660
FXUS64 KFWD 121933
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
233 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/
Rain and thunderstorms developed as expected this morning with
some overachievers across Central Texas where instability and deep
layer shear was the strongest. 2 inch hail was reported across
portions of Bell County earlier with smaller hail reports in other
counties. Along with the hail we have had some heavy rainfall
with 2 to 3 inch amounts between the Colorado River and the Brazos
river across Central Texas.

We expect periods of rain and thunderstorms to continue through
the afternoon due to passing shortwave energy and a lifting warm
front. Precipitation will taper off from southwest to northeast
through the afternoon and into the evening once the center of the
shortwave circulation moves into the Central Plains and the warm
front moves northeast towards the Red River. Most of the CAMS
agree that precipitation will temporarily end this evening/overnight
for much of the CWA, but rain and storm chances will return on
Monday with the arrival of a cold front. Some of these storms will
become strong to severe with the best chances across our Central
Texas counties where the air will be most unstable. The main
threats will be from large hail and damaging winds. The front will
exit the region Monday evening, bringing an end to the
precipitation until the middle of the week, as discussed in the
long term discussion below.

Temperatures this afternoon will be rather cool due to the rain
and extensive cloud cover with most spots not getting out of the
70s. Clouds and patchy fog are expected tonight behind the rain
which will keep temperatures in the 60s. Morning clouds on Monday
will decrease from west to east through the day as drier and
subsident air filters in behind the cold front. Afternoon sun will
offset very weak cold air advection, allowing temperatures to
warm into the 80s. Drier air and a clear sky Monday night will
result in cooler temperatures with upper 50s across the west and
northwest and lower to middle 60s elsewhere.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday through Sunday/

Ridging aloft will fill in behind the departing shortwave on
Tuesday, resulting in plenty of daytime sun and afternoon highs in
the 80s. Subsidence under the ridge will remain through Wednesday
morning but the ridge axis will shift quickly eastward Wednesday
afternoon ahead of another developing shortwave across the Desert
Southwest. Thunderstorms will form along the dryline across West
Texas Wednesday afternoon but these storms will not reach the CWA
until Wednesday night when the shortwave deepens and moves into
the Four Corners region. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely
through Thursday with the passage of the trough axis followed by
another cold front. It is difficult to say what the extent of
severe weather will be Thursday but given the pattern, some severe
storms could certainly be possible. Precipitation will end from
west to east Thursday night once drier air moves in behind the
front. The drier air will be very temporary and moisture will
return Saturday in response to a weak shortwave following on the
heels of the late week system. Although we are not seeing overly
strong signals in the long range models for thunderstorms on
Saturday and Sunday, there is enough moisture and lift indicated
to keep slight chances mentioned.

Temperatures Tuesday through the weekend will be near or above
seasonal normals overall with highs in the 80s and lows in the
60s. The only exception will be on Thursday when clouds and rain
will keep highs in the 70s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Rain and thunderstorms will move across all TAF sites through the
afternoon with the best window of time for storms between
issuance time and about 23Z. Some showers and storms will linger
in the vicinity until about 01Z. MVFR to IFR ceilings and
visibility will accompany the storms. There will be a brief
improvement to ceiling heights after the rain moves to the
northeast but ceilings will fall again late this evening and
overnight along with patchy fog. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning with the arrival of
a cold front but all precipitation will shift southeast of D10
airspace by afternoon.

The prevailing wind through tonight will remain southeast between
6 and 12 knots except for gusty and erratic winds in and near any
thunderstorms. A west to northwest wind will follow the passage
of the cold front Monday but wind speeds should not be strong
enough to cause any crosswind issues.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  85  63  85  65 /  30  30   5   0   0
Waco                68  83  62  85  63 /  20  20   5   0   0
Paris               63  81  60  81  58 /  50  40  10   0   0
Denton              63  83  60  84  61 /  40  20   5   0   0
McKinney            65  82  61  83  61 /  50  30   5   0   0
Dallas              66  86  64  86  64 /  40  30   5   0   0
Terrell             65  82  61  83  61 /  50  30   5   0   0
Corsicana           67  84  64  85  64 /  50  30   5   0   0
Temple              68  85  62  86  64 /  20  30   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       65  85  59  86  62 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for TXZ119>122-130>135-
141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$