Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 190552
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1252 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update
/Through Mid Week/

Earlier discussion below on track through tonight regarding some
frost across rural areas primarily North through Southeast of the
DFW Metroplex. The warm up ensues with the return of southerly
breezes by this afternoon into tonight.

Wednesday:
This morning`s broad surface ridge will continuing exiting to the
southeast toward Central Gulf Coast on Wednesday, while a vigorous
mid level shortwave moves out of the Desert Southwest and toward
the the Southern High Plains late Wednesday afternoon. Mid level
height falls in advance of this system will result in deepening
surface cyclogenesis across E NM and the OK/TX Panhandles by late
afternoon. A surface dryline will extend southward just east of
the TX/NM common border. Well east of these features across North-
Central TX, increasing southerly low level flow from the GoM will
help draw dew point temperatures in the lower-mid 50s up across
much of the forecast area by early Wednesday evening.

Strong, large-scale ascent will remain well west of the forecast
area and near the W TX dryline. This will help to fire a few discrete
supercells storms across the TX Panhandle and Caprock region
extending into far western OK by evening. The fast southwest flow
aloft further east will only help to increase the warm and
statically stable air over our area with a stout elevated mixed
layer (Cap) aloft. Outside of a sprinkle or two from the
increasing low level warm advection, look for breezy and
seasonally warm high temperatures during the afternoon hour under
partly to mostly cloudy skies.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday Night/

Post-frontal weather conditions will take us through the
overnight hours into Tuesday. Wind speeds have gradually decreased
through the afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight.
Lows tonight will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s, with a few
locations out east and along the Red River Valley reaching the
freezing mark. Patchy frost will be possible across portions of
North and Central Texas, so be sure to protect any plants that you
may have outside! Southerly flow will return to the region as we
move into the early morning hours tomorrow, with gusts out of the
southwest around 15-20 mph. Highs will reach into the mid to upper
60s, with a few locations out west hitting the 70 degree mark.
Temperatures through Tuesday night will fall to around seasonal
norms, ranging in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 311 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

An upper low over the Desert Southwest will bring our next chance
of rain as it finally ejects east across the Rockies Tuesday
night, into the Texas Panhandle on Wednesday, and through the
rest of Texas and Southern Plains Wednesday night and Thursday.
Scattered rain showers will develop Wednesday night as the low
approaches the Big Country, with isolated thunderstorms possible
by Thursday as the low center moves east along the Red River. The
best rain chances will likely end up being along and east of I-35
where Gulf moisture will be most plentiful. That being said,
overall moisture will still be limited, with probabilities of
receiving half an inch or more of rain remaining below 30 percent.
Thunderstorms will also likely remain isolated due to limited
instability, but a few storms will be capable of small hail
wherever any pockets of elevated instability exist.

Dry and seasonable weather will return Friday and Saturday as the
upper low and all associated precipitation exit to our east. Focus
will then shift to the West Coast on Sunday where the next upper
trough will be deepening. The trough will be progressive and
dynamic, likely bringing a more widespread round of showers and
storms (compared to the midweek system) as it makes its approach
from the west Sunday night or next Monday. Severe weather
potential remains uncertain at this time, but the time of year and
the current model solutions indicate that there will be at least
a low end chance. We will know more as better resolution guidance
arrives later this week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR with a few passing clouds around FL250 with no impacts to
commercial aviation within the D10 airspace. Look for DFW to be in
a south flow configuration by later this morning as light
southerly winds around 5 kts, increase to between 10-12 kts later
today and continue through tonight.

A broad surface high from over North-Central Texas into the Lower
Mississippi valley will slowly move southeast toward the Central
Gulf Coast by 12z Wednesday. SW flow aloft will only help to
strengthen a cap over the area with no weather expected through
the next 24-30 hours.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  72  57  69  54 /   0   5  50  60  20
Waco                46  68  57  73  54 /   0  10  30  40  20
Paris               44  69  52  61  51 /   0  10  50  60  20
Denton              46  71  54  68  49 /   0   5  50  60  20
McKinney            47  70  54  66  52 /   0   5  50  60  20
Dallas              51  70  57  69  54 /   0   5  50  60  20
Terrell             46  68  54  68  54 /   0   5  50  60  30
Corsicana           49  69  57  71  56 /   0   5  40  50  30
Temple              47  67  56  74  53 /   0  10  30  40  10
Mineral Wells       46  73  54  73  50 /   0   5  40  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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