322
FXUS64 KFWD 230110
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
710 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warmup is expected through the end of the week, with mainly
  tranquil weather expected.

- Rain and storm chances return to the forecast Saturday night and
  continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

A weak cold front will continue making gradual progress through
the region overnight. This will impart a wind shift, but the
meager temperature/moisture gradient will do little more than
arrest our warming trend. With milder temperatures to start the
night, Thursday morning`s lows will actually be a bit warmer than
Wednesday morning`s. However, this still means overnight
temperatures several degrees below normal and yet another
widespread freeze.

Unlike Wednesday morning, Thursday morning`s wind speeds won`t be
particularly strong, but even a light breeze will drop wind chill
values into the teens. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will be
similar to the preceding day, climbing into the 40s and 50s. The
tail-end of a polar trough that extends southwestward from Quebec
will approach on Thursday, but it will struggle to produce any
clouds as it lifts extraordinarily dry mid-level air.

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 152 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/
/Thursday Night and Beyond/

Diminishing winds and clear skies will lead to one more bitterly
cold night Thursday night with temperatures in the 20s across most
of North and Central Texas. Breezy southwest winds will return
Friday as rapid pressure falls occur in the lee of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains over far SE Colorado/NE New Mexico. The source
region of these winds will start rather dry and greater moisture
return will be delayed until late Friday night and Saturday when
low-level flow shifts more south-southeasterly. Therefore,
afternoon RH will plummet into the 15-20% range Friday afternoon
across much of western North and Central Texas as temperatures
rise into the mid to upper 50s. Along with breezy south winds
gusting to 20 mph at times, this environment will support at least
an elevated fire weather threat west of I-35 Friday afternoon and
evening.

A rapid period of moisture return and increased cloudiness will
begin by early Saturday morning with surface dewpoints in the mid
40s to low 50s expected to sprawl across much of the region by
Saturday evening (roughly 30 degrees greater than just 24 hours
before). A shallow cold front advancing southward will interact
with this increasingly moist environment to produce scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms late Saturday evening into Sunday.
The greatest rain chances will reside generally along/east of
I-35 in the deeper moisture. A cool boundary layer will limit the
threat for any severe weather, but steepening mid-level lapse
rates may provide enough MUCAPE for a few stronger cores capable
of producing small hail, primarily Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

The front will likely stall south of our forecast area keeping any
low rain chances Monday into Tuesday primarily across our Central
Texas and Brazos Valley counties. Longer-range ensemble and
deterministic guidance continue to highlight the potential for a
more potent storm system to enter the Plains by the middle of next
week. This could bring a more widespread round of rainfall, some
heavy, to much of the region. We will continue to monitor this
potential in the coming days.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

No concerns. VFR with north flow.

A weak frontal boundary has already introduced north winds into
D10, and north flow will prevail into Thursday night. Winds will
veer this evening, becoming northwesterly by the 03Z amendment
deadline. A slight diurnal increase in wind speeds will occur on
Thursday, with occasional afternoon gusts topping 20kts. A few mid
and/or high clouds will be possible, but the boundary layer will
remain too dry to support any low clouds.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    28  50  25  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                28  52  26  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               24  48  23  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              23  49  19  54  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            25  48  22  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              29  50  27  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             25  50  23  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           28  53  26  55  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              26  53  23  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       25  50  22  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$