Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
271 FXUS64 KAMA 212305 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 505 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1252 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 A medium chance for dense fog exists tonight, mainly effecting the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Trends will be monitored to see how far north and east the fog could spread tonight. Rainfall is highly likely on Sunday; however, rainfall totals for the event continue to decrease. A weaker cold front next Tuesday promotes slightly warmer temperatures than previously forecast. Chances for precipitation after Sunday look to be very low (<10%). && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1252 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 The short term period enters into a bit of a quiet period before our next large scale weather systems enters the combined Panhandles. Today, temperatures are coming in much cooler due to the lingering low clouds and breezy surface winds flowing from the north. Tonight, the lower levels of the atmosphere are expected to be highly saturated. With RH values tonight reaching or approaching 100%, fog is expected to develop. HiRes guidance suggest there`s a 50-60% chance for some locations in the southwest Texas Panhandle to experience dense fog (vis <1/4 SM). Confidence at this time is limited as to how far north and east dense fog may expand. An Advisory has been considered and may be issued with the next package if trends continue to favor dense fog. Saturday... Once the fog erodes by the late morning, skies are anticipated to clear up and result in sunny skies by the afternoon hours. High temperatures should also increase thanks to the dispersion of the sky coverage. Most locations in the CWA will range in the 60`s during the day and then cool back down into the 30`s and upper 40`s by Sunday morning. The current short range models show precipitation enter our area slower than previous forecast. Not many models have PoPs cross the Texas state line till after 6AM, so a reduction of PoPs may become necessary for the hours before then. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1252 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Guidance from the past 24 hours have shown consistent signs of the impending upper level low being pulled northward before the center of this low pressure system can enter the combined Panhandles. This may limit the quality of moisture over the CWA and has thus far resulted in lower forecast PWATs for Sunday compared to this past event on Thursday, November 20th. While high chances for rain remain intact, 24 hour QPF has seen a sharp downtrend and is expected to fall further as CAMs weigh into the NBM. CAPE profiles will reach their peak by the afternoon hours, allowing embedded thunderstorms to form within the general flow of the shower activity. Any location under a storm will have the best chance to experience higher-end rain rates, but we do not have any flooding concerns at this time. Model ensembles suggest the southwestern Texas Panhandle is favored to receive the most rainfall in the FA for the whole event. A 50% currently exists for that zone to receive 0.5" or more of total rainfall. However, given the latest trends of the system, these probabilities may also decrease as we approach Sunday. For the rest of the extended, highs are expected to stay near average with Tuesday and Wednesday being the likely exceptions. Though long range models have shown a weaker cold front move across the region in recent runs, high temperatures are still anticipated to stay below 60 degrees for both days. Morning lows will also return to the 20`s and lower 30`s. PoPs after Sunday continue to be non-existant. They will likely remain this way until clear signs of quality moisture return to the CWA. Rangel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 437 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 The weather system and its associated low level cloud decks is still present over the northern and eastern portions of the panhandles. This is currently leading to the MVFR conditions at KGUY. This bank of low clouds will continue to move to the north and east and depart the panhandles during the evening hours. However, a bank of fog has a high chance of forming in the southern and western panhandles during the late evening hours lasting through the morning hours of Saturday. KAMA and KDHT will have a high chance of being impacted by this bank of fog. Conditions will most likely be LIFR to VLIFR within this bank of fog. KGUY has a low to moderate chance of being impacted by this bank of fog after the bank of low clouds departs. So for now KGUY has mist reflected within the TAF but this can turn into fog if the bank of fog fully builds of the station. The bank of fog will most likely dissipate late Saturday morning with conditions becoming VFR once the fog bank dissipates. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...98