561
FXUS64 KTSA 061937
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
237 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A weak cold front is currently situated south of the KS/OK
border. The front will continue to progress southward through the
forecast area the rest of the afternoon and through this evening.
Radar imagery shows a few showers and thunderstorms riding the
frontal boundary/mid-level shortwave across southwest MO. If they
hold together, they will likely clip portions of northwest AR
in the next couple of hours. Impacts are expected to be minimal
and most locations remain dry. Otherwise, tranquil weather is
expected tonight under mostly clear/partly cloudy skies. Overnight
lows will range from the lower 60s in far northeast OK and far
northwest AR to mid-upper 60s elsewhere.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Southerly winds will return Friday, increasing low-level moisture
and instability into the region. Temperatures will climb into the
upper 80s and lower 90s in most locations during the afternoon.
Latest forecast model data suggests Friday stays mostly dry as
mid/upper-level ridging builds over west TX/east NM. A weak mid-
level perturbation is expected to form in the northwest flow and
eject off the Rockies Friday afternoon/evening. Contrary to
previous forecasts, the brunt of the wave is now expected to
remain north of the forecast area, but the southern periphery of
the trough may clip portions of northeast OK and northwest AR.
Kept the mention of showers and thunderstorms for locations for
this area for now (20-30% chance), but trends continues, PoPs may
need to be removed completely for the area.

Saturday is expected to be the warmest day of the forecast period
as warm air advection strengthens and low-level (925-850 mb)
temperatures drastically warm. As diurnal mixing occurs,
temperatures are expected to rapidly increase into the low-mid 90s
in the afternoon. Cloud cover during the morning and early afternoon
hours my hinder heating across northeast OK and northwest AR, but
skies are forecast to become mostly clear by mid-afternoon. With
an abundant amount of low-level moisture, heat index values are
expected to rise to near 100F in most locations. Therefore, proper
heat precautions should be taken if doing any extensive outdoor
activities on Saturday. Additionally, winds will become breezy out
of the southwest, with gusts 25-30 mph possible through the
afternoon.

Another shortwave trough will eject from the Rockies Saturday
evening. As it does this, showers and thunderstorms are expected
to form across KS/western OK as it interacts with a southward-
advancing surface cold front. A mid-level ridge axis will be
centered right over the forecast area much of Saturday evening and
night. This is likely one reason medium-range forecast models keep
much of precipitation north of the area Saturday night into
Sunday morning as the shortwave become nearly diffused in the
west-northwest flow aloft. If thunderstorms are able to penetrate
the forecast area Saturday night, they will be confined north of
I-40 and a few storms may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat,
as well as produce heavy rainfall. However, at this time, the
overall chance of severe storms is about 20% or less.

Consensus in models show the surface frontal boundary slowly
sagging southward into northeast OK/northwest AR Sunday morning,
drifting slowly toward the I-40 corridor by midday. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
along and just behind the frontal boundary Sunday
afternoon/evening, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
persisting into Monday morning. Still lots of uncertainty with
regards to the position of the frontal boundary by Monday with a
few models suggesting it stalls and oscillates north/south across
southeast OK/northwest AR during the daytime. One thing that looks
certain is drastically and unseasonably cooler temperatures
expected Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

Forecast confidence continues to lower beyond Monday, with models
suggesting a series of shortwave troughs moving over the area and
keeping at least slight precipitation chances through Tuesday
afternoon. Ridging is forecast to build back and strengthen by
Wednesday and temperatures will warm through the remainder of the
week as a result.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Scattered clouds in the 8-12 kft layer will continue, mainly for
the terminals north of I-40 into the afternoon. A few scattered
clouds down to 5 kft may develop this afternoon for all areas. In
terms of precipitation, no precipitation is expected, but there
is still a 10% chance of a pop up shower or thunderstorm for the
terminals north of I-40 this afternoon and evening. Winds will be
light and out of the northeast today, becoming south to southeast
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  89  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   69  91  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   67  91  73  93 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   62  88  71  94 /  10  10  30  10
FYV   62  89  70  91 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   60  88  68  91 /   0   0  20  30
MKO   67  88  72  92 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   61  87  69  91 /   0  10  30  30
F10   66  89  73  93 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   68  88  70  91 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06