Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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737
FXUS64 KFWD 180839
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
339 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019


.DISCUSSION...

The longwave trough will be moving eastward through the day today,
helping to dry North and Central out after a stormy night. The
elevated low pressure system will lag slightly behind the surface
low, and for that reason, there may be a few lingering showers
this morning. With limited instability to work with, showers and a
few isolated storms will be possible.

The northerly winds, combined with some cloud cover associated
with the wrap-around moisture will keep highs in the mid 60s in
the northeast to mid 70s in the southwest. Overnight lows will be
in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees.

A benign weather pattern will take hold as a ridge of high
pressure builds across the region keeping all storm systems well
north of North and Central Texas. Temperatures by Saturday will
range from the mid 70s to mid 80s with clear skies and southerly
winds between 10-15 mph. By sunrise Sunday, temperatures are
expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s areawide. Sunday`s
high temperatures will be fairly similar to that of Saturday as upper
70s to mid 80s are expected.

The next storm system will be digging southward across the
Rockies on Monday, and the low-level winds will respond
appropriately. Southerly winds will help increase the moisture
content Monday and Tuesday mainly east of I-35 leading to a
potential for showers and storms. With a slow moving trough just
north of the region and a trailing cold front moving across the
region by mid-week, precipitation chances will increase for all of
North and Central Texas through the first half of next week. The
severe weather potential continues to appear low, but this will
continue to be assessed through this weekend.


Hernandez

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 108 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/
/06Z TAFs/

Convection continues to affect all North and Central Texas
terminals. Although the main line of convection has moved east,
stratiform rain with occasional lighting strikes will continue.
There is a mixture of IFR-MVFR-VFR scattered across the
metroplex, making it difficult to forecast the next 2-3 hours. As
the region becomes farther detached from main line, precipitation
will gradually come to an end and a more stable atmosphere will
lead to improving conditions.

Some wrap around moisture will make its way southeastward Thursday
morning, leading to an increase in low-level moisture. At this
time, confidence in MVFR CIGs remains low and therefore will not
mention it explicitly in the TAF. This will continue to be
monitored through the morning, and if more confidence is attained,
a short period of MVFR may be included for North Texas sites.

Northerly winds will persist through the day on Thursday, at
times, becoming quite breezy. The breezy winds will develop in the
afternoon as daytime mixing transfers those higher wind speeds
aloft toward the surface. After sunset, those winds are expected
to diminish, with VFR conditions remaining.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  52  72  51  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
Waco                70  51  73  50  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               67  48  68  45  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
Denton              70  49  71  48  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
McKinney            68  50  70  48  76 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dallas              71  52  72  51  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
Terrell             70  49  72  47  77 /  20   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           69  50  71  48  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
Temple              72  51  74  50  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       70  47  73  48  82 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

08



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