Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 230544

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

/Through Thursday/

Water vapor imagery indicates an upper low approaching the
California Coast and an upper trough planted across the
Northeast. Between these 2 features, large scale anticyclonic flow
reveals the presence of a mid/upper ridge covering the Rockies
and Southern Plains. The ridge will bring generally benign weather
in the near-term, and re-start the warming process following the
short break from the heat after Monday`s cold front.

The return of south winds will draw gulf moisture northward
through the area, with dewpoints expected to reach or exceed 70
degrees for most areas at the start of Wednesday. High
temperatures should climb well into the 90s both Wednesday and
Thursday, with heat indices in the triple digits expected each
afternoon. Fortunately, the pressure gradient will be tight enough
to generate persistent southeast breeze with daytime winds
generally in the 10 to 20 MPH range. Otherwise, the increase in
low level moisture will produce late night and morning cloudiness,
with mostly sunny conditions expected during the afternoon hours.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021/
/Thursday through Next Monday/

Our mid-level ridge will re-assert itself for the last portion of
the work-week bringing warmer and rain-free conditions. A bit
atypical for this time of year, a longwave trough will amplify
and send a late June cold front toward North and Central Texas.
There are rain and isolated storm chances associated with FROPA.
While the current forecast advertises temperatures to be 5 to 10
degrees below normal, there remains some potential for this to
change, depending on the magnitude of cold air upstream.

There is strong model consensus that a 594 dam high will settle in
across our region at the start of the long term forecast period.
This should spell rain-free conditions. Low level southerly winds
will increase as lee-troughing starts to take shape to our north
in response to a deepening upper level trough. This will help to
draw a more humid airmass northward through the day on Thursday
and Friday. Daytime high temperatures will climb into the mid to
upper 90s and the addition of increased humidity will result in
heat index values between 100 and 103 degrees. A few spots could
see heat index values between 103 and 105. These 105 degree heat
index readings are expected to be very sparse and thus no heat
headlines are anticipated at this time.

A front will approach the region this weekend with FROPA likely
sometime late Saturday into Sunday. Winds will back more to the
east with surface cyclogenesis taking place across the Trans-
Pecos. If cyclogenesis is weaker than expected and/or winds become
more southwesterly, highs on Saturday will need to be increased as
a southwest wind pattern would favor compressional warming.
There`s a chance that most areas remain largely rain/storm free on
Saturday (except near and north of the US HWY 380 corridor). East
winds will certainly usher in greater low level moisture and so
humidity levels will increase. Fortunately, widespread cloud cover
will keep temperatures in check with highs only advertised to
climb into the low to mid 90s. If cloud cover thins, we could see
greater high temperatures and may be closer to heat advisory
criteria. This will be something to monitor in the long term.

The greatest rain/storm chances are advertised late Saturday and
into Sunday for most of the area as the frontal forcing arrives.
The risk for severe weather will be curtailed by very paltry deep
layer wind shear (less than 20 knots) along with modest
instability...around 1500 J/kg. Sunday onward, there exists some
uncertainty regarding FROPA with some deterministic guidance
pushing it completely through the FA, while others stall it and
draw it northward. For now, the official forecast mirrors NBM
guidance which advertises continued below normal temperatures
Sunday and beyond along with modest rain chances (30-40%).



/06Z TAFs/

Return flow has commenced tonight and is already bringing low
level moisture northward through the region. In fact, a stratus
deck can be seen on low cloud/fog imagery moving north through the
area, and appears to have developed just north of a subtle warm
front. MVFR ceilings resulting from this cloud deck may be
intermittent over the next few hours, but should become more
widespread by daybreak as low level moisture continues to
increase. Cigs should last through much of Wednesday morning
before scattering by midday. South to southeast surface winds of
5 to 10 kt will likewise increase to around 15 kt by midday
Wednesday due to boundary layer mixing.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  95  79  97  78 /   0   5   0   0   0
Waco                74  94  76  96  76 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               66  89  76  94  77 /   0   5   0   0   0
Denton              71  94  76  96  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            70  92  77  96  77 /   0   0   5   0   0
Dallas              75  95  80  98  79 /   0   5   0   0   0
Terrell             72  92  76  95  76 /   0   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           74  93  77  95  77 /   5   5   0   0   0
Temple              73  93  75  96  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       70  94  76  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0



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