Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
351 FXUS64 KCRP 210858 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 358 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 A quieter short term forecast than in recent days, however we will continue to see isolated to scattered showers through the area as deep moisture remains high - near 2" - though well below the near 3 inches we saw Wednesday evening. Coastal flooding continues, especially along the bays where water will be slow to retreat. Guidance indicates another high tide nearing 3ft above MSL today, so will leave the coastal flood warning in effect for now, but may be able to cut back to an advisory by this evening. Will monitor today. The rip current risk however will remain high through tomorrow as long period swells continue to push toward the coast. High temperatures both today and tomorrow will remain below normal - around 90. Low temperatures however are seasonal in the mid and upper 70s with humid conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Key Messages: - Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development - Dangerous heat returns with a moderate risk for heat-related impacts The keyword for the long term is going to be uncertainty. Let`s start with what we do know, an upper-level ridge will build aloft as a mid-level ridge moves southwestward from the Mid-Atlantic States. And this is where uncertainty begins. This should increase subsidence and reduce cloud cover by early next week and allow warmer temperatures to return to the forecast with PWAT values remaining in the top 10th percentile of climatology ranging from 2- 2.20". If this solution pans out, then dangerous heat index values will return with a 40-60% chance of heat index values over 110 degrees Tuesday through Thursday of next week with a moderate risk of heat-relates impacts. However, the National Hurricane Center will be continuing to monitor the Bay of Campeche for possible tropical development as the Central American Gyre remains active. Probabilities for tropical development at this time is at 60% over the next 7 days. If a tropical cyclone does develop, then that could definitely alter the scenario above. If a system does develop and moves west-northwestward or northwestward as per the NHC forecast, then increased cloud cover can be expected with heat indices being a few degrees less and rain chances could be significantly higher than the scenario above. Due to the high uncertainty, heavily leaned on the NBM which is a blend of multiple models to show the range of solutions. Please check back this weekend and into next week as the forecast becomes clearer and confidence increased one way or another. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Have added VCSH mentioned, mainly for eastern sites as isolated showers continue in the area, and with very deep moisture, this is likely to continue. Primarily MVFR conditions are expected east, though at times this will break out to VFR. Some question as to fog development in this morning. Recent rains would increase rain chances if winds can weaken enough. Have mention at ALI, but left out at VCT where showers are more possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Wave heights continue to gradually subside, but remain rough today. Small craft advisory conditions are expected through the day in open waters. Expect a light to moderate onshore flow to persist. Scattered showers will remain in the forecast through the weekend. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 78 90 78 / 30 30 50 30 Victoria 89 74 91 73 / 40 20 10 10 Laredo 92 76 91 75 / 40 20 60 20 Alice 91 75 91 75 / 40 20 50 20 Rockport 91 81 92 80 / 40 30 40 30 Cotulla 92 76 93 75 / 30 10 30 0 Kingsville 90 76 90 77 / 40 30 60 30 Navy Corpus 89 82 89 82 / 40 40 50 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245- 342>345-347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ250-255- 270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...PH/83 LONG TERM....JCP/84 AVIATION...PH