591
FXUS62 KMLB 281740
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
140 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Showers and storms moving across ECFL this afternoon, with
increasing coverage forecast through the remainder of today,
especially across the coastal terminals south of the Cape. VCTS
at most sites between 18-03Z, with TEMPOs in for MVFR conditions
due to TSRA between 18-23Z. Activity will diminish across the
terminals after 03Z, with winds becoming light and variable
overnight. Winds pick back up out of the ENE and become more
easterly as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Another
afternoon of showers and storms is forecast for tomorrow, with
VCSH/VCTS starting as early as 17Z.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Scattered shower and isolated lightning storms are streaming
onshore of the west coast of Florida this morning. This activity
is pushing eastward around 10 mph, and moving into ECFL as of 1030
AM, mainly across Lake/Volusia counties. The Bermuda high axis
will shift slightly northward into south Florida today, resulting
in the east coast sea breeze forming and pushing a little farther
inland today. The 10Z XMR sounding shows a somewhat moist profile,
with PW value of 1.75", however there is some drier air in the
mid to upper levels. Forecast PW values increase into this
afternoon (PW values ranging form 2.0-2.3"), which with daytime
heating, will support scattered to numerous showers and lightning
storms to develop this afternoon and early evening. Have
maintained higher coverage of PoPs (60-70 percent) this afternoon
and early evening, with the greatest coverage of storms occurring
along any boundary collision from the sea breeze and outflow
boundaries, which look to occur west of the I-95 corridor across
east central FL. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning
strikes, gusty winds of 40-45 mph, and heavy downpours. Some
storms may be strong. Despite the weakening westerly steering flow
through the day, storms are expected to move back towards the
coast and offshore through late afternoon/evening. Hot and muggy
conditions persist with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s
with peak heat indices ranging from 102-107 degrees. Forecast
remains on track with only minor adjustments to rain and storm
chances into tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Today-Tonight...Relatively light offshore flow around 5-10 knots
will become E/SE into the afternoon up to around 10 knots closer to
the coast as sea breeze forms and moves inland. Winds then veer to
the S/SW into tonight, remaining around 5-10 knots. Seas will range
from 1-3 feet. Main concern for boaters will be the potential for
some storms to move back toward the coast and just offshore into the
afternoon and evening. Frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds
will occur with any stronger storms.

Saturday-Tuesday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west
Atlantic moves back northward across the waters into the weekend and
early next week. Southerly flow each morning will become onshore
into the afternoon as sea breeze will be able to form each day and
push inland. Sea breeze generated showers and storms each afternoon
should largely remain over land areas, but isolated to scattered
showers and storms will still be possible over the coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  76  91 /  40  60  40  40
MCO  77  91  76  91 /  30  70  30  60
MLB  76  90  76  90 /  40  60  30  40
VRB  75  90  76  90 /  40  50  30  40
LEE  78  93  77  93 /  30  70  30  60
SFB  76  92  76  92 /  30  70  30  60
ORL  77  93  77  92 /  30  70  30  60
FPR  75  90  76  90 /  40  50  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Tollefsen