601
FXUS63 KMPX 261945
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
245 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather continues the rest of today and most of Thursday,
with our next round of showers and thunderstorms arriving late
Thursday through Friday morning.

- Quiet weather again this weekend, followed by what looks to be
  our strongest weather system of the period arriving Monday
  into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

If you have not had the chance to get outside and enjoy the fabulous
weather today, we highly recommend doing so! Temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s continue under isolated to scattered cumulus with
satellite imagery showing a lack of significant cloud cover over the
entirety of the MPX CWA. There are denser blankets of cloud cover
over portions of northwestern Minnesota that are slowly drifting
southwards, however by the time they arrive we will be losing our
daylight and with that the efficient mixing required to keep them,
with our cloud cover remaining sporadic overnight as temperatures
fall into the 50s. Tomorrow will be similar to today except
with increasing cloud cover as an upper level jet slides across
the area ahead of a strengthening 850mb jet that will develop
later in the day towards Friday morning, introducing our next
chance for more widespread showers and storms through Friday
morning. As the jet strengthens and moves towards Minnesota from
the west, expect increasing cloud cover and chances for showers
beginning Thursday evening but becoming more likely after
midnight. There is a chance for thunderstorms within the showers
with strong forcing supplied by the LLJ, however instability is
fairly limited due to cooler temperatures and lapse rates are
poor such that severe weather is not currently expected. Most
guidance produces a weak surface low over northern Minnesota
towards the nose of the jet Friday morning, with a weak cold
front sliding southwards across the area with showers becoming
isolated into Friday afternoon before dissipating completely.

As the showers wrap on Friday, the weekend looks to return to
quieter conditions as we transition towards the next bigger system
arriving early next week. Zonal flow aloft Saturday into Sunday
coincides with the occlusion of the surface low from Friday, which
by Saturday is over the Great Lakes and by Sunday is pushing over
the Atlantic. Weak surface high pressure slides across the area with
weak subsidence as upper level flow turns northwesterly on the
western side of the departing trough. Temperatures generally remain
comfortable in the mid 70s for highs and 50s for lows through
Tuesday. Our next larger system looms by the second half of Monday
with a digging upper level trough over western North America
producing a surface low with yet another strong 850mb jet advecting
moisture northwards from the southern CONUS. Ensemble guidance shows
a varied range of precipitation amounts such that confidence in area
totals is low at this point, with significant differences both run
to run and between different deterministic solutions. A prime
example being the FV3 core struggles to produce a surface low but
keeps widespread showers as a result of the LLJ strength, meanwhile
the ECMWF/CAN models prefer a moderately strong surface low moving
through southern Ontario from west to east, dragging a cold front
across the region by Tuesday morning. The latter solution would
result in more significant precipitation potential as well as a
better chance for thunderstorms with a much better shear and
instability profile ahead of the cold front late Monday into
Tuesday. For now, expect another wet 24-36 hour period beginning
Monday afternoon through Tuesday with the potential for more
significant precipitation accumulations than the incoming
Thursday/Friday system. We will continue to monitor the trends and
provide updates as we hopefully get better alignment of guidance
over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Aside from a few to sct stratocu stretched across AXN
over to EAU, its a great day to fly. The scattered cloud cover is
expected to linger through the overnight into tomorrow at low VFR
heights. Winds decreasing after 00z this evening out of the NW but
then shift to the SE by tomorrow morning between 13-15z as a frontal
system approaches from the west.

KMSP...Gustier winds should ease back about 1z this evening.
Stratocu has reached the airfield and is expected to linger as
few to sct through the rest of this afternoon. Winds starting
out as NNW`ly currently then shifting to ESE`ly be tomorrow
morning. There have been hints of light SHRA arriving tomorrow
afternoon however confidence was too low to include this period.
Looking ahead, precip likely arriving to MSP Thursday night
into Friday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind N bcmg SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Dunleavy