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000
FXUS62 KTBW 161749
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
149 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Zonal flow remains in place aloft over the region with a low moving
over the Great Lakes region and high pressure to our south. At the
surface, weak high pressure extends over the southern half of the
Florida peninsula with a nearly stationary frontal boundary draped
to our north. This setup is keeping a generally southwest flow in
place across the region. Showers and a few thunderstorms have been
ongoing since this morning, especially across our northern counties,
closer to the frontal boundary, and these will continue to slowly
expand southward but also diminish in coverage as the boundary sinks
southward through tonight.

Thursday will bring a brief shot of cooler and drier air as high
pressure builds over the southeast. These nicer conditions will be
most felt across the Nature Coast region, where some 50s dew points
are forecast. This will be short-lived as an area of low pressure
develops over the central Gulf of Mexico and starts to head toward
Florida on Friday. Flow becomes southeast, with plenty of tropical
moisture spreading over the region. This area of low pressure
currently has a percent chance of becoming a tropical system within
the next 5 days and bears watching. Global models are in general
agreement that this system will make its way toward the region
through the weekend, but the overall evolution still needs to be
refined and these details will obviously play a large part in our
local impacts. For now, those impacts include cloudy and showery
conditions for Saturday and into Sunday. We will also need to keep a
close eye on possible severe weather, mainly Friday night into
Saturday, as well as the possibility of some coastal flooding issues
into the weekend. Still have a couple of days to hopefully nail down
some details, so stay tuned to future forecasts.

High pressure will build back over the area late Sunday or Monday,
although we are not currently forecast to completely dry out. Then
another low pressure system will bring a cold front near the region
toward the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Will keep VCSH in the forecast for all sites through tonight as a
frontal boundary sinks southward and weakens. Some brief MVFR cigs
will be possible, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Light
and variable winds tonight will become generally northwesterly on
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
A frontal boundary will continue so sink southward across the region
through tonight, with some shower activity possible. Southwest winds
today will become more northwest and then north tonight through
Thursday. A low pressure system will approach the area Friday
through the weekend, with increasing rain chances as well as winds
and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A frontal boundary will continue to sink southward across the region
through tonight, bringing a few showers to the area. Some drier air
will move into mainly the Nature Coast for Thursday, but relative
humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels. A low
pressure system will approach the area Friday through the weekend,
bringing increased rain chances. No significant fog is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  73  85  68  82 /  30  10   0  30
FMY  75  88  73  87 /  20  20  10  40
GIF  72  86  68  83 /  20  20   0  20
SRQ  75  87  71  85 /  30  10  10  30
BKV  69  84  63  80 /  30  10   0  30
SPG  75  85  71  84 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

05/Carlisle