Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
148 FXUS64 KAMA 230529 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1129 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 - Patchy fog is possible across portions of the Panhandles on Sunday morning. - Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the area on Sunday. Rainfall amounts will generally be upwards of a half inch. - Quiet and dry weather is expected for the busy travel week leading up to and including Thanksgiving day. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Once again, fog may be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern Panhandles to start the day, but chances are much lower than they were Saturday morning. In fact, chances have decreased with this forecast, but will keep some patchy fog mentions for the areas with the highest chances. An upper level low pressure system is racing northeast across southern Arizona this evening and should pass to the northwest of the Panhandles through the day on Sunday. Moisture from the Pacific and Gulf of America is surging northward over New Mexico and west Texas out ahead of this feature. The lift from the system will generate rain showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southern High Plains throughout the day. Not much CAPE is being shown in model soundings, however it may be enough to generate isolated thunderstorms as the rain moves across the region. Even so, the band of rain looks to be fairly quick moving so rainfall totals are mainly forecast to be around a quarter inch. The potential is still there for some locations to exceed a half inch of rain, mainly across the western TX Panhandle along the TX/NM state line, with the 23/00z HREF showing probabilities upwards of 30-50 percent. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will move west to east across the area during the day and should be east of the Panhandles by mid evening. Temperatures on Sunday will be cooler in the 50s due to widespread cloud cover and the rain. Patchy fog may once again be ongoing on Monday morning as there will be high surface moisture across the area. The Panhandles will be south or just behind the upper level system that brought the rain on Monday. Northwesterly winds are forecast during the day which will suppress the warmest temperatures to the south and east of the CWA. Highs are forecast to warm up into the 60s with mostly clear skies during the day. Winds will decrease on Monday night leading to good radiational cooling leading to a cooler day on Tuesday. Muscha && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 A weak cold front should be moving across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles by sunrise on Tuesday morning. The front is currently forecast to be south of the CWA by late morning. Breezy northerly winds are expected in its wake as the surface pressure gradient tightens during the day. Colder air should linger over the region leading to below freezing temperatures area wide on Wednesday morning. A cool day is expected on Wednesday, with highs in the 50s, which is slightly below average for late November. The dry weather pattern looks to remain in place through Thanksgiving into the start of next weekend with temperatures climbing back up into the upper 50s to low 60s to end the week. Just enough moisture may reach portions of the Panhandles late in this forecast period on Saturday to lead to rain chances, but confidence at this point is very low as the forecast synoptic pattern varies in the model guidance. Muscha && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 VFR conditions are forecast through the overnight hours even though there are very low chances for fog. TAFs will be amended if fog does impact the terminals, but the chances have decreased. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the Panhandles from late this morning through the early evening. In addition to the visibility reduction from the rain, low clouds will lead to MVFR to potentially IFR conditions. The low clouds may start to lift towards the very end of this TAF cycle, but have kept MVFR ceilings with this issuance. Winds will mainly be out of the south over the next 24 hours. Muscha && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05