Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 042355
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
655 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Evening/

This evening and tonight will remain rain-free and mild, but an
approaching shortwave from the west will result in increasing rain
chances mainly along and north of the I-20 corridor and east of
I-35 corridor by early Wednesday morning. The thunderstorm
complex should be on a weakening trend by the time it reaches the
Red River, despite some instability across the region. Overall, severe
weather is not expected, but recent rainfall and high moisture
content may cause minor flooding issues across the northeastern
counties. Similar to previous nocturnal complexes, gusty winds
cannot be ruled out along or ahead with outflow boundaries. High
res guidance keeps the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms
north and east of the Metroplex, but there are some indications of
new development along an outflow boundary along the I-20
corridor Wednesday morning.

The complex will continue to weaken and move southeast into East
Texas through the early afternoon hours. The combination of a
lingering outflow boundary and daytime heating may result in
additional shower and thunderstorm development Wednesday
afternoon, but coverage is expected to be more isolated to scattered.
Otherwise, high temperatures will range from the mid to upper 80s
near the Red River due to increased cloud cover to mid to upper
90s across Central Texas. Since the activity is expected to be
diurnally driven, any development should diminish after sunset and
result in a rain-free evening across the region.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 256 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020/
/Wednesday Night Through Early Next Week/

We`ll remain in a mid level, northwest flow regime moving into
Thursday, as the ridge over New Mexico begins migrating into West
Texas. A more subtle shortwave than tonight`s disturbance will
round the ridge and move southward out of Central and Eastern
Oklahoma and over North Texas early Thursday morning. Though
convection shouldn`t be as widespread or intense as Wednesday
morning`s activity, there will be scattered showers and storms
migrating out of Oklahoma and across our Red River and East Texas
counties through Thursday morning. The ridge to our west will
begin expanding east Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. The
associated large-scale subsidence associated with this feature
will basically put an end to our rain chances for the foreseeable
future.

All ensembles, which include the European, GFS, and Canadian
models show mid level height anomalies increasing Friday into
this weekend as the deepening longwave trough over the Western
CONUS enhances the ridge over the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, lee
side surface pressure falls associated with shortwave disturbances
riding over the ridge across the Central and Southern High Plains
will enhance occasionally gusty south winds across North and
Central Texas. Southeast surface winds and a weakness along the
southeast periphery of the ridge over the Upper Texas Coast and
Southeast Texas may enhance the diurnal seabreeze each afternoon
moving up toward our far southeast counties. However, with
uncertainty on the expanse of the mid level ridge over that area
and subsidence, I will only ride with silent 10 PoPs each
afternoon this weekend into early next week for Milam, Roberston,
Leon and southern Anderson counties for now until details become
clearer.

I did go with warmer than national blended guidance with the
European model on high temperatures. We should see several days of
late day temperatures approaching, or exceeding the century mark
across the area. In essence, the term "it feels like a hot blow
dryer outside" will come to fruition for several days, but nothing
out of the ordinary for North-Central Texans in the month of
August. In addition to the windy and hot conditions, higher
humidity from the Gulf of Mexico will also make it`s return to
primarily our East Texas Counties. Luckily, deep mixing should
help the remainder of the area to help afternoon dew point
temperatures fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s. This will likely
result in afternoon heat index values between 100-105 degrees
each day from Friday into early next week for much of the area.

Lastly, ERC values will continue to rise along and west of
Highway 281 in our western counties due to lack of recent
rainfall. Gusty south winds and marginally low humidities between
25%-35% may combine with dry grasses for elevated fire weather
conditions across our far western counties each afternoon.

05/

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the forecast period across the region,
but precip chances may result in aviation concerns through
tomorrow afternoon. A complex of showers and thunderstorms will
approach from the northwest by daybreak on Wednesday, impacting
the northern cornerposts through mid morning and eastern
cornerposts through early afternoon. The greater coverage will
exist north and east of the Metroplex terminals, but some high res
guidance has indicated the potential for new development just
after daybreak as the edge of the complex skirts the eastern
Metroplex terminals. We`ll keep the VCTS/VCSH mention at this time
due to uncertainty and include a TEMPO in subsequent TAF issuances
if needed.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop once again
Wednesday afternoon, but the coverage is expected to be more
isolated to scattered. We`ll keep any precip mention out of the
current TAF at this time. Otherwise, southeasterly winds near or
below 10 knots will prevail.

Garcia

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  92  78  99  79 /  20  50  10   5   0
Waco                75  98  77 100  77 /   5  20   5   0   0
Paris               68  85  71  93  74 /  30  70  40  20   5
Denton              72  89  77  98  77 /  20  50  10   5   0
McKinney            71  89  75  97  77 /  30  60  20  10   0
Dallas              76  92  78  99  79 /  20  50  10   5   0
Terrell             72  92  74  98  76 /  20  60  20  10   0
Corsicana           74  94  76  98  76 /   5  30  10   5   0
Temple              75  99  75 100  75 /  10  20   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  96  74  99  75 /  10  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

22/79


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