680
FXUS65 KPUB 111130
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
530 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop later today,
 mainly over the higher terrain and along the I-25 corridor.

-Stronger to severe storms may occur along and just east of the
 I-25 corridor, which could produce gusty outflow winds to 60
 mph and hail up to quarter size.

-Warming up and drying out Wednesday and Thursday with record
 temperatures possible.

-Showers and thunderstorms chances increase Thursday night and
 Friday.

-Warmer, drier and windier conditions leading to increasing fire
 danger Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Detailed discussion:

Today...

A major shortwave downstream will continue to pull away from the
region, with some residual mid-level moisture in it`s wake and weak
troughing with northwesterly flow that will allow for convection to
develop this afternoon over the higher terrain with orographic
lifting and the drift southeastward and over the I-25 corridor.
Given that there will be some good upslope winds and quite
conditionally unstable by later this afternoon with MLCAPE values
exceeding 2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear approaching 30 kts in
some locations along the I-25 corridor and just east, there will be
to possibility for some of these storms to become strong to severe.
If this does occur, it could produce gusty outflow winds to 60 mph
and hail of possibly up to quarter size. The better amount of mid-
level moisture looks to remain mainly south of Highway 50, although
there will likely be storms developing over the Pike`s Peak Region
(PPR) and Ramparts with better forcing in place that make their way
over the Palmer Divide and Colorado Springs/Fountain area, which may
become severe as they do. CAMs and HREF paintballs target all areas
along the I-25 corridor. The HRRR does peg most of the convection
developing around 2 to 3 PM over these areas, especially over the
PPR. The NAMNest is similar with the timing and areas of convection,
and also shows most of the higher concentration of storms over the
Ramparts/PPR and also the southern Sangre de Cristos. Most of the
storms look to lose their intensity quickly as they move further
towards the east since there will be lesser CAPE and more CIN
(capping) in place. They will also likely dissipate shortly after
sunset as daytime heating is lost and the lower levels become more
stable.

With easterly winds over the plains, it will keep in the relatively
cooler airmass, although it will be warming up and closer to the
seasonal average for most locations. Expect highs to top out around
the 90 degree mark for most areas across the plains, especially
within the lower Arkansas River Valley. For the San Luis Valley and
upper Arkansas River Valley, it will be around the 80 degree mark,
and generally in the 50s and 60s for the higher elevations and 70s
within the high mountain valleys.

Tonight...

Skies will continue to clear with relatively light winds expected
across the region. This will allow for radiational cooling to drop
temperatures into the mid 50s to low 60s across the plains, and
generally in the 40s to low 50s for high country, with even a few
upper 30s for the highest elevations.   -Stewey

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Wednesday-Thursday...Latest model data continues to indicate modest
west to northwest flow developing across the region as upper level
ridging builds back across the Rockies through the middle of the
work week. Warmer and drier air moving into the Rockies will support
drier conditions across the area, as low level moisture mixes out
across the region. There still will be enough moisture, to work
with early summer solar heating, to support isolated to scattered
high based showers, and a possible thunderstorm, mainly over and
near the higher terrain each day, with Thursday expected to have the
least coverage of showers. With the drier and warmer air working into
the region, temperatures are expected to warm back to above seasonal
levels with near record high temperatures in the 90s to low 100s
across the plains, with highs mainly in the 70s and 80s across the
higher terrain.

Current records for June 12th and June 13th at ALS are 89F in 2022
and 90F in 2021, 95F in 2022 and 95F in 2022 at COS, and 104F in 1981
and 102F in 2022 at PUB.

Thursday night-Saturday...Upper level ridging breaks down with increasing
southwest flow aloft across the region ahead of an eastern Pacific system
progged to lift out across the Desert Southwest and across the Rockies
Friday and Saturday. Increasing uvv and moisture spreading across the
Rockies, combined with surging low level moisture back across the Plains,
will bring chances of storms across the Plains Thursday night, with good
chances of showers and thunderstorms areawide on Friday. Residual moisture
behind the passing system will keep isolated to scattered showers and
storms across the region on Saturday as well, with the best coverage over
the higher terrain. Temperatures cool down through the period, though will
still be at to slightly above seasonal levels both Friday and Saturday.

Sunday-Monday...Moderate west to southwest flow aloft develops across the
region into early next week, with upper level high pressure across the
southern Rockies and into the southern High Plains as occasional short
waves translate through the stronger zonal flow in place across the Northern
Tier. This will bring drier and warmer conditions back across the region,
along with breezy conditions, leading to the potential for critical fire
weather conditions through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be light
(mostly less than 10 kts) and mainly diurnally influenced at all
terminals. SHRA and TSRA will be possible in and around the vicinity
of all stations later in the afternoon and evening today. If
SHRA/TSRA does develop, it could temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to
MVFR/IFR criteria. It could also result in periodic windshifts and
increased wind speeds for all terminals. There will also be a
moderate chance of stronger storms for both KCOS and KPUB,
which may result in winds approaching 50 kts and hail up to
quarter size in diameter, as well as significantly reduced VIS
in +TSRA, resulting in the possibility of temporary LIFR
criteria.  -Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STEWARD