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065
FXUS61 KCAR 210152
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
952 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will exit the area late tonight and will be
followed by high pressure on Friday. Low pressure will approach
on Saturday and track north of our area Sunday. A cold front
will cross the area Monday followed by high pressure building in
Tuesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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950 PM Update:
Instability continues to wane with little to no
lightning activity currently detected across the area. Forecast
soundings along the coast show warming mid-levels contributing
to weaker mid level lapse rates and lower MUCAPE for parcels
initiating above the low level inversion leftover from previous
strong to severe thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Trimmed
isolated thunder further and confined it to the coast and
adjacent coastal waters with this update. Limited elevated
instability, primarily around and below the freezing level, and
lift from the cold front will maintain a chance of showers into
the evening, with numerous showers and a period of light rain
between Bangor and Bar Harbor. Dew points have fallen into the
mid 50s across northern Maine behind the front. This much drier
air will filter into the rest of the area by late tonight,
providing much needed relief from the heat wave of the past few
days.

Previous Discussion:
The front exits off the coast later tonight. Still looking for
cooler temperatures and lower dew points to advect southward
into Friday, but did bump up Friday highs slightly with some low
80s Downeast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday Night and Saturday...
Zonal WNW flow over the area with a strengthening WNW/ESE
oriented front positioned just south of our forecast area.
Cloudy/mostly cloudy skies Fri night/Sat Downeast, but partly
cloudy skies north. Also a chance of rain over southern portions
of the area with likely dry conditions in the north. Area will
be under a stable airmass on the north (cool) side of the
front, and don`t expect any thunderstorms. Some fog near the
coast.

Saturday Night...
The front to our south begins to creep north and close to
Downeast as a warm front, and expect increasing rain chances
from south to north as this occurs. Still expect the more
significant rain toward Sunday though.

Sunday...
As an upper trough approaches from the west, the warm front
extending east from an approaching surface low around Ottawa
continues to pivot north. Still some uncertainty on the frontal
positioning, but it appears the heavier rainfall will be over
Northern Maine just north of the warm front where good
overrunning will be occurring. Good shot that areas with the
best overrunning just north of the front could exceed an inch of
rain during the day Sunday and into Sunday evening. Chance of
storms late in the day, best chance Downeast, in the warm sector
south of the warm front advancing north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface low pressure looks to track east across either Northern
Maine or just north of us Sun night/Mon, with a cold front
moving through around late Monday. Still a good amount of
uncertainty on how exactly things evolve, but looks like wet,
unsettled conditions Sun night/Mon with potential for
thunderstorms as well.

Looking for a bit of a break around Tuesday, but the next cold
front with shower/thunderstorm potential looks on track for
Wed/Thu. Still about 24 hours of timing uncertainty for this
Wed/Thu system.

Temperatures Sun night to Thu generally near or a bit warmer
than average.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR with NW winds 5-15 kts. Another round of
scattered showers will continue this evening through about 4-5z
at KBGR and KBHB. A small (10 to 15 percent) chance of thunder
remains for KBHB through this time.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night and Saturday... VFR north. MVFR possibly developing
Downeast late Friday night into Saturday with potential for
light rain. Possible IFR or worse in low clouds and fog along
coast, including BHB late Fri night into Sat. Light winds
becoming S 5-10 kts Sat.

Saturday Night...IFR likely Downeast, including BHB/BGR, esp
after midnight. Generally VFR from HUL north. S wind 5 kts.

Sunday through Monday...Mainly MVR, with periods of IFR, with
rain and low clouds. Potential of storms Downeast Sunday and
areawide Monday. S winds around 10 kts.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Winds becoming NW around 10 kts, with
conditions gradually improving to mostly VFR for Tuesday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds will shift to northwest later tonight, and
eventually to northeast by Friday morning. Seas are expected to
remain around 2 to 3 feet.

SHORT TERM: Small craft level seas appear likely Sun night to
Tue morning, with the potential for small craft level winds as
well.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...MCW/MStrauser
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...MStrauser/Foisy
Marine...MStrauser/Foisy