614
FXUS63 KILX 020737
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
237 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today will be a dry and nice day. Highs near 80 with partly
  cloudy skies.

- Monday through Wednesday night have several rounds of showers
  and thunderstorms on deck to move through. Some strong to severe
  thunderstorms could develop Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Today, slight ridging builds over our western CWA. There is some
patchy fog across central Illinois this morning. It should dissipate
as the sun rises. This will give us a nice, calm, and pretty day to
enjoy. Highs near 80, lows in the low-to-mid 60s, and partly cloudy
skies are expected today.

The next round of rain comes Monday through late Wednesday. The
forcing for Monday into Tuesday`s event comes from a shortwave
moving overhead. Wednesday has cold front expected to pass through
the Midwest extending out of a low in Canada. Monday`s and Tuesday`s
risk for severe weather is looking a bit better now, with Tuesday
possibly more so.

MONDAY MESOSCALE DETAILS --- Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and dew
points near 70 will be in place. MUCAPE by the afternoon is more
than decent (1500-3000 J/kg). Surface to 500mb bulk shear is
basically nonexistent (0-20 knots). Mid-level lapse rates are
around 7 C/km by 21z. Plenty of bouyancy and mid level lapse rates
could support short lived strong to severe thunderstorms, with
hail as a primary threat. A wind threat exists when a storm
collapses and pushes its gust front out.

After the cold front Wednesday, there could be a couple chances for
showers and/or thunderstorms over the weekend. More details will be
unveiled as we move into the middle of the week. High temps will
hang in the 80s through most of this new week.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SHRA have diminished, leaving a mix of ceilings ranging from IFR
over eastern IL to VFR in parts of central IL. Trends based on
guidance are for the lower ceilings to expand west overnight, with
IFR ceilings affecting KCMI-KDEC-KBMI. KPIA-KSPI could drop to IFR
at times but primarily expecting MVFR there. A slow rise in
ceilings is forecast after sunrise, turning VFR area wide late
morning through early afternoon.

25

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$