Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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528 FXUS62 KMLB 181753 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 153 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Not the best day for flying. Easterly winds increasing to around 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts, remaining 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts at the coastal terminals while inland terminals settle to 10-15 kts overnight, then picking back again in the morning and afternoon. Increasing moisture will support mainly VFR -SHRA at all terminals through the TAF period, but occasional MVFR impacts will be possible. Best chances for these reductions in the near term from KMLB-KVRB and maybe KFPR where relatively deeper bands of convection are moving onshore, but beyond that very low confidence in location. && .UPDATE... Issued at 930 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Isolated, very shallow marine showers continue to push toward the coast this morning with a few coming ashore. The 10z XMR sounding, GOES-derived PW and water vapor imagery, and latest RAP analysis reveal an impressive dry layer above 800mb. CAMs and medium range guidance suggest that a push of moisture will arrive this afternoon, supporting slightly greater coverage of showers and even an isolated storm nearer to the coast. Similar to the previous forecast, thunder chances will be maximized over the adjacent Atlantic waters, though some lightning strikes could occur near and east of I-95. The QPF remains near or less than an inch along the coast with the highest amounts focused from around Cape Canaveral south to the Treasure Coast. Local amounts up to 1.5" cannot be discounted. Based on morning temperature trends, highs today were nudged up by a degree, especially inland. Quick-hitting heavy downpours will briefly lower temperatures in any given location, though overall afternoon highs should push the mid/upper 80s to low 90s (inland). && .MARINE... Issued at 512 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Today-Tonight (modified previous)...Poor to hazardous boating conditions with breezy to windy onshore flow through tonight. Wind speeds generally 15-20 KT across all the waters, increasing to 20-25 KT this afternoon across all the waters. Small Craft Advisory is in effect across the offshore waters, expanding to the nearshore waters this afternoon. Seas will be increasing to 5-8ft in the afternoon, before decreasing slightly overnight to 4-7ft. Scattered showers and lightning storms are possible this afternoon and into the evening. Wednesday-Saturday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions expected to continue through late week as a trough approaches the Florida peninsula as it moves towards the eastern US. Onshore flow will persist through the period , with winds generally 15-20 KT in the nearshore waters, and 20-25 KT in the offshore waters through Thursday. Winds will decrease to around 10 KT by late week and into the weekend. Seas 6-8ft on Wednesday will increase to 7-10 ft on Thursday before beginning to subside on Friday with seas decreasing to 4-6ft, and 3-4ft on Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Atlantic waters on Wednesday, and wil likely be extended in time through at least Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will be possible each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 87 76 87 / 30 60 60 60 MCO 76 88 76 88 / 30 50 30 50 MLB 77 87 77 87 / 50 60 50 60 VRB 76 88 76 87 / 50 50 50 60 LEE 77 90 76 91 / 30 40 20 40 SFB 75 89 75 89 / 30 50 40 50 ORL 76 89 76 89 / 30 50 30 50 FPR 76 87 76 87 / 40 50 50 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550-552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Haley