Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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488 FXUS63 KAPX 190728 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 328 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storm chances this afternoon and evening - Hot temperatures this afternoon before cold front moves through today - Relief from heat, shower/thunderstorm chances continue at times through the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current satellite and surface observations show a surface low over Lk Superior this morning moving eastward. Radar shows showery convection all along the cold front as it moves across the MI U.P. Colder air behind this boundary is starting to move into the arrowhead of MN. In the upper levels, a short wave trough is moving over northern MN while an upper ridge is centered over the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger southwest winds are present in between these two features. CAMs depict a decent LLJ around 925mb with speeds around 45kts, this is leading to gusts around 15 to 25 mph near the surface over NW lower. The surface feature will continue northeast today, and accelerate ahead of upper level support. Due to this, and the center of the surface low continuing to move away from the CWA, the trailing cold front will weaken as it reaches northern MI. CAMs suggest some isolated convection as it initially moves through the CWA (possibly 1,000 to 2,000 j/kg of SBCAPE ahead of the boundary), with better chances possibly over NE lower in this intial push in the afternoon hours. A cooler air mass near the surface will continue to slide into northern MI this evening as the center of the upper high starts to shift westward, creating more zonal flow over the state. Mid to upper level moisture will still be rotating around the high, and intersecting with our CWA (upper level flow more parallel to the surface boundary). CAMs depict showers forming over the stable air at the surface (MUCAPE is existent), and moving over NW lower later this evening and into tonight. Temperatures will be hot and humid again today, with plenty of sunshine in the morning before that boundary moves through. Cooler temperatures will settle in behind the front, with higher moisture amounts lingering through the night. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: The CWA will likely see isolated to possibly scattered storms in the initial surge of the cold front. Although there is still some uncertainty in timing the frontal passage, wind rose plots show the front passing through from 4pm to 8 pm. This allows temperatures to warm this afternoon into the high 80s to low 90s again, and will aid in the creation of around 1,000 to 1,500 j/kg of elevated instability for the evening hours. Upper level heights will either remain unchanged or even dip slightly today. A mid level cap could still be present, however at least a storm or two should initiate along the boundary (possibly a few more). Very little severe concerns with these storms, however heavy rain could be seen with storms (with an environment favorable for storms to train). One thing that could inhibit storms from initiating is if clouds move in ahead of the boundary. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Pattern Synopsis: After strong ridging gripped the region for the first half of the week, the mid/upper-level pattern across the eastern half of the CONUS will begin to flatten heading into the weekend. Broad surface high pressure will also gradually work east of the region into Saturday as multiple shortwaves look to punch overhead this weekend, supporting a cyclone that looks to trek across the Great Lakes in the late Saturday/early Sunday timeframe. Surface high pressure then looks to build back in by early next week. Forecast Details: Relief from heat, shower/storm chances through weekend -- After a several day stretch of highs in the upper 80s/low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s and 70s, northern Michigan will finally experience relief from the heat during the second half of this week as a boundary settles across the middle of the state. This will leave cooler temperatures in place north of the boundary, with highs expected to range from the upper 60s to low 80s Thursday and Friday. As has been the case the last several days, chances for showers/ storms will continue at times through the upcoming weekend. Highest confidence comes at the beginning of the period Thursday as scattered showers and embedded storms are expected to work across northern Michigan through the morning and afternoon. Low- end chances persist after this before the next main round of rain/storms returns to the area Saturday into early Sunday. While relatively high uncertainty still remains in where heaviest rainfall may set up, forecast PWAT values approaching 2" -- which would exceed climatological max values for the end of the June -- will support efficient rainfall with any convection. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible with rainfall totals in excess of 1". Forecast details pertaining to more specific timing/locations/amounts are expected to become more clear in upcoming forecast cycles. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Upstream cold front currently stretching thru the length of Minnesota into the Central Plains will march eastward into the Western Great Lakes region overnight into Wednesday. Chances of showers and storms will gradually increase on Wednesday along and ahead of this front. Prevailing conditions will remain VFR...but will temporarily drop to MVFR/IFR within any heavier showers and storms that develop. LLWS will develop overnight into Wednesday morning as winds just off the deck strengthen ahead of the approaching cold front. Southerly surface winds at around 10 kts overnight will shift to the west at 10 to 20 kts...and eventually shift to the NW Wednesday afternoon/evening as this cold front sweeps thru our area. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELD LONG TERM...DJC AVIATION...MLR