145
FXUS62 KMLB 031744
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
144 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VCSH/VCTS along and ahead of the east coast sea breeze this
afternoon, gradually clearing at the coastal terminals. TEMPOs
included at MCO/ISM (21/23Z) and LEE (22/24Z) where there is the
greatest confidence in TSRA impacts. Coverage of showers and
storms across the interior are forecast to diminish after 02/03Z.
South to southeast winds become east with the passage of the sea
breeze, generally remaining around 10 kts or less. Light and
variable winds tonight.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Sfc analysis shows weak Atlc low level ridge axis continues to
lift north, currently located across NE FL. A more dominant
onshore flow on the south side of this ridge will produce an
earlier sea breeze onset. In fact, radar, satellite and sfc
observations indicate the sea breeze boundary has formed along the
entire EC FL coast with a little better momentum south of the
Cape. Isolated showers have formed along the boundary and these
will progress inland with the sea breeze and develop into
lightning storms. The isolated showers over the Atlc will diminish
as they approach the coast due to the subsidence behind the sea
breeze.

Early morning Cape sounding shows considerable low level moisture
so not surprising diurnal cu field has been quick to form but some
drier air is present above 700 mb producing DCAPE of 1000J/kg
which should support a better chance for stronger wind gusts in
storms. Rain/storm chances will be highest over the interior late
this aftn and early this evening as a result of sea/lake/outflow
boundary collisions. Widespread mid 90s across the interior and
lower 90s coast will combine with high dewpoints to produce peak
heat indices 103 to 107 for most of the area. Heat stress will be
a concern for those spending long durations outside esp in direct
sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Today-Sunday... A high pressure axis will hold north of Florida
through Friday, leading to light daytime SE breezes up to 10 KT
(locally enhanced at the coast during the afternoon). Winds become
light SW late in the overnight hours. The high pressure axis will
settle southward through the local Atlantic this weekend, with light
(5-12 KT) S/SE winds by day turning offshore at night. Seas 2-3 FT
through the period, with a light to moderate chop over the
Intracoastal. A few showers or isolated storms are forecast during
the overnight and early morning hours offshore, shifting closer to
the coast in the late morning and early afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  92  76  91 /  10  50  10  30
MCO  77  95  76  94 /  30  50  10  40
MLB  77  92  77  91 /  10  40  10  40
VRB  76  92  76  91 /  10  30  10  40
LEE  78  95  78  94 /  50  60  20  50
SFB  77  94  77  94 /  30  50  10  40
ORL  77  95  78  94 /  30  50  10  40
FPR  76  92  76  91 /  10  30  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Law