Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
018 FXUS64 KFWD 160613 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 113 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - More robust rain chances (30-60%) return to the region daily beginning Sunday and into the middle of next week. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during this time frame. - Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend and into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Elevated light rain showers and virga associated with a weak shortwave will continue to work their way east through North and Central Texas over the next few hours, eventually dissipating while moving off to the east by daybreak. The only potential impacts would be an uptick in wind gust velocities associated with the decaying convection, otherwise just a few light sprinkles can be expected. The next feature to keep an eye on is an upper trough now entering the Pacific Northwest, which will help to maintain a lee-side surface trough and keep the narrow pressure gradient in place across Texas and the Plains. Another warm an breezy day will be the result, with temperatures likely being a few degrees above Friday`s numbers due to thinner cloud cover. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 80s in the northeast to the lower 90s across the west. There will likely be a dryline storm or two to watch off to our west this evening, though a strong cap and weaker instability will shut down any convection before affecting our western counties. Breezy conditions tonight and an influx of low clouds will keep overnight/Sunday morning lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 An upper trough will dig south through the Rockies on Sunday before propagating slowly east across the CONUS during the early to middle part of next week. A lead shortwave will eject northeast from Northwest Texas through the Southern Plains Sunday evening, generating scattered thunderstorms north of the Red River and isolated storms across North and Central Texas. Coverage may be low, but any storm able to overcome the persistent cap will tap into an unstable and modestly sheared environment and be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. Activity will die off pretty fast after sunset as the disturbance continues northeast and instability wanes. A similar set-up will occur on Monday as another shortwave lifts northeast through the Plains, though it will be a bit stronger and have a more southerly trajectory compared to the Sunday system. The result will be a farther south extension of scattered convection and generally higher POPs area-wide. Not all will be affected, but the odds are a little better than Sunday. Widespread severe weather is not likely, but shear and instability will sufficiently support a few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds. The best rain and storm chances should be on Tuesday when the main trough axis finally advances eastward through the Plains. Isolated dryline storms will be possible, but most of the convection will become focused along an attendant cold front as it pushes south through the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. The upper trough will become positively tilted, with the southern flank of its axis extending southwest into Northwest Texas on Wednesday. This may lead to additional elevated storms, mainly across Central Texas, in the post frontal airmass on Wednesday. If any severe weather occurs, it will likely be on Tuesday associated with the storms lined up along the front, with damaging winds the primary hazard. Widespread severe weather once again seems unlikely given the positive tilt nature of the upper trough. The pattern will remain unsettled through the end of the week, with the next shortwave being embedded in the subtropical jet and moving slowly northeast through the region Thursday and Friday. Thursday`s convection may be focused south of the forecast area along the front, which will be stationary near the Gulf Coast. The front will retreat north, however, dragging showers and storms back to the north through the area on Friday. Mid range guidance indicates a split flow regime will develop by next weekend, which will likely keep occasional chances of showers and storms going through and beyond the extended forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Low clouds will spread north overnight into Saturday morning, ushered in by the strong south flow at 925mb. Cigs should prevail at KACT but may be in the process of scattering as they reach the Metroplex, so will just indicate a TEMPO for MVFR at the DFW area airports 11-15Z. Gusty south winds can otherwise be expected for the entire TAF cycle. Light precip/virga will linger for several more hours as a weak disturbance slowly moves east over the area, but TS are unlikely at any of the TAF sites. Another, more prevalent batch of MVFR stratocumulus will spread north Saturday night, likely prevailing at all locations for a few hours Sunday morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 73 90 75 / 0 10 20 20 Waco 88 73 88 75 / 0 10 20 20 Paris 87 71 87 73 / 0 10 20 20 Denton 89 74 89 76 / 0 10 20 20 McKinney 90 72 89 75 / 0 10 20 20 Dallas 91 74 91 76 / 0 0 20 20 Terrell 89 72 90 75 / 0 0 20 20 Corsicana 90 75 91 77 / 0 10 20 20 Temple 90 75 90 77 / 0 10 20 20 Mineral Wells 89 71 88 73 / 0 0 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30