Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 271128
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
528 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Dense fog has developed as expected, but continues to spread
westward, beyond the current advisory area. Since low spots and
localized areas will still be very likely to see dense fog through
sunrise, we will modify the Dense Fog Advisory to include the
entire forecast area. We still anticipate slow visibility
improvements through the morning due to light wind and sluggish
boundary layer mixing. Therefore, we will keep the Dense Fog
Advisory in effect through 10 AM.

Other than adding dense fog to the western zones, only some minor
hourly grid adjustments are necessary at this time.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday night/

Fog formation is rapidly underway late this evening as evident by
currently visibility trends. We expect widespread dense fog to
develop overnight across much of North and Central Texas,
therefore, a Dense Fog advisory will be issued with this update
for locations generally east of a line from Jacksboro to Lampasas.
It still appears the western zones could see some fog, but higher
dewpoint depressions in most locations should keep the fog more
patchy in nature. We will continue to monitor visibility trends
through the night and adjust the Dense Fog Advisory as necessary.
The fog should slowly dissipate during the morning hours Monday
with a mix of clouds and sun Monday afternoon.

Temperatures Monday will be mild (60s to lower 70s) due to
increasing low level warm air advection ahead of a developing low
pressure system in the west. Large scale lift associated with
approaching shortwave will not arrive until Monday night so will
keep the best PoPs overnight Monday/early Tuesday morning.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 236 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2020/
/Through the Weekend/

By Tuesday morning, the ingredients needed to develop showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be in place. An upper level trough
will be just northwest of the region, and strong height falls will
have overspread across North and Central Texas. The surface low
associated with the trough will track eastward through the day,
mainly along the Red River. WAA ahead of a strong cold front will
provide sufficient low-level moisture and weak instability to
produce showers and isolated thunderstorms. Based on current
model consensus of the track of the surface low, the highest PoPs
will be across the eastern half of the region. We will begin to
see rain chances decrease across our western zones Tuesday
afternoon as the cold front slides across the region. Strong CAA
will result in our northwestern zones realizing their high
temperature (mid 50s) by mid-day. As the surface low translates
eastward and the cold front sweeps across North and Central Texas
into Tuesday night, mild temperatures and rain chances will be
replaced by colder temperatures and dry conditions. Temperatures
on Tuesday night will range from near freezing across the
northwest to low 40s across the southeast.

While partly to mostly cloudy skies will be in place Wednesday
morning, skies will clear and result in mostly to partly sunny
skies by the afternoon hours. Highs in the 50s, slightly below-
normal for late January, are expected across the region on
Wednesday. Our next upper level system will be deepening across
the Pacific Southwest and track eastward through Thursday,
providing an opportunity for rain chances. There are still
discrepancies with model guidance on the evolution of this
system. The best chances remain across Central Texas for the end
of the work week. A warming trend into the upper 60s and low 70s
with dry conditions is expected as we head into the weekend.

Garcia

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Dense fog will remain the primary aviation weather concern
through the morning hours. All TAF sites will experience temporary
visibility restrictions of 1/4 mile or less through mid morning.
A gradual improvement will take place after 15Z, but it will
likely take the entire morning before visibility improves above 5
miles. VFR conditions will return around midday with increasing
high clouds ahead of an approaching shortwave. MVFR ceilings will
return late in the evening as low level moisture feeds into a
surface low over West Texas. Some showers will accompany the
shortwave in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. There may be enough
instability for a few thunderstorms as well, but coverage will be
too limited to include in this TAF package.

A light wind this morning will become southerly and gradually
increase through the afternoon/evening.

79


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  52  59  38  54 /   0  50  50  20   0
Waco                69  52  65  38  56 /   0  60  40  20   0
Paris               63  47  53  39  51 /   0  60  80  60   5
Denton              66  51  56  36  53 /   0  50  50  20   0
McKinney            65  50  57  37  52 /   0  50  60  30   5
Dallas              66  52  59  39  54 /   0  50  50  30   0
Terrell             66  50  59  39  54 /   0  60  60  40   5
Corsicana           66  52  62  41  54 /   0  60  60  30   0
Temple              69  52  65  39  57 /   0  70  40  10   0
Mineral Wells       68  49  58  34  54 /   0  50  30  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$

79/22


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