578
FXUS63 KIND 170702
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
302 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extended period of hot and humid conditions through next weekend

- Afternoon heat indices approaching 100 this week may be hazardous
  to sensitive and vulnerable groups

- Isolated to scattered storms today and tomorrow afternoon,
additional storm chances over the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Today...

Another hot and humid day expected across the entire region as a
tropical airmass remains in place. Temperatures have been slow to
fall during the overnight hours and into this morning with some
locations holding steady around the 80 degree mark, much warmer than
what guidance has suggested for lows. Latest IND ACARs sounding
around 0620z still shows steep low and mid level lapse rates with no
low level or subsidence inversion present. Noticing this, once the
sun comes back up, expect surface temperatures to heat up fast as
deep mixing quickly begins.

Kept max temperatures for this afternoon closer to the NBM25th
percentile, which puts forecasted highs in the 92-95 degree range
for most places. With an uncapped, very moist airmass and unstable
airmass, cumulus clouds will likely develop by late morning and
persist through the day. Weak upper level energy riding up the
western edge of the ridge into the state will work to spark off
isolated to scattered thunderstorms as convective temperatures are
reached. This is the main reason for not going higher with max
temperatures for today. A few spots that escape storms may reach 95+
degrees, but with increased clouds and storms around, most places
should stay below 95 degrees. Nonetheless, temperatures in the 90s
with such high humidity levels will result in heat indices in the
98 to 103 degree range.

Convective coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely
scattered at best due to lack of appreciable forcing and very weak
wind shear. Any storms that do develop will likely be short lived
and slow moving. Will have to watch local mesoscale processes and
outflow boundaries that develop as this may enhance wind shear
locally and create an environment more suitable for storm
development in certain locations. Heavy rain and lightning are the
main threats with any storm. With little wind shear, storms likely
will become top heavy and collapse relatively quickly, resulting in
a brief strong wind gust threat as convection collapses. Overall,
most areas will remain dry, so do not rely on storms to provide
widespread beneficial rainfall or relief from the heat. In fact,
areas that do see rainfall will likely be more humid this week
resulting in higher heat indices and warmer overnight lows.

Overnight lows tonight will likely be in thge 70s for most places,
with more urban areas holding steady in the upper 70s to near 80
through the nighttime hours.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND

Tuesday and Wednesday...

An extended period of hot and humid conditions persists into next
weekend with daily highs in the 90s and heat indices approaching 100
degrees. Anomalously strong upper ridging centered near the
Northeast will continue to amplify resulting in increasing heights
over the entire Eastern and NE CONUS. At the surface, high pressure
also centered across the Northeast will promote southerly return
flow from the Gulf across the Ohio Valley early in the period.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, a plume of deeper moisture will move
north into the region likely resulting in an increased cloud cover
and a continued chance for isolated thunderstorms. Adding isolated
storm chances to the Tuesday morning timeframe as guidance continues
to indicate a weak upper wave and strengthening LLJ capable of
producing some convection outside of peak heating hours. Similar to
Monday, lack of forcing and wind shear will keep convective
coverage isolated to widely scattered at best, but will have to
watch local mesoscale boundaries that can enhance storm coverage and
intensity in some spots. The combination of clouds and storms will
keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than Monday, but still hot in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. High humidity values will likely result
in heat indices still in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees during the
afternoon hours both days.

Lower confidence for high temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday (with
models showing a wider spread in between 25th and 75th percentiles
on temperatures) precludes any issuance of excessive heat products
at this time. However, will still have to keep a close eye on the
cumulative effects of the heat this week.

Thursday into Next Weekend...

Upper ridging is expected to retrograde late in the week and build
back west which will bring even warmer 850mb temperatures towards
central Indiana compared to earlier in the week. This could result
in hotter temperatures Thursday/Friday with highs possibly at or
above 95 degrees. Humidity may be slightly lower late week as
surface high pressure also builds west helping to advect drier air
into the mid levels, which may mix down to the surface during the
daytime hours. Even with lower dew points, mid to upper 60s rather
than 70s, feels like temperatures may still exceed 100 degrees.

The extended stretch of heat this early in the season
is abnormal so make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks
in air conditioning if you are outdoors. Sensitive and vulnerable
groups should especially take the necessary precautions to avoid the
potentially hazardous temperatures.

Most guidance shows upper ridging breaking down late weekend
allowing for a system to move in from the northwest. While there is
a good signal the ridge will break down, there is disagreement
between models in how quickly this occurs which limits confidence on
exact details such as precipitation chances or timing. The best
chance for rain at this time appears to be on Sunday once a
shortwave trough moves into the region. Increasing rain chances and
clouds should bring some relief to the heat, but there is
uncertainty in how much this will help.

Longer range guidance continues to indicate a pattern supportive of
above normal temperatures into the last week of June and early July.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1043 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Impacts:

- Isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon

Discussion:

Moisture advection will bring a more robust cumulus field, and
isolated showers and thunderstorms. Coverage is limited and thus
probability of impact is too low for inclusion in the TAFs at this
time. Mixing will again be enough for at least sporadic wind gusts
up around 15-17 knots during the warmest part of the day.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...BRB