Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 261002 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
502 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

Outside of some minor wind, cold frontal passage timing and a
tweak on today`s high temperatures, the rest of the forecast
discussed in detail below remains intact.


Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday/

Quite a challenging short term forecast, as we continue to
monitor a late season cold front currently draped from near
Lubbock and Childress, TX, northeast toward Enid OK/Wichita KS.
Meanwhile aloft, a broad upper high remained draped over the
Southern Plains and TX.

Models continue to struggle on exact timing of this cold front
from various CAMs and other high-resolution models. As much as it
would be easy just to roll with the progress NBM wind fields, it`s
just not in my DNA to do so and will follow a HRRR/NAM blend,
with a slight lean toward the former per latest position. This
will generally be 1-3 hours slower than the NBM, which is a blend
of several more progressive solutions. As I look at the surface-
925mb thermal advection forecasts this morning, it still appears
the better surge of the front and it`s low level cool advection
will continue to occur from our western Big Country areas westward
across the higher terrain of western parts of the state.

Areas along and south of highway 380 will still have the
potential to see triple-digit temperatures, just not as extreme as
previous days, thus with deep mixing today and low RH values, I
plan no additional Heat Advisory for today. There will be a pre-
frontal wind shift initially this morning as winds become light
west or northwest less than 10 mph, but don`t fool this as the
front as no low level thermal advection will be associated with
this feature with winds eventually veering northerly near 10 mph
by midday/early afternoon across primarily North TX, as frontal
passage delays until early evening for most of Central TX. The
only areas that will see true low level cold advection will likely
be the northwest counties into the Red River Valley, where highs
should be stunted by the time they reach the middle 90s. I have
issued another strongly worded fire danger statement for those
areas generally along the Highway 180 corridor west of I-35 (which
includes the ever-expanding Dempsey Fire near Graford), to
western Central TX along and west of I-35/35W.

The front will continue to progress into Central TX this evening,
as low level cold advection, albeit shallow through the lower
2000 feet or so continues advancing southward. The arriving
thermal advection and pressure rises will drive NNE-NE winds 10 to
15 mph with occasional gusts in excess of 20 mph tonight, before
the front loses steam on Monday across South-Central TX. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms will occur this evening with the
cold front, though upper support will lacking, as will any cap to
inhibit convective develop. With the Dempsey Fire near Graford
only 12% contained, I did add some smokey haze into the forecast
for this afternoon and evening for primarily the US-281 corridor
in Central TX, as shifting winds drive the smoke plume south-

As noted in my discussion 24 hours ago, the hot temperatures and
steep low level lapse rates will drive very gusty outflow, or
downburst winds. If there`s any assist from dry pockets within the
mid levels, then certainly a severe downburst or two can`t be
ruled out during the evening hours. Otherwise, with the thermal
advection, scattered rain chances, and additional cloud cover,
Monday looks to be the beginning of relatively cooler temperatures
ranging between 85-90 degrees north of I-20, the lower-mid 90s
across Central TX. This will almost seem cool compared to the past
3 days. Scattered showers and storms will continue across Central
TX, with isolated storms as far north as the I-20/30 corridors.
Not everybody will see significant rainfall, but think we can all
agree the cooler temperatures are quite welcomed!



.LONG TERM... /Issued 338 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/
/Monday Night Onward/

Precipitation will have ended across most of North Texas Monday
evening, but scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may
linger across Central Texas through midnight. A cooler night is
expected with lows ranging from the upper 60s along the Red River
to low 70s elsewhere. Although the front will be located further
south across the Texas Hill Country on Tuesday, a few showers and
thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon hours across
Central Texas on Tuesday. Any activity would dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating with near normal temperatures in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

A gradual warm up begins on Wednesday, as low level southerly to
southeasterly flow returns and mid level ridging slowly builds.
Meanwhile, an area of weak low pressure is expected to develop off
the Texas Coast and result in daily low rain/storm chances across
our far southeastern counties each afternoon late week, which is
where the higher moisture content will be. PoPs remain capped at
20% at this time, but adjustments are likely as this feature is
captured by future high-res guidance better. Otherwise, high
temperatures through the end of the week should climb into the
upper 90s into next weekend.



/12z TAFs/
No significant changes were made to pre-frontal trough and
eventual FROPA timing were made. VCTS by/after 00z Monday still
looks good, though I could see where that may need to be sped up
1-2 hrs if FROPA arrives sooner than currently anticipated.


Previous Discussion:
/06z TAFs/

Challenges: Surface wind shifts w/FROPA after 15z and potential
for VCTS by/after 00z Monday.

S winds less than 10 knots will shift SW around 12z, before
shifting W by 15z. Afterward, is a bit more challenging and
problematic, as models aren`t not agreeing on FROPA timing.

I leaned toward a RAP/HRRR timing with FROPA. We`ll likely see N
flow less than 10 kts by 18z, becoming NNE-NE 10 to 15 kts, with a
few gusts to 20 kts by 21z and beyond when shallow thermal
differences begin to aide in driving wind speeds. It`ll be a
tricky day at DFW/DAL/AFW on adjusting their flows, but this is
generally my best guess at this time.

It will be VFR throughout thanks to hot summertime temperatures
around the century mark and high cloud bases, though certainly
tonight I couldn`t rule out some spotty MVFR cigs with any TS with
+RA after 00z Monday. We`ll continue to refine things as trends
become more clear throughout the day into tonight.



Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  75  91  72  93 /  20  30  20  10   5
Waco               103  76  93  74  93 /  10  30  40  20  20
Paris               99  71  86  66  88 /  20  20  20   0   5
Denton              98  71  88  69  91 /  20  30  20   5   5
McKinney            99  72  88  67  90 /  20  30  20   5   5
Dallas             102  75  90  73  92 /  20  30  20   5   5
Terrell            103  74  91  70  93 /  20  30  30   5   5
Corsicana          103  75  91  72  93 /  20  30  30  10  10
Temple             103  75  92  71  92 /  10  30  50  30  20
Mineral Wells      101  70  89  69  93 /  20  30  20  10  10



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