Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
160 FNUS72 KMLB 081040 FWSMLB Spot Forecast for WBTWMA Unit 4D...FWC National Weather Service Melbourne FL 640 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on July 08. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... A Heat Advisory is in effect today. Afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and high humidity will combine to result in Heat Index values up to 112 under partly sunny skies. This level of heat can affect anyone without adequate precautions. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze moves inland and converges with the west coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms. The main hazard with slow moving showers and storms will be locally heavy rainfall (1-3" with local amounts up to 4+"). A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall exists today for this reason. Additionally, isolated strong storms capable of wind gusts up to 40-50mph and occasional to frequent lightning strikes are forecast this afternoon. Rain and storm chances diminish after sunset and end by midnight. Light west-southwest winds are forecast to back east-southeast briefly this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze moves inland near or just to the east of the burn site. Dispersion values will be Poor to Fair. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......80 percent. LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 1-8 strikes until 1400, then 9-15 strikes until 1700, then 16-25 strikes. Max temperature.....Around 98. Min humidity........51 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL increasing to 6000 ft AGL late in the morning, then increasing to 6600 ft AGL early in the afternoon decreasing to 4200 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 9 mph. Dispersion index....14 increasing to 28 late in the morning, then increasing to 39 late in the afternoon decreasing to 32 late in the afternoon. LVORI...............4 decreasing to 2 late in the morning. TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........36 26 29 34 54 66 70 69 72 Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC DEF Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 80 LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 Temp............84 89 92 94 96 96 96 96 91 RH..............82 70 62 56 51 51 51 53 64 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW S SW S SW 20 FT wind spd..3 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 20 FT wind gust.5 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.5 4.2 5.2 6.0 6.6 5.6 4.2 2.6 Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S W Transp wind spd.6 6 5 5 5 5 7 7 9 Dispersion idx..10 17 24 32 36 40 43 35 32 LVORI...........4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of pcpn......80 percent. LAL.................16-25 strikes until 2000, then 9-15 strikes until 2200, then 1-8 strikes until 2400, then No Tstms. Min temperature.....Around 76. Max humidity........97 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 6 mph early in the evening becoming light, then becoming west around 5 mph early in the evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the evening. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West around 7 mph shifting to the southwest around 8 mph early in the evening, then shifting to the west 5 to 8 mph early in the evening shifting to the southwest around 5 mph overnight. Dispersion index....15 decreasing to 4 early in the evening. LVORI...............3 increasing to 7. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........73 81 75 80 61 56 Weather cov.....DEFNTE CHANCE S CHC Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).80 30 20 10 10 10 LAL.............4 3 2 1 1 1 Temp............90 82 80 79 77 77 RH..............64 82 85 88 94 94 20 ft wind......SW 6 NW 5 W 5 W 3 SW 2 SW 2 20 ft wind gust.8 7 7 5 3 3 Mix hgt (ft)....1700 1000 400 400 400 400 Transport wind..W 7 NW 8 W 8 W 5 SW 5 SW 5 Dispersion idx..19 5 5 2 2 2 LVORI...........3 5 5 6 7 7 .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers early in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms late in the morning. Showers likely late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......70 percent. LAL.................No Tstms until 1100, then 9-15 strikes. Max temperature.....Around 91. Min humidity........68 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the morning. Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 3100 ft AGL late in the morning. Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 12 mph. Dispersion index....4 increasing to 18 late in the morning, then increasing to 30 late in the morning decreasing to 22 late in the afternoon. LVORI...............8 decreasing to 4 in the late morning and afternoon. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........60 47 71 72 Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).10 50 50 70 LAL.............1 1 3 3 Temp............77 82 89 87 RH..............94 85 68 70 20 FT wind......SW 2G3 SW 3G5 SW 7G9 SW 7G9 Mix hgt (ft)....400 1400 3100 2600 Transport wind..SW 5 SW 7 W 9 W 10 Dispersion idx..2 13 30 29 LVORI...........8 4 3 3 $$ Forecaster...Fehling Requested by...Melanie Mancuso Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2417567.0/MLB .DELDT 07/08/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Melanie.Mancuso@myfwc.com