Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS64 KFWD 311946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
246 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/
/Through Wednesday/

Following last night`s frontal passage, mostly cloudy skies and
breezy northerly winds prevail. Temperatures are only in the upper 50s
as of this writing, and are unlikely to make it out of the 60s
this afternoon. Today`s forecast highs are 4-8 degrees below
normal for March 31.

Skies will continue to scatter out through the afternoon, and the
northerly winds should relax as a 1006 mb low over the Deep South
moves farther away from us. This combination should allow for some
warming this afternoon, but as mentioned in the previous
paragraph, our highs today will still be well below normal.
Tonight, the surface ridge axis will slide to the east, allowing
light southerly winds to return. The light winds and mostly clear
skies tonight should allow lows to drop into the 40s for much of
North and Central Texas, though the urban core of the Dallas/Fort
Worth Metropolitan Area will likely remain in the 50s.

Wednesday will start off sunny and cool. Temperatures will warm
back to near normal with the sunny skies and increasing southerly
flow. Mid-level clouds look to increase late in the afternoon
however as moisture increases around the 500 mb pressure surface
in response to an amplifying trough over the West Coast. Clouds
will increase from southwest to northeast, but most locations
should still manage to hit highs in the low to mid 70s.



/Wednesday Night into Early Next Week/

Moisture will continue to increase Wednesday night, as a surface
high pressure moves to our east and the southerly flow returns to
our region. This also means that the overnight low temperatures will
be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday night.

The quiet weather will come to an end on Thursday, as a series of
disturbances march across the Southern Plains at least through early
next week. Thursday`s rain/storm chances will depend on how much
lift and moisture will be available. Model guidance continues to
show a weak shortwave moving over us and a dryline setting up
over West TX. As this boundary moves closer to our area, we might
see a few showers and isolated storms develop across parts of
North and Central TX. We still expect that thunderstorm coverage
will be limited, as much of the area will likely remain capped
under overcast skies. The clouds will also keep the afternoon
temperatures mainly in the low to mid 70s.

The main focus of this forecast is to continue to talk about
Friday`s rain and storms. Not much change was made from the
previous forecast. We`re still looking at a surface low and cold
front that will move into North Texas Friday afternoon or evening.
Storms will likely develop into a broken or organized line along
the boundary. There are still some uncertainties on the severe
weather potential and how the convective elements will come into
place. Nevertheless, there is a potential for a few strong storms
with hail and gusty winds as the main threat. In addition to this,
we are monitoring the potential for heavy precipitation across
parts of Central and East TX Friday night and Saturday morning as
the cold front slows down or stalls over this area. Rainfall
totals between 1 and 2 inches are possible, and may cause minor
flooding issues.

The active weather pattern continues into early next week, as the
front slowly swings back into our area. It appears that the large-scale
pattern will also support widespread rain chances. Long-range
models suggest a trough over the West Coast, that will send a
couple of disturbances over our region. In addition to the rain
chances, a warming trend is expected as we head into next week,
with temperatures reaching the 80s by Monday.



.AVIATION... /Issued 1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns -- All terminals becoming VFR shortly. South flow
returning this evening.

Clouds continue to scatter gradually, but for now, most sites
remain MVFR. KACT has been reporting SCT skies for a couple hours,
but visible satellite suggests that some intermittent BKN skies
will be possible over the next couple of hours. All sites should
become VFR within the next few hours, then remain so through the
end of the TAF period.

With regards to winds, northerly winds of around 10 KT continue,
with winds being a bit more gusty at KACT closer to the departing
cold front. Winds should relax through the afternoon, and become
southerly late this evening.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    52  71  56  72  64 /   0   0   0  30  10
Waco                48  71  56  73  64 /   0   0   0  40  20
Paris               49  71  53  71  60 /   0   0   0  30  30
Denton              46  70  54  72  62 /   0   0   0  30  10
McKinney            46  70  54  71  62 /   0   0   0  30  10
Dallas              51  71  55  72  64 /   0   0   0  30  10
Terrell             48  71  53  73  62 /   0   0   0  30  20
Corsicana           50  71  55  73  63 /   0   0   0  30  20
Temple              47  73  56  72  64 /   0   0   0  50  20
Mineral Wells       47  73  54  73  62 /   0   0   0  30   5




17/37 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.