740
FXUS64 KEPZ 140527
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1127 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Hot and dry conditions will continue into early next week with
just a few showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and far
eastern areas through Friday. High temperatures for the lowlands
will continue to be at or above 100 degrees through at least
Tuesday before a gradual cool down starts for the middle of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Models in very good agreement through early next week. Upper ridge
currently over the region will get broken down over the next 24-36
hours, which would typically bring a nice cool down in
temperatures, but instead we get into a dry west to southwest
flow which just keeps temperatures hot. The upper low that breaks
down the ridge will not have much moisture with it, especially low
level, but just enough instability that a few storms are possible
over the mountains the far east Friday. NBM Pops seemed high and
lowered about 10-20 percent, especially over the eastern lowlands. As
the system passes, winds behind it will pick up over areas west
of the Divide to 15-25 mph. Temperatures will drop about 2 to 5
degrees, but most lowland areas will remain at or above 100
degrees.

Saturday through Tuesday will just see the upper flow go from west
to southwest as another trough moves onshore. Occasional breezy
winds, especially Mon/Tue will keep the fire danger elevated.
Temperatures with the southwest surface winds will continue to
remain in the triple digits for the lowlands but likely falling
short of record highs. NBM temperatures seem to have caught onto
the recent low bias and look reasonable most days. Additional
advisories will likely be needed starting Sat RGV and across most
of the lowlands by Sun, but for simplicity, will leave highlights
going as is.

As the upper trough deepens by midweek, the surface low will
shift toward the Rio Grande Valley and bring in some low level
moisture and cooler temperatures. Operational GFS is the most
aggressive with this moisture push and cool down, but it`s
ensemble mean is closer to the EC operational and mean, so will
lean toward the mean for now. This brings in some isolated to
widely scattered pops into the eastern zones by Wed afternoon and
again Thu with a better westward push. Temperatures have the
chance with a good moisture push and the southeast surface winds
to drop highs down to around 100 for the El Paso area and mid to
upper 90s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Most of the wandering outflow boundaries tonight have died off and
the winds are slowly coming down. KDMN still has some low end gusty
winds. In general our winds will be light tonight, but it won`t
last. An approaching upper level storm system will bring another
round of breezy and low end gusty winds to the area Friday
afternoon. The winds will drop back off around Friday evening`s
sunset. Our ceilings will generally be unlimited tonight, with some
occasional high and mid clouds floating by. We may see a few showers
or thunderstorms Friday afternoon mainly in area mountains. Like
today, any storms that do form could produce gusty outflow winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Besides a few isolated storms this afternoon and Friday, dry and
continued hot will be the story. West winds will increase later in
the day Friday across SW NM. Expect a few hours of critical or
near critical conditions over the Gila during this time.  West to
southwest winds will continue for the weekend into early next
week which will keep temperatures around 100 to 105 with RH`s in
the single digits for the lowlands. Winds will pick up once again
toward critical speeds Monday and Tuesday and combine with these
low RH`s. Possible moisture push for the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 110  78 106  75 /  10  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca           102  72  99  71 /  10  10  10  20
Las Cruces              108  73 105  69 /   0  10  10  10
Alamogordo              106  72 101  68 /   0  10  30  20
Cloudcroft               82  58  78  55 /  10  10  50  30
Truth or Consequences   104  73  99  70 /   0  20  30  10
Silver City              99  68  96  65 /  10  20  20   0
Deming                  107  68 104  63 /   0  10  10  10
Lordsburg               105  71 101  66 /  10  20  10   0
West El Paso Metro      107  76 104  73 /  10  10  10  10
Dell City               106  71 102  68 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Hancock            109  73 106  70 /  10  10  10  20
Loma Linda              101  73  98  70 /  10  10  10  20
Fabens                  110  72 107  69 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Teresa            107  72 103  69 /   0  10  10  10
White Sands HQ          107  75 101  72 /  10  10  20  10
Jornada Range           107  65 102  63 /   0  10  20  10
Hatch                   108  70 104  67 /   0  10  20  10
Columbus                107  75 104  72 /   0  10  10  10
Orogrande               105  74 101  71 /  10  10  20  20
Mayhill                  94  61  88  58 /  10  10  50  30
Mescalero                94  60  88  57 /  10  10  50  30
Timberon                 91  58  87  55 /  10  10  30  20
Winston                  96  62  89  59 /  10  20  30  10
Hillsboro               102  71  96  68 /  10  20  20  10
Spaceport               105  68  99  65 /   0  10  30  10
Lake Roberts             98  52  91  47 /  10  20  20   0
Hurley                  102  66  98  63 /  10  10  20   0
Cliff                   107  58 101  53 /  10  10  20   0
Mule Creek              101  57  97  52 /  10  20  10   0
Faywood                 101  69  96  66 /  10  10  20  10
Animas                  105  71 102  68 /  10  10  10   0
Hachita                 105  69 102  66 /   0  10  10   0
Antelope Wells          105  71 102  68 /  10  10  10   0
Cloverdale              100  71  96  68 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ420>422.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ418-419-
     423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ401-403>411-414-416-
     417-425-427>429.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ110.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown