851
FXUS61 KAKQ 140542
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
142 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will remain nearly stationary across northern
portions of the area through Saturday, before slowly dropping
south Saturday night and Sunday. This pattern will keep unsettled
conditions in place through the weekend. An upper level ridge
expands northward next week, bringing hot weather with lower
rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 935 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch in effect for central and eastern VA tonight
  through Saturday night.

- A Flood Watch is now in effect from Saturday afternoon
  through Saturday night in SE VA to account for additional
  storms tomorrow.

Active weather this afternoon has continued through the evening,
with numerous storms battering our northwestern counties with heavy
rainfall. While a few of the storms today have been strong to even
near severe, the main threat this evening has been hydro. Some areas
in Louisa have received upwards of 2.5" and it is still raining.
These storms have developed along a stationary boundary that is
draped across northern VA. The Wallops sounding sampled a PW of
1.82" and >1000 J/kg of ML CAPE with minimal inhibition which has
been an ideal environment for convection to develop and maintain
itself. This atmospheric moisture content is well above normal for
this time of year and has aided in producing the widespread high
rainfall rates within numerous showers and thunderstorms. Storms
have been slow moving this evening, which has helped lead to
isolated instances of flash-flooding across northern VA. We will
continue to monitor the northwest counties over the next few hours
for flash-flooding issues if these storms persist. A Flood Watch
remains in effect for a good portion of central and eastern VA
tonight. Temperatures outside of any rain-cooled areas remain in the
mid to upper 70s and dew points are in the lower 70s, making for a
muggier mid June evening.

Some CAMs suggest that convection will continue for the next few
hours, with a reprieve tomorrow morning into the early afternoon.
This drier period will allow the atmosphere to recharge itself for
another round of convection tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures during
the day before storms start to develop will soar into the upper 80s,
helping to refuel instability across the area. The aforementioned
front is will start to drop south, which will be the main trigger
for convection. High PW values will remain in place across the area,
which will once again help with the development of widespread
showers and thunderstorms likely starting early tomorrow afternoon.
Probabilistic guidance is suggesting there is a good chance for
areas around the Richmond Metro through the Hampton Roads to receive
2"+ of rainfall through tomorrow night. An additional Flood Watch is
in effect tomorrow for SE VA starting tomorrow afternoon due to this
signal for robust rainfall totals through tomorrow night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled Sunday, especially S of I-64.

- Additional rounds of heavy rain could lead to additional Flash
  flooding.

The front is expected to linger in the southern portion of the
area Sunday, keeping above normal PoPs throughout the area.
Current deterministic models show a moist airmass recovering
across the area as PW values are ~2.00". Additional QPF values
are 2-3" for much of the region through Sunday evening, though
with the scattered tstms, locally higher amounts are likely. An
additional Flood Watch may be needed Sunday for southern zones.
Highs Sunday will be much cooler N of the front, only low 70s
eastern shore, with mid-upper 80s far south. A Marginal SVR
risk is in place along and S of I-64, (mainly for wind) due to
slightly stronger flow aloft, though a lot of uncertainty exists
with respect to specifics on the location of the front. Still
unsettled Monday, with high chc to likely Pops.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Shower/storm chances drop off to near climo, with temperatures
  trending back above normal by mid to late week.

The latest 12z/13 ensemble guidance from both the GFS and ECWMF
are in decent agreement, depicting an upper level ridge along
the SE US coast expanding back north into the local area, with
some upper troughing lingering well off to our W and NW. This
setup will lead to warming temperatures, with a rather hot
stretch (and high humidity) likely Wed-Thu with highs peaking
into the low- mid 90s Thursday. Thursday could see heat indices
above 100F, possibly close to headlines in the SE (though this
is several days out so confidence is not real high). PoPs drop
off to only 20-40% chc Tue-Thu (highest inland). Friday will
have somewhat higher PoPs as the next cold front moves in from
the NW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR to MVFR CIGs to begin the 06z/14 TAF period. Showers and
embedded thunderstorms are diminishing for the rest of the
overnight period. Still expecting deteriorating flying
conditions early this morning, with CIGS to drop to MVFR to
potentially IFR tonight at all terminals after 08-10z/4-6a this
morning.

CIGs eventually recover to MVFR/low-end VFR by mid-morning into
Sat afternoon, before showers and storms increase again in
coverage and intensity tomorrow afternoon. Once again, there is
uncertainty in the evolution of storms this afternoon, so have
opted to include a PROB30 for -TSRA at all terminals to account
for the the possibility of numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms. The challenge will be exactly where storms
develop and when, so details of become a little more clear and
confidence increases, we will likely include TEMPOs to capture
the convection later this morning.

Outlook: Scattered to numerous, mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms
return again on Sun, bringing localized flight restrictions in
heavy rain and gusty winds. Rain chances remain elevated above
climo Monday, before dropping off by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign across the marine area into next week
  outside of convection.

A cold front will be nearly stationary across the Delmarva
tonight and Saturday, before slowly dropping south Sat night and
Sunday. Seas are between 2 to 3 ft, with 1-2 ft waves in the
Bay. Southerly winds will average 10-15 kt this evening, the
exception being over the northern coastal waters near the front
where wind directions may become onshore awhile, before shifting
back to the S. Any showers and thunderstorms will be handled
with SMWs. As the front drops south Sat night, E-NE winds
develop, gradually shifting south with time by later Sunday.
Seas are expected to build to ~3 ft (possibly 3-4 ft over the
waters N of Parramore Island). The front washes out next week,
with a more S/SW flow again by Tuesday, with sub-SCA conditions
continuing.

Rip currents are expected to remain low for Saturday,
then moderate N and low S for Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ048-060>062-064-068-
     069-075>078-082>086-090-099-100-509>525.
     Flood Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for
     VAZ067-080-081-088-089-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/NB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...HET/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/MAM/NB
MARINE...HET/LKB