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000
FXUS64 KFWD 061042
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
542 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
All showers and storms have diminished across the region early
this morning. The previous forecast remains in good shape, with
hot temperatures and diurnal showers and storms expected both
today and tomorrow. The primary change with this update was to add
a mention of patchy fog for a few hours this morning, mainly
across areas that received rainfall last night. While visibilities
may dip to 1/4 mile across a few spots this morning, this should
be isolated and will not warrant the issuance of a Dense Fog
Advisory at this time. Visibilities should improve quickly
following sunrise.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday/

Widely scattered showers and storms continue near an outflow
boundary across portions of the area late tonight. This activity
has recently perked up a bit but should eventually lose steam as
it moves into an increasingly stable environment. Another area of
showers and thunderstorms is entering eastern portions of the
forecast area as of this writing and is concentrated near a
outflow boundary that continues to propagate northwestward. This
activity will likely survive its journey for a while as it`s
approaching an axis of greater instability, but it`s still
expected to diminish prior to sunrise.

A lull in precipitation is anticipated for much of the day until
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms develop yet again this
afternoon and evening. Have kept PoPs broad-brushed around 20-30%
as storm development will largely be outflow driven, similar to
the past few days. On the other hand, lapse rates will be a bit
steeper than we`ve seen recently, so a few robust storms can`t
entirely be ruled out. Any stronger storms that develop would be
capable of producing marginally severe hail and gusty winds.

Showers and storms will likely persist into Tuesday evening,
eventually dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. While a
mid-level ridge will shift slightly eastward on Wednesday, no
significant changes to our weather pattern are expected. The
primary consequence of the shift in the ridge is that PoPs will be
confined to our far southern and eastern zones on Wednesday.
Otherwise, another hot early summer day is expected across the
region.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 341 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023/
/Wednesday night through Monday/

Mid week through the weekend will start to look more like
summer across North and Central Texas with warmer and more
humid weather and only low afternoon and evening storm chances.

Weak shortwave ridging aloft and the loss of surface heating
Wednesday night will result in a mostly clear and quiet night
with lows generally in the middle and upper 60s, except for some
lower 70s in the urban areas of the Metroplex. Thursday will be a
hot (slightly above seasonal normals) day with plenty of sun and
building heights. Highs will range from the upper 80s to the
middle 90s. There is a slight chance for afternoon showers and
storms on the eastern periphery of the ridge across the eastern
zones where large scale subsidence will be the weakest and
moisture/instability will be the most abundant. Any storms that do
manage to develop will dissipate with the loss of surface
heating.

The upper pattern will become a bit less stagnant as we head into the
weekend with a deepening trough across the West Coast and increasing
southwest flow aloft. Subtle shortwave energy will eject out of
the base of the upper trough and rotate across the Southern Plains
with the first wave expected on Friday/Friday night. The passage of
the shortwave will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to North
Texas and portions of Central Texas. Storms will exit quickly to the
east Saturday morning with the departing wave. However, the next
shortwave will follow on its heels, bringing another chance for
showers and thunderstorms to most of the region Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night with the best chances across North Texas.

Once the second shortwave departs, the upper ridge is progged to
amplify across the Central and Southern Plains, temporarily
decreasing rain chances during the day Sunday. However, another fast
moving shortwave will emerge from West Texas Sunday night,
resulting in yet another quick shot for showers and thunderstorms.

Friday through Sunday will be hot with high temperatures in the
lower and middle 90s, except for some upper 90s across the western
zones. Increasing low level moisture will keep overnight lows
generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Looking ahead to next week, the upper ridge should become more
established across the Lone Star State, keeping most of the
shortwave energy north of the forecast area. Subsidence under the
ridge will bring plenty of June sun, yielding hot temperatures
with highs in the 90s Monday and maybe even a few triple digits by
Tuesday. Slightly breezy south winds will provide some relief
from the heat but will also keep a constant supply of Gulf
moisture in place. Therefore, high humidity will push afternoon
heat index values to the triple digits for many areas.


79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Very patchy fog/mist has developed across portions of Central
Texas early this morning. However, any reductions in visibilities
should improve rather quickly following sunrise.

The main concern of this TAF cycle continues to be the development
of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Gusty, erratic winds and small hail will be possible with
any stronger storms. This activity should gradually diminish
following sunset this evening.

Winds should generally be out of the east today; however, light
wind speeds around 5-7 knots or less will result in variable winds
at times.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  69  91  71  94 /  30  20  10   5  10
Waco                86  67  89  68  92 /  30  10  20   0   5
Paris               88  66  89  68  91 /  30  20  10   5  20
Denton              89  65  90  66  92 /  30  20  10   5  10
McKinney            88  66  89  68  92 /  30  20  10   5  10
Dallas              91  70  92  71  94 /  30  20  10   5  10
Terrell             88  67  89  68  92 /  30  20  10   5  10
Corsicana           89  69  90  70  94 /  30  10  20   5  10
Temple              87  66  90  68  93 /  30   5  20   0   5
Mineral Wells       88  65  89  66  92 /  30  20  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$