Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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620 FXUS63 KDLH 130815 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 315 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog this morning will dissipate shortly after sunrise - Scattered showers with a few isolated storms today. Some storms could be strong enough to produce pea sized hail and gusts to 40 mph. - Quiet weather for Friday - Active weather returns Saturday with severe risk increasing Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Current conditions/This morning: Thunderstorm activity has dissipated across the region. A few areas of patchy to dense fog have sprung up in the wake of the precipitation. This low cloud is not expected to linger long after sunrise. Today: Cooler temperatures today with only a few spots climbing into the lower 80s. Most locations will remain in the 70s. Cyclonic flow aloft as a shortwave trough digs through the region will generate some showers and isolated storms through this afternoon and evening. Convective parameter space does not look to be overly impressive with bulk shear around 40 kts and instability of a couple hundred J/kg. Enough to generate some gusty winds around 40 mph as well as some pea size hail. Friday/Saturday: High pressure and quiet weather settles in for Friday with highs in the 70s. This high pressure does not stick around long as it is quickly brushed off to the east for the weekend with southerly flow streaming back into the Northland. The increased moisture advection back across the region will lend itself to PoPs inundating the forecast. Sunday into early next week/ Next Severe Threat There are some early signatures in the 00Z suite of deterministic guidance that suggests severe potential may once again ramp up Sunday and into early next week. We will be looking at some warmer temps as a thermal ridge nudges into the Northland. Current highs for Sunday are in the 80s. The aforementioned southerly flow will promote PW increasing towards 1.3" Our environment will certainly be unstable the main question will be if we have any good synoptic features to act as strong triggers. Both the Euro and the GFS highlight a cold front approaching from the west but timing still remains contested. Depending on the evolution of this boundary both Sunday and Monday could become quite active weather days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Thunderstorm activity is starting to wane this morning with the only cell still in our area over Itasca. Storm track motion puts this cell through HIB shortly after TAF time. This cell could produce some pea sized hail. Fog may develop later this morning and linger a few hours after sunrise. After the fog clears we expect VFR conditions through the day. Some diurnally driven cumulus and showers with some isolated storms will be possible in the afternoon. Winds will also be gusty out of the northwest. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Areas of dense fog this morning along the North Shore are expected to dissipate after 10 AM. Westerly winds will increase today with gusts up to 20 kts. Stronger winds are expected near the head of the Lake where a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. Showers and a few isolated storms will develop this afternoon and persist into the evening. Primary threats will be pea sized hail and gusts to 40 mph. Quiet weather for Friday with light winds and mostly sunny skies. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>142. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143>145. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Britt