547
FXUS62 KMFL 070711
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
311 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The shortwave trough will continue to migrate east-southeastward
today while an associated surface frontal boundary pushes
southward across the SE CONUS. This will begin veering winds
across the area to the southwest, continuing to advect warmer
moist air in from the south. Thus, the current trend of
abnormally warm temperatures remains on track with afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices will likewise climb
into the 105-110 range for most areas, but scattered showers and
thunderstorms could provide some relief wherever they form. A
heat advisory has currently been issued for Miami-Dade county
with heat indices expected to exceed 105F for more than 2 hours,
and this could end up getting expanded to other counties. In
terms of showers and thunderstorms, conditions will not be as
favorable for severe thunderstorms since warm air advection will
result in warmer mid-level temperatures likely around -5C
compared to  -8 to -9C the last day or two, which will help to
stabilize the atmosphere. However, we could still see a few
stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy downpours as the afternoon sea breezes form.

Saturday will be highly similar to Friday with a more stable
atmosphere and the trough beginning to exit the region, but there
will still be some afternoon showers and sub-severe storms across
South Florida. Ongoing warm advection could result in heat
indices rising even a couple degrees higher than Friday, so a Heat
Advisory or Excessive Heat Warning may become necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

To open the weekend, the mid-level trough will begin to depart
the area with its attendant surface boundary approaching northern
Florida before stalling out. This will keep a south-southwesterly
wind regime in place across the area. Sea breezes will be the
primary driver for ascent and thunderstorm development through the
weekend, although with enhanced southerly flow, temperatures
aloft will begin to warm to the -4 to -6 degree range, so this
should limit stronger storm potential. PoPs will be around 50-60%
for most locations this weekend and convection should trend more
towards the east coast compared to the west coast under light
west-southwest flow. High temperatures could reach the mid to
upper 90s each day, with areas in the interior potentially topping
out in the triple digits. Heat indices will climb into the mid
100s for most areas under southwest flow, and thus there is an
increasing potential for Heat Advisories or even an Excessive Heat
Warning issuance for portions of the area.

For early to the middle of next week, guidance starts to vary more
drastically. Overall, most guidance is hinting at the potential
for a disturbance to form in the Caribbean or GOM which would have
the potential to impact the region at some point next week. Local
weather across South Florida will depend heavily on the exact
track and development of this disturbance. Overall, there is no
real consensus yet regarding potential impacts for the area. For
now, keeping POPs capped at 70% for each afternoon through the
middle of next week, although these may need to be nudged upward
(or even downward) as guidance comes into better agreement
regarding the disturbance. At the very least, a disturbance in the
general vicinity (anywhere from the western Gulf waters near the
TX/LA border or over the Atlantic waters) would only reinforce the
southerly flow in place, so rain chances will likely remain
higher next week regardless as enhanced moisture filters in across
the area from the south. Stay tuned for more through the week
regarding any potentially impactful weather concerns.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR continues at all terminals through around 15Z, then another
round of showers and thunderstorms may bring brief periods of
MVFR/IFR cigs/vis. Winds veer to the S/SSW around 10kt this
afternoon, then light and variable later in the evening. Only
exception will be APF where a westerly flow develops with
afternoon Gulf breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Generally benign boating conditions should prevail across the
coastal waters through the weekend and likely into early next
week, with winds in the 5-10kt range. Only exception will be in
the vicinity of any thunderstorm that forms, which will bring
brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. Seas are expected at
2 feet or less across all local waters for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  79  91  79 /  60  40  50  50
West Kendall     93  76  93  76 /  60  40  50  50
Opa-Locka        93  78  93  79 /  60  40  50  40
Homestead        91  77  90  78 /  60  40  50  50
Fort Lauderdale  91  79  90  79 /  60  40  50  50
N Ft Lauderdale  92  78  91  79 /  60  40  50  40
Pembroke Pines   95  79  94  80 /  60  40  50  40
West Palm Beach  94  76  93  77 /  60  40  50  30
Boca Raton       93  77  93  78 /  60  40  50  40
Naples           92  79  93  80 /  60  20  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ073-074.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE....WR
AVIATION...17