076
FXUS63 KARX 212359
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
659 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of heavy rain are still to come through
  Saturday. Many areas are still expected to receive 2-4 inches
  of rainfall with localized 6+ inch totals, including rain
  that has already fallen today. These rains will pose a risk
  for flash flooding, particularly if storms repeatedly track
  over the same area.

- Widespread river flooding remains likely. While exact basins affected
  will depend of course on where the heaviest rain occurs, with
  this rain being routed to the Mississippi, flooding there may
  last into next week.

- Severe thunderstorms remain the secondary concern today and Saturday,
  with mainly a risk for damaging winds. This threat is highly
  conditional on daytime breaks in our periodic heavy rain
  occurring.

- After a welcome respite from the rain Sunday and Monday,
  Monday night and Tuesday may feature additional thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Through Saturday: Heavy Rain and Flooding Likely

Our well advertised heavy rain event began unfolding this morning as
a thunderstorm complex moved west to east across the CWA. As
expected, trajectory largely followed the consensus of CAM guidance,
with an axis from Dodge Center to Neillsville picking up 1 to 2
inches based on radar estimates. Additional returns have been seen
through the morning in S MN, roughly along the location of the 850mb
front.

This afternoon into tonight, the potential for an extended period
with flood producing moderate to heavy rain exists. With light to
moderate showers occurring in S MN along the 850mb front this
morning, expect this to reinforce the outflow boundary from our
early morning MCS. This outflow boundary will serve to both increase
convergence along the surface front that will slowly lift northward
to the I-90 corridor while also limiting the northward progression
of this front. With multiple shortwaves translating downstream in
the west-southwesterly flow aloft, expect additional showers to
develop along the 850mb boundary through the afternoon, mainly
affecting areas north of I-90, perhaps as far northeast as Clark
County, which was added to the Flood Watch due to collaboration
concerns. As southerly low level moist advection ramps up across the
central Plains and IA as the main upper trough finally advances over
the Rockies, expect an area of roughly 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to
develop south of the front. With low level convergence also on the
increase due to factors described previously, expect widespread
convection to develop roughly along the I-90 corridor this afternoon
and evening. Progged PWAT values are approaching 2 inches -
exceeding the 99th percentile of model climatology in some locations
- so expect these to be efficient rain producers with at
least a repeat of the 1 to 2 inches of rain seen this morning
expected this afternoon and evening. Finally, storm motions are
either along the front or a bit southwesterly, suggesting corridors
of training storms are possible.

As we move into Friday night and Saturday morning, increasing
700/850mb moist advection should lead to additional showers and
thunderstorms developing with top end rain rate potential only
increasing as PWAT values reach beyond model climatological
maximums. While the front - and consequently area of new
shower/storm development - should slowly shift southward into NE IA
under influence of outflow from previous thunderstorms, corridors of
heavy rain will continue to be likely as this additional rainfall
moves along the boundary. Main change from previous forecast was to
continue to shift the axis of highest QPF southward to NE IA. Have
expanded the Areal Flood Watch to include Fayette, Clayton, and
Grant Counties as a result.

Saturday into Saturday evening, main upper trough finally pushes
west to east, ushering the front to our southeast. Before it does
so, with plenty of moisture remaining in the southeastern CWA,
additional moderate to heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible.
Main area to watch may be some basins in NE IA as these could be
affected by both Friday night`s rainfall and Saturday afternoons.
Good news - in a relative sense as high rain rates are still
expected given the very moist atmosphere - is that the progressive
motion of the front should limit problems.

In summary, including rain that has already fallen, most of the CWA
is favored to see 2 to 4 inches of rain with localized amounts
greater than 6 inches possible, with these localized high end
amounts favored to occur mainly along the I-90 corridor south to NE
IA west of the MS River. This will likely lead to river flooding in
the coming days and potentially flash flooding (risk level 3 of 4
per WPC).

Through Saturday: Severe Thunderstorm Potential

Given the 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE expected to build this afternoon in
NE IA and SE MN, a severe thunderstorm cannot totally be ruled out
as thunderstorms develop in the vicinity of the front. With progged
0-6km shear values around 35 knots, cannot rule out a stray rotating
updraft, but overall hodographs exhibit little curvature.
Additionally, the warm, moist soundings would greatly limit hail
risk as any stones fall to the surface. Therefore, only concerned
about a sporadic severe wind gust, with even this having a very low
potential for occurrence.

Saturday presents a highly conditional risk for severe storms. With
upper level winds on the increase ahead of the upper trough, there
is the potential for perhaps 50 knots of 0-6km bulk shear with a
good amount of turning in the low to mid levels. Additionally, some
guidance suggests closer to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE could develop in the
SE CWA. Thus, while warm profiles will limit hail risk, should
sufficient destabilization occur, both damaging wind and perhaps a
tornado could occur.

Monday Night and Tuesday: Next Round of Thunderstorm Potential

After a welcome break from the active weather Sunday into Monday,
Monday night into Tuesday. CSU ML severe outlooks suggest some risk
for severe thunderstorms but overall, timing of the next upper wave
appears not to be optimal for our CWA, with severe favored to our
northwest Monday and to our southeast Tuesday. With 3-4 days to go,
will need to continue to keep an eye on this.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Thunderstorms have pushed south of the TAF sites with a few
showers still lifting northeast. The warm front is forecast to
remain to the south this evening, but lift north overnight ahead
of a deepening surface low. Convection continues out west and
to the south. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
increasing later this evening and overnight as the low level jet
and moisture transport ramps up across Iowa. The CAMs have a
variety of solutions, with a near TAF or just south of TAF sites
location of the storms during the morning hours. Did include
VCTS/tempo group then and with the frontal passage Saturday
afternoon. Messing ceiling/vsby forecast as a result with the
deep moisture and precipitation forecast to remain over the
area. VFR becoming MVFR/IFR/LIFR and patchy VLIFR conditions at
times through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Have expanded the flood watch eastward to encompass western
Wisconsin with the latest QPF estimates from the convective
models. The greatest threat for heavy rain still exists along
and west of the Mississippi River, but confidence in the exact
location of the heavy rainfall remains on the low side given how
sensitive the forecast to even small shifts in the movement of
the storms and their effects on subsequent storm morphology.
However, confidence is high in a widespread corridor of 2-4
inches along I-90 with pockets of 5-8 inches of rain not out of
the question.

River flooding concerns will last well into next week and
multiple rivers could exceed moderate flood stage if the
rainfall lines up correctly in their basins. Have also issued
new flood watches for river flooding at various locales along
the Mississippi River and its tributaries where the highest
rainfall totals look to be lining up.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for WIZ029-032>034-
     041>044-053>055-061.
MN...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.
IA...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Zapotocny
HYDROLOGY...Skow