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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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340 FXUS64 KTSA 271539 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1039 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Today will feature a minor break in the heat compared to the past several days. Most forecast parameters look good at the moment, however current dew point trends do favor higher values than NBM and closer to NAM12 values. Have adjusted dew points up a few degrees, though this still keeps Heat Index values below 100 for the most part. Different story tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Isolated convection may affect parts of mainly northeast Oklahoma late tonight/early Friday morning and again late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Otherwise, the heat will return for Friday and Saturday with the excessive heat watch continuing for parts of northeast Oklahoma Friday afternoon. Much of the rest of the area will likely need heat headlines as well both Friday and Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up late Saturday and especially Saturday night and Sunday as a weak frontal boundary pushes south into the area. Much of the area will see another brief respite from the heat again Sunday as a result. The heat will return in full force early next week, although the NBM numbers look a bit excessive especially given recent and possible future rainfall. Lowered afternoon highs slightly as a result early next week, but heat headlines will likely be needed again regardless. Another weak frontal boundary will increase shower and storm chances again later next week, likely just in time for the Independence Day holiday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Aside from potential for some pockets of reduced visibility this morning for NW AR sites, VFR conditions are expected through the period with FEW to SCT mid and high clouds. There is low potential for BVO to experience a brief period of lower vsbys this morning as well, but confidence was not high enough to mention in TAF. Late in the period, scattered showers and storms may drift into portions of NE OK, potentially impacting BVO. However, due to uncertainty regarding coverage, did not include in the forecast for now. Sfc winds forecast to generally remain below 10 kts out of the E/SE today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 93 76 98 81 / 0 20 20 20 FSM 94 71 97 78 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 93 73 96 78 / 0 10 10 10 BVO 92 72 98 77 / 10 30 30 30 FYV 91 66 93 74 / 0 10 10 10 BYV 90 67 93 75 / 0 10 10 20 MKO 92 72 96 78 / 0 10 10 20 MIO 91 71 93 78 / 0 30 30 20 F10 91 72 96 78 / 0 10 10 20 HHW 92 70 94 77 / 0 0 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for OKZ055-056-060>062-066-067-070. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...43