581
FXUS61 KAKQ 091949
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
349 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds north of the area today into Friday with
much cooler and drier air filtering into the area. A coastal low
develops off the Southeast coast this weekend into early next
week, resulting in the potential for heavy rain and breezy
conditions for the eastern half of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Chilly and dry weather expected tonight.

The FA is seeing pleasant fall conditions this afternoon as sfc high
pressure builds southward from the eastern Great Lakes/New England.
The UL trough that swung through yesterday is now offshore, placing
the local area under NW flow. Cooler, drier air has filtered into
the area. Temps are in the mid to upper 60s and dew points in the
low to mid 40s. A little breezy, but otherwise very nice outside.
Areas W of I-95 are under clear skies while eastern counties have
most to partly sunny skies.

Overnight temperatures will be rather chilly, but not to the extent
it seemed it would be a day or two ago. It now looks like scattered
cloud cover moves inland a little sooner and winds remain light, not
calm. Regardless, expect temps to drop off fairly quickly after
sunset, especially in the NW. Lows tonight will be in the low 40s
for northwestern counties, mid to upper 40s in other inland
locations, and low to mid 50s closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry/cool weather continues into Friday.

- Rain chances increase throughout the day Saturday as a
  potentially significant coastal system begins to impact the
  region.

Another nice, autumnal day is in store for Friday. Sfc high pressure
to the N slides offshore and low pressure starts trying to spin up
somewhere near the coast of the SE CONUS. It will be another day of
highs in the mid to upper 60s with maybe some low 70s closer to the
Albemarle Sound. Skies start out mostly sunny, then cloud cover
increases in the afternoon. Breezy again in the afternoon with gusts
between 15-25mph (highest at the coast). Lows Fri night will
generally be in the mid 50s to low 60s, but NW counties will be
chillier in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Will see degrading conditions Saturday as low pressure to the S
develops into a coastal storm. Global models are not terribly
different through Saturday afternoon, though the ECMWF shows a
broader low that is just a tad farther south than the GFS.
Regardless, rain chances steadily increase through the day,
especially E of I-95. Starting the morning off with Chnc PoPs
across the area (35-40%), then increasing up to 60% at the coast
in the afternoon. Less than an inch of QPF expected through Sat
evening with highest amounts closer to the Albemarle Sound.
Highs will be in the upper 60s inland and the low 70s in the
east. Unfortunately, the 12z suite of models start to diverge
heading into Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- A strong coastal system continues Sunday into Monday, bringing
heavy rain and gusty winds to eastern portions of the area.

Sat night is unfortunately where confidence decreases, even compared
to last night`s forecast package. The 12z GFS diverged from the
other deterministic models, bringing the center of the low right up
the coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF depicts a broader low further
offshore and the Canadian also keeping it offshore. The ensembles do
not have quite so much spread with the mean location of the low
offshore. These differences affect the timing of impacts,
location of heaviest rain, and strength of the winds. Not
comfortable straying far from the NBM given the uncertainty, and
do feel the trend in the NBM PoPs is going the right direction.
PoPs increase to 60-80% with highest values right along the
coast late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Highest PoPs then
shift to the NE Sun morning and gradually taper off SW to NE
going into Monday. Will say that the end time of rain is up in
the air at this point since there is even more spread in the
guidance on what happens to the low after Sunday. Some keep the
low close by through early next week while others lift it out by
Monday. QPF through 00z Mon is for 2-3" right along the coast,
tapering down to ~0.5" in the far west. Will note that there is
a low end prob of 4" of rain with both GEFS and Euro Ens showing
a 10-30% prob immediately near the coast. The WPC has
maintained the slight risk ERO for coastal areas for Sat and
Sun. The other concern for this period is the wind. Currently
forecasting wind gusts of 45 to 55+ mph possible along the
immediate coast (25 to 35 mph inland). Cannot rule out high wind
warnings or wind advisories at this point. Conditions should
gradually improve Tuesday and beyond as the low weakens/moves
offshore and high pressure begins to build back into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Thursday...

High pressure remains in control today leading to prevailing VFR
across all of the terminals during the 18z TAF period. SCT to
BKN cu clouds over most of the terminals may temporarily
subside this evening into tomorrow morning before thicker cloud
cover moves in from the SE ahead of a forming offshore low
pressure system tomorrow. Gusty NNE winds diminish some
overnight, then turning more to the E tomorrow and gusting
around 20kt.

Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs, elevated winds, and moderate to heavy
rain are likely as we head into Saturday as low pressure
develops offshore. Periods of sub-VFR conditions likely continue
through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 PM EDT Thursday..

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions persist across most of the local
  waters through Saturday.

- Low pressure develops south of the area this weekend. While uncertainty
  remains, dangerous marine conditions are forecast from
  Saturday evening into early next week. Storm and Gale Watches
  continue unchanged from the previous forecast.

1034mb high pressure has moved into the Great Lakes region while
yesterday`s front is now well south (northern FL) of the local area.
Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft with seas offshore 4-5 ft N and 5-7 ft
S. The pressure gradient remains steep across the region with NE
winds generally 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. We are in a bit of a
lull in winds late this afternoon, but an additional surge of cooler
air should bring a modest increase in winds this evening into early
tonight. Winds again decrease Friday into the first part of
Saturday, but the forecast retains 15-20 kt winds in the southern
waters through Saturday.

The main focus continues to be the developing coastal low Saturday,
which will track northward over or close to our waters Sunday into
Monday. The exact evolution of the low remains of low confidence at
this point, in fact, uncertainty has actually increased with the 12z
guidance suite. The GFS now shows a slightly inland track across the
region while the remaining guidance keeps the circulation center
well offshore. This disconnect has rather significant differences in
wind speed and direction over the local waters. Therefore, did not
stray too far from the previous forecast pending (hopefully) more
clarity over the next 24 hours. Regardless of the track/intensity
details, there remains high confidence for significant marine
hazards, including high winds (potentially to Storm force) and
dangerous seas. NE winds increase considerably later Saturday into
Saturday night, with the peak in the winds Sunday into early Monday
as the low makes its closest approach to the area. Peak wind gusts
range from 45-50 kt on the coastal waters, 40-45 kt in the
Chesapeake Bay, and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers. Left the
Gale and Storm Watch headlines unchanged with this forecast cycle.
There is the potential for expansion of the Storm Watch into the
Mouth of the Chesapeake Bay but was not comfortable making changes
with the very disjointed 12z guidance. Most guidance has backed off
on the potential for the low to stall offshore it occludes late
Monday into Tuesday and the models that still show this scenario
have a much weaker low pivoting around. Accordingly, have decreased
winds a bit from the previous forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. The
gradient finally starts to relax by mid week with improving marine
conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 13-17 ft range, with
higher values not out of the realm of possibility. Waves in the
Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the
mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but
only gradually.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 340 PM EDT Thursday..

The next high tide cycle is the lower astronomical tide vs this
morning and the subsequent cycle on Friday, so only nuisance tidal
flooding is expected tonight. That said, this morning`s high tide
over performed in a few spots so will be watching the gages closely
tonight and a short-fused Coastal Flood Statement or Advisory is
possible, mainly along the southern Chesapeake Bay/lower James and
Currituck OBX.

Tidal anomalies increase quickly late Saturday through Sunday with
widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding possible by
Sunday. The highest confidence is across the Ches Bay (especially
the lower bay) and across locations adjacent to the ocean. Water
levels will be highly dependent on the track of the low and the
associated wind direction. The 12z guidance suite has not aided in
clarifying these details so have not made major changes to the
forecast. The high tide cycle in the late morning-early afternoon of
Sunday continues to look the most problematic, though additional
flooding is possible into early next week. The ETSS remains on the
very high end of the guidance envelope (depicting major to near-
record flood levels), with the probabilistic distribution in the P-
ETSS a bit more realistic, though the 50% percentile output appears
a bit too low in the lower bay locations. Major flooding is forecast
from Duck northward into the lower Ches Bay, including at Lynnhaven
and Sewell`s Point. Major flooding is also forecast in the tidal
James and York, including at Smithfield, Jamestown, and Yorktown.
Elsewhere, the wind direction should favor primarily minor to
moderate flooding, though this is a very fluid forecast and subject
to change based on the track of the low. It is still too early for
Coastal Flood Watches, but they will be needed in subsequent
forecasts.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-
     631.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for
     ANZ630>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-
     654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ636-637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ638-650-652.
     Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RHR/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...