Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 231958
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
258 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

More of the same as last few previous night with regard to the
synoptic pattern and trends. A broad weakness from Eastern North
and Central Texas to the Lower Mississippi valley continues to
remain stagnant. This area of disturbed weather remains trapped
in weak steering flow on the northeast periphery of a subtropical
ridge anchored over Mexico and Deep South Texas. Combined with
richer column moisture across East Texas and the Ark-La-Tex and we
find isolated convection ongoing. One other feature of note was
actually an impressive seabreeze boundary and numerous showers and
storms across Southeast Texas into far Southwest Louisiana. Some
of this activity may seep into our far southeast counties late
this afternoon, but coverage should continue to lessen by early
this evening as strong daytime heating is lost.

Similar to recent days, I will linger 20-30 percent convective
chances mainly east of I-35/35E through sunset, then dry out the
forecast for the overnight hours. Low level flow through the
boundary layer continues to be weak, so any stratus should be
spotty at best and most likely across Central Texas from daybreak
through mid-morning Thursday. With the stagnant humid airmass in
place and relatively light south-southeast winds 10 mph or less,
look for low temperatures to have little variation with 60s
expected across rural areas and lower 70s across urban areas.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Thursday through the middle of next week/

A weak upper trough situated over Eastern Texas and Louisiana
will continue to provide scattered diurnal convection through
Friday for areas generally along and east of the Interstate 35/35W
corridor. Frequent lightning and brief heavy rain can be expected
in the stronger storms, but activity should remain sub-severe.
The rest of the region will remain hot and dry through Friday due
to the presence of an upper level ridge.

The pattern will begin to amplify Friday and Saturday as a
tropical system in the Gulf strengthens and the ridge over Texas
sharpens. This will result in a period of north flow aloft across
the region, which could leave North and Central Texas susceptible
to southward moving thunderstorm complexes which may form in the
Southern Plains. Hi-res/convective-allowing models are already
hinting at one such complex dropping south of the Red River Friday
night. POPs may need to be increased for areas along the Red
River late Friday based on these trends, and we will need to
monitor this pattern for the rest of the weekend and into early
next week.

Otherwise, temperatures will be on the increase as North and
Central Texas becomes located in the subsident region of the
developing tropical system, which will be moving northward
towards the Gulf Coast. Max temperatures will push the mid and
upper 90s this weekend through the middle part of next week, with
triple digits a good possibility across the western-most counties.
The only relief would be in the form of any potential southward
moving MCSs, which we will monitor this weekend through early next
week. Beyond Tuesday or Wednesday, a hot Summer-like pattern
really takes hold as the ridge expands and dominates the Central
and Southern Plains.

30

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018/
Very few challenges today outside of watching pulse-like,
isolated-scattered SHRA/TS across mainly areas E of I-35/35E this
afternoon. Will continue with VCSH for only DFW/DAL/GKY within the
DFW Metro, as mid level water vapor imagery appears to have a more
stable and drier environment further west. Despite some isolated
seabreeze convection moving up to T35 and LHB, feel convective chances
are too limited at Waco Regional this afternoon and will monitor
trends for VCSH or VCTS later this afternoon.

Otherwise, surface-boundary layer flow will remain relatively weak
S-SE low level flow of 10 knots or less, so any MVFR cigs will
likely be patchy at best and mostly across Central TX. As such,
will have a TEMPO MVFR for Waco after 12z Thursday...VFR
elsewhere.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  91  71  93  73 /  10  10   5  10   5
Waco                69  90  69  93  71 /  10  10   0  10   0
Paris               69  88  68  90  70 /  30  30  10  30  10
Denton              69  90  69  93  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
McKinney            69  89  69  92  71 /  20  20   5  10  10
Dallas              72  92  73  94  74 /  10  10   5  10   5
Terrell             69  90  69  92  71 /  20  20   5  20  10
Corsicana           70  88  70  91  71 /  20  20   5  20  10
Temple              68  90  69  92  71 /  10   5   0  10   5
Mineral Wells       67  91  67  94  69 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/05


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