925
FXUS62 KMFL 231648
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1248 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Broad mid to upper level ridding will continue to build over South
Florida through the end of the week as a mid level trough continues
to push northeastward. This should keep a light east to southeast
flow across the area, allowing the east coast sea breeze to
propagate relatively far inland today and tomorrow so shower and
thunderstorm concerns over eastern metro areas remains nearly
nonexistent. The steering flow aloft will remain northerly through
the end of the week and this will keep the highest chances of shower
and thunderstorm development over southern and western areas of
South Florida. The potential for strong thunderstorm development
will remain low due to a lack of synoptic scale forcing and rather
low instability, however, an isolated strong storm containing gusty
winds cannot be ruled out especially over southwestern areas where
sea breeze boundaries and thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide.
High temperatures today and Friday will generally rise into the
upper 80s to around 90 along the east coast and into the lower to
mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Heading into the upcoming weekend, the mid level ridge remains in
place over the region, however, it may weaken just a bit during the
first part of the weekend in response to a mid level trough moving
through the Mid Atlantic states and pushing off into the western
Atlantic. At the surface, a frontal boundary associated with a
developing area of low pressure will move across portions of the
Southeast.  While this frontal boundary will not get anywhere close
to South Florida, it may cause the winds to become more southerly
over the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances will still be
sea breeze driven, however, with a drier north to northwesterly
steering flow aloft, the chances of showers and thunderstorms will
be rather low. The best chances of showers and storms will be
focused over the interior sections as well as the metro and coastal
areas of Palm Beach and Broward Counties. With the south to
southwesterly wind flow developing, hot conditions will develop
over the region. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will
generally range from the lower 90s across the east and west coast
to the mid to upper 90s across the interior sections as well as the
Lake Okeechobee region. Heat indices will have the potential to
range between 100 and 105 during this time frame.

Moving into the early to middle portion of next week, mid level
ridging across the region on Monday will begin to break down on
Tuesday and Wednesday as a deepening mid level trough pushes into
the eastern portion of the country. At the surface, a developing
area of low pressure will push into the Great Lakes region and
Southeastern Canada during this time frame. The frontal boundary
associated with this system will push through the Southeast and
into Northern Florida. Uncertainty remains high for this part of
the forecast as this is towards the end of the forecast period
and guidance remains in disagreement with how far south the front
progresses through the Florida Peninsula.  With the potential for
moisture to increase, the chances of showers and thunderstorms may
increase heading towards the middle portion of the week. The bigger
concern will be the heat as south to southwesterly wind flow will
remain in place during this time out ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary. High temperatures could rise into the lower to
mid 90s across the east coast metro areas and into the upper 90s
across the interior sections. With moisture advection taking place,
heat indices could have the potential to range between 100 and 105
across the region with localized interior sections ranging between
105 and 110. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Sea breeze development
is likely this afternoon and tomorrow, maintaining easterly flow
across eastern sites and westerly at APF. Any showers and storms
that do develop will likely remain across interior South Florida
away from terminals.  &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

In general, a gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will remain in
place across the region through the end of the week across the local
waters. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where
winds will shift to the west southwest each afternoon due to the
Gulf breeze developing. Winds will gradually become more southerly
across all local waters as the upcoming weekend progresses. Seas
across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less
while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less through
the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend.  Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the
Atlantic and Gulf waters each day.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

With onshore flow remaining in place, a moderate risk of rip
currents will continue across the Palm Beaches through the end of
the week and into the first part of the weekend.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  90  77  92 /   0   0   0  20
West Kendall     73  93  74  94 /   0  10  10  20
Opa-Locka        76  92  77  94 /   0   0   0  20
Homestead        75  90  76  92 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  76  89  78  91 /   0   0  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  76  90  77  92 /   0   0  10  20
Pembroke Pines   77  94  77  95 /   0   0   0  20
West Palm Beach  73  90  75  93 /   0   0   0  20
Boca Raton       74  90  76  93 /   0   0  10  20
Naples           77  91  77  92 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Rizzuto