551
FXUS64 KFWD 061100
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Friday Afternoon/

While this morning usually would have been a good set up for
radiational fog, a push of drier air moved south through North
Texas over the last few hours. Behind this boundary, dewpoints
dropped, creating greater dewpoint depressions and snuffing out
really any chance at meaningful fog formation in North Texas.
Currently, patchy fog can be seen creeping along river valleys
across Central and East Texas on satellite, and this will
continue so over the next several hours. METAR observations near
these valleys have reported lowered visibilities, but these have
been more isolated in nature across the CWA. If you do come across
denser fog on your commute, make sure to drive safely.

Overall, a dry and quiet forecast is in store for North and
Central Texas to end out the week as upper level ridging builds
in. However, a cold front will advance south through the Central
Plains as its upper level support moves into New England. The
front should make it into Oklahoma today. While subsidence from
the aforementioned ridge should stunt much convective initiation,
a subtle shortwave disturbance rounding the periphery of the ridge
will allow for isolated storms chances to develop to our
northwest this afternoon. Have retained low 20% or less PoPs for
our northwestern counties this afternoon for the potential for a
stray shower/storm. Otherwise, expect a warm afternoon with highs
in the 90s region-wide.

The front will stall before making it south of the Red River on
Friday, and will eventually be ushered north as a warm front.
Another impulse rounding the ridge will allow for the potential
for rain/storms near the front. However, with the boundary
expected to stall and return north all before it reaches our side
of the Red River and a lack of appreciable moisture in the
vicinity, chances for any rainfall in our area continue to
dwindle. Have lowered chances on Friday to below 15% across our
northern row of counties to account for this. We`ll continue to
watch for any deviation or further southern intrusion of the
front, which could influence rain chances.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/
/This Weekend and Next Week/

Mid-level ridging will dominate the pattern this weekend, allowing
for hot and mainly rain-free conditions to prevail. Saturday
should be the warmest day with most of the area climbing to the
mid 90s. Although a stiff southerly breeze will provide some
relief from the heat, dew points in the low 70s will result in
heat index values in the 100-105 range.

A weakness in the ridge, digging shortwave trough, and a weak
cold front moving into the area will open the door for a short-
lived period of more active weather late this weekend into early
next week. Northwest flow aloft should return by Sunday and open
the door for additional overnight/early morning MCSs to move into
the area, mainly Sunday and Monday nights.

The ensemble mean guidance is indicating a resurgence of mid-level
ridging over West Texas in the middle to late parts of next week.
While most guidance keeps weak northwest flow over North Texas,
the dominance of the high to our southwest should nudge the MCS
activity further north with only a 10% chance of thunderstorm
chances continuing beyond Tuesday morning.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Light and variable to completely calm winds continue at all TAF
sites this morning, with patchy fog forming across portions of
Central Texas. A slug of drier air that moved in overnight
continues to move south into Central Texas. Lower dewpoints behind
this boundary has kept any mist/fog from forming at the airports
and have taken out any mention of BR with the 12Z TAF.

Otherwise, winds will settle out of the ESE-SE later this morning,
and eventually out of the S just after midnight on Friday. VFR
will prevail through the rest of the period, making for nice
flying conditions.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  73  95  76  96 /   0   5   0   0   0
Waco                93  69  93  74  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               92  69  90  71  91 /   5   5  10   0   0
Denton              93  69  93  75  94 /   0  10   5   0   0
McKinney            92  70  93  74  94 /   0   5   5   0   0
Dallas              96  73  95  76  96 /   0   5   0   0   0
Terrell             91  69  92  73  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           93  71  93  74  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              93  69  94  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       96  70  95  73  96 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$