MARINE...
High pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will ridge into
the Atlantic through the weekend, with northerly winds becoming
easterly and turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with
the sea breeze. Winds and seas will remain below headline
criteria, with negligible rain chances.

FIRE WEATHER...
A dry airmass filling into the region will result in relative
humidity percentages dropping into the low 30s for a few hours this
afternoon, with the lowest humidities over the interior. Despite
this dry air, wind speeds will be too low to trigger Red Flag
warnings.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  79  59  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  83  62  86  67 /   0   0  10   0
GIF  81  57  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  79  59  81  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  80  50  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  77  62  79  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...27/Shiveley
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle



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