Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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436 FXUS62 KMLB 262347 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 747 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR gradually returns to the sites through 03z, though lingering TSRA will continue to impact SFB/DAB over the next few hours. IFR conditions are possible there until this activity gradually dissipates. Overnight, light SW flow with decreasing clouds is expected. SW winds increase to around 10 kt by 15z Thu before scattered SHRA/TSRA develop and push toward the coast 18z thru 00z Fri. TEMPOs may be needed in future TAFs. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 406 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Current-Thursday... The east coast sea breeze has formed and is pushing inland this afternoon, and is approximately around the I-95 corridor. Scattered showers and a few lightning storms have developed already along the sea breeze, mainly across the Treasure Coast. The west coast sea breeze has also formed and is pushing inland, with scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms developing along it, producing outflow boundaries which are quickly approaching ECFL. These outflow boundaries are expected to move into ECFL and collide with the east coast sea breeze along the I-95 corridor, sparking additional activity along the collision. Redevelopment of showers and storms are expected along the interior later this afternoon and into the early evening as the west coast sea breeze moves into ECFL and interacts with outflow boundaries. Highest coverage of showers and storms (PoP 60 percent) will occur along these sea breeze/outflow boundary collisions- along the I-95 corridor mid to late afternoon, and across the interior later afternoon into early evening. Main storm threats will be frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds up to 35 mph. Hot and muggy conditions continue with a Moderate to Major Heat Risk remaining today. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices ranging from 102-106 degrees. Any lingering activity from this afternoon and early evening should dissipate or move out of the local area shortly after sunset. Easterly winds will become light and from the west to southwest overnight. Seasonable and humid conditions tonight, with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Thursday, An upper level trough across Quebec will build southward as it shifts eastward, pulling a surface boundary across the SE US. Locally, west to southwest flow will persist as the western flank of the Bermuda high dominates. The offshore flow will remain light enough that the east coast sea breeze is expected to form once again and push inland. The west coast sea breeze remains favored, with a sea breeze collision forecast along the I-95 corridor once again in the afternoon. Higher coverage of showers and lightning storms remains with PoP 60 percent in the afternoon areawide. High temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values between 102-106 degrees. Friday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Mid level troughing and an accompanying surface boundary sink across the southeast U.S., washing out as it approaches north Florida on Friday. The western flank of Atlantic high pressure continues to hold influence over central Florida, keeping west to southwest flow in place through Friday afternoon. The west coast sea breeze remains favored, with a sea breeze collision forecast across the interior in the afternoon. With little change expected in the pattern by Friday, have kept a persistent forecast with PoPs up to 60% each afternoon. High temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values between 103-107 degrees. Saturday-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) The surface ridge axis lifts northward through Saturday, settling across the central peninsula into early next week. Winds become light and variable on Saturday, with a broad southerly component developing by Sunday. The summertime pattern continues each day, favoring diurnal showers and lightning storms. Afternoon temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values between 103-107 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 406 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will remain across the Florida Straits into tonight. SW flow today has shifted SE/S this afternoon behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to SW overnight, with speeds generally around 10 KT. Seas will be 2 ft. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible this afternoon through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters. Thursday-Monday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Seas around 2 ft gradually increase to 3 ft across the offshore waters Thursday and Friday as an onshore swell increases. Light offshore winds become onshore Saturday before developing a broad southerly component on Sunday. Winds back with the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon. A summertime pattern continues with high coverage of showers and storms forecast across the local waters (50-70%) each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 94 76 93 / 60 60 20 60 MCO 76 93 77 93 / 30 60 10 60 MLB 76 93 76 92 / 30 60 20 60 VRB 74 93 75 93 / 30 60 20 60 LEE 76 93 78 93 / 20 60 10 60 SFB 76 94 77 94 / 50 60 10 60 ORL 77 93 78 94 / 40 60 10 60 FPR 74 92 74 92 / 30 60 20 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Schaper