374
FXUS64 KAMA 240532
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1132 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Fog will be possible through Monday morning across the central
  and eastern Panhandles.

- Dry conditions and no weather related travel impacts are
  expected leading up to and including Thanksgiving day for the
  Panhandles.

- A pattern shift next weekend will likely lead to much cooler
  temperatures and the potential for wintry precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Patchy fog is currently ongoing across the Panhandles at this time.
Some locations have reported dense fog, with visibility at a quarter
mile or less. The areas that have been receiving fog have not had
consistent visibility issues so will hold off on issuing any Dense
Fog products at this point. Fog chances will remain until shortly
after sunrise on Monday morning.

A surface low will trek southeast across CO/KS into northern OK
tonight into Monday. The low is expected to strengthen a bit during
the day which will lead to breezy northwest winds on the backside of
the low pressure system. Wind gusts could be upwards of 35 mph
during the afternoon and temperatures should rise into the upper 50s
to mid 60s. A low pressure system will move across the Dakotas on
Tuesday and with the base of the trough reaching the Panhandles, a
cold front should quickly trek south over the region. Breezy to
gusty northerly winds are forecast in its wake along with a cooler
air mass. Cooler highs in the 50s to low 60s are currently expected.
Clear skies and light winds are likely on Tuesday night which will
lead to good radiational cooling and lows area wide should be below
freezing.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Cooler temperatures are forecast for Wednesday as the air mass in
place over the region will still be influenced by the cold frontal
passage on Tuesday. Winds will shift to out of the south during the
day, which could lead to slightly warmer highs than currently
forecast but no impacts are expected either way with highs in the
50s. Ridging is expected to quickly move across the central CONUS
late this week which will lead to a very nice Thanksgiving day with
no weather impacts currently anticipated.

Friday through next weekend is where a major pattern shift is being
forecast and has been for at least the last week. Friday still looks
to remain on the warm side, but cannot rule out it will be breezy to
windy depending upon how the upper level pattern plays out. Model
guidance diverges on the exact solution, but there has been strong
consistency in a strong trough digging south over the
western/central CONUS next weekend. This trough will usher in a
strong cold front at some point next weekend, with the timing
varying in the current guidance. Out of the operational guidance,
the GFS is the fastest with the front, having it through the area by
Saturday evening. Will note that the last few runs of the
deterministic AI based Euro have also trended in that direction, but
the front is even slightly quicker than the operational GFS. Well
below average temperatures will follow in the wake of the front and
cannot rule out the first winter precipitation of the season with
this system next weekend.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Fog and low clouds are leading to LIFR to IFR conditions across
the Panhandles. The fog and low clouds will clear out near sunrise
for KDHT and KAMA, but may linger at KGUY through the morning. VFR
conditions are expected once low clouds and fog clear out. Winds
will begin out of the south but will become northwesterly with
gusts upwards of 25-30 kts at all sites. Winds should decrease by
sunset but remain out of the west to northwest.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05