601
FXUS61 KAKQ 060008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
708 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Primarily dry conditions are expected from this weekend through
the middle of next week. Cool weather continues into next week.
Shower chances increase along a ahead of the next cold front by
late week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 700 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include much of
  the area along and west of the I-85, 95, and US-360 corridors
  due to the potential for freezing drizzle, fog, and refreeze
  tonight.

- Patchy fog is possible through tonight.


Expanded the Winter Weather Advisory after taking a look at
surface temperatures and model soundings. Freezing drizzle will
stick with us through the first half of the night across central
VA and the Piedmont before transitioning to fog/freezing fog
later in the night/early Saturday AM. With temperatures falling
below freezing, freezing fog and refreeze of melted slush is
expected. Black ice is possible on untreated surfaces as we head
through tonight into Saturday AM. The advisory now includes all
of the RIC metro and is in effect for areas along and west of
the I-85, 95, and US-360 corridors until 8 AM. There is the
possibility that Brunswick, Greensville, and Sussex counties
may need to be added to the advisory as well.

Previous Discussion:

Afternoon surface analysis depicted a weak area of low pressure
offshore and a surface high over eastern portions of the Mid-
Atlantic. Drier air has moved in aloft, allowing for most of the
snow to end this afternoon. However, a bit higher moisture
along with enough isentropic ascent closer to the low across SE
VA/NE NC has allowed for scattered light showers to continue
across SE VA/NE NC. As the low moves farther offshore this
afternoon into tonight, rain is expected to taper off from W to
E. However, forecast soundings continue to support patchy fog
across the area with drizzle possible as well through tonight.
The NAM shows the best potential for light freezing drizzle
across the northern Piedmont where temps remain below freezing
overnight. As such, have kept the Winter Weather Advisories in
effect for this area through 1 AM tonight. This may need to be
extend (temporally), however, will let the evening and overnight
shifts monitor radar trends this evening before extending.
Additionally, freezing fog cannot be ruled out across the
Piedmont as well, however, confidence is low. Elsewhere, Winter
Weather Advisories have ended given that accumulating snow has
ended.

Temps as of 125 PM ranged from the lower 30s NW to the mid 40s
SE with most in the 30s. Have blended hi-res guidance and HREF
with the NBM for overnight temps given that the NBM appears to
be far too cold. The widespread low-level cloud cover should
keep temps fairly steady overnight, with lows struggling to drop
below freezing east of I-95 and in the upper 20s to lower 30s
west of I-95. The coolest location looks to be the far NW
Piedmont where lows in the mid-upper 20s are possible. Given
that temps don`t cool significantly overnight, a hard refreeze
is unlikely east of I-95. However, any slush may refreeze west
of I-95 (potentially to around the I-95 corridor) given colder
temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Freezing fog is possible Saturday night across inland areas.

- Scattered rain or snow showers are possible on Monday.

- Very cold Monday night with lows in the mid-upper teens inland
  and 20s closer to the coast.

A shortwave continues to move through the area on Sat, allowing
for widespread cloud cover to persist through the day. Highs are
expected to remain in the 40s area-wide. Given the cloud cover,
highs may end up cooler than the NBM, particularly across S
portions of the FA (low-mid 40s as opposed to upper 40s).
Additionally, patch fog may linger into mid-late morning on Sat.

High pressure builds into the area on Sat night, allowing for
clearing skies and cold temps with lows in the mid-upper 20s
inland (mid 30s along the coast). Given high pressure overhead,
clear skies, and calm winds, a favorable radiational cooling
setup is expected. Forecast soundings (particularly the NAM)
show a sharp temp inversion across the area with saturation in
the very lowest levels of the sounding. This would support
widespread fog with the potential for locally dense fog (if
soundings verify). However, with surface temps potentially in
the mid- upper 20s inland, this could result in freezing fog
with the potential to cause slick spots due to black ice on
bridges and overpasses. While not explicitly forecast yet (given
the rarity of freezing fog and that we are still more than 24
hours before any potential freezing fog develops) this is
concerning. As such, we will continue to closely monitor
forecast trends and add fog (or freezing fog) to the grids if
models continue to support this potential tomorrow.

Outside of the fog/freezing fog potential Sat night, dry weather
is expected to continue through Sun with highs in the mid 40s N
to lower 50s S Sun. A cold airmass moves into the area on Mon as
a strong area of high pressure builds in from the Midwest and
Great Lakes. Highs Mon in the mid 30s NW to mid 40s SE are
expected (most in the 30s). Confidence remains low in scattered
rain or snow showers Mon across the area as a shortwave moves
through the area while a weak surface low slides offshore.
Nevertheless, there is a 15-35% chance for scattered rain/snow
showers. Any precip moves offshore Mon evening with a very cold
night expected Mon night. Lows Mon night in the mid-upper teens
inland and upper 20s to around 30F across far SE VA/NE NC
near and along the coast area expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM EST Friday...

- Moderating temperatures are expected through midweek with
  mainly dry conditions continuing.

Moderating temps are expected through midweek with highs in the
upper 30s to around 40F N to the mid 40s SE Tue, upper 40s NW to
mid 50s SE Wed and Thu, and mid 40s NW to low-mid 50s SE Fri.
Mainly dry weather is expected through midweek outside of a
slight chance for rain Thu and Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 PM EST Friday...

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to continue through
tonight into late Saturday morning and perhaps early Saturday
afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to show a temperature
inversion and saturated low levels which further support model
guidance. Confidence is highest in IFR/LIFR CIGs with lower
confidence in VIS. Given the inversion and low-level moisture,
patchy fog will continue to be possible into Saturday morning.
VIS may drop to IFR at times with the fog. Occasional drizzle
is possible overnight with freezing drizzle possible across the
Piedmont (likely remaining west RIC) where temps remain below
freezing. CIGs improve to MVFR by Saturday afternoon with
mostly cloudy skies continuing. Winds remain mainly light and
variable through Saturday.

Outlook: Another round of patchy fog/freezing fog is possible
Saturday night into Sunday which may result in reduced VIS if
it materializes. Otherwise, primarily VFR conditions return
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- SCA for VA coastal waters south of Cape Charles cancelled. SCA
  for NC waters continue into tonight for seas around 5ft.

- Benign marine conditions over the weekend, then another round
  of SCAs likely on Monday.

Low pressure has formed along the Carolina coast this afternoon with
high pressure well to the north, placing local waters in an area of
ENE flow. Latest obs show wind speeds around 10kt with gusts up to
15kt. Buoy obs indicates that seas have fallen to 3-4ft N of the
NC/VA border and 4-5ft off the northern NC coast. Went ahead and
cancelled the SCA for the waters between the border and Cape Charles
based on obs this afternoon, but the SCA for the NC waters will
persist into tonight.

Winds will turn to the N tonight at 10-15kt as the sfc low heads NE
away from the coast. High pressure slides in from the west tomorrow
and winds around 10kt turn to the W. Winds remain relatively light
through the weekend with wind direction changing as the sfc high
slides offshore. Seas will stay at 3-4ft tomorrow, then diminishing
to 2-3ft Sun. Waves will be 1-2ft both days. A cold front passage on
Monday will bring potential for another period of elevated northerly
winds. Latest forecast has wind increasing to 20-25kt over the bay
and ocean with 15-20kt in the rivers and sound Monday morning. Winds
diminish again by Tues morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Saturday for Vase-
060>062-064>069-075-076-080>083-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft
Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for Anz658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...AJB/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJB/RMM
MARINE...AC