Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
477 FXUS64 KAMA 041921 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 221 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 - There is a low chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds will be possible with any of this activity. - The arrival of a cold front Friday morning will see temperatures cool and the Panhandles getting their first taste of fall with highs in the 60s to 70s. - More widespread showers and thunderstorms are favored across the Panhandles, and especially the southern Texas Panhandle, this weekend into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 It`s been a relatively hot September Thursday across much of the Panhandles, but a significant cool down is on the way tomorrow. Upper level ridging to our west is dominating today`s weather, but northwest flow will allow a stronger cold front to advance across the southern Plains early Friday morning through the day. Steep pressure rises behind the front will generate breezy north winds of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will aid cold air advection while also pulling slightly better moisture as some weak overrunning occurs. As a result, dense cloud cover and light showers could linger throughout the day. Overall we`re looking at 15-30% chances for measurable rain especially for northern portions of the forecast area. Very light accumulation (~0.1" or less) is favored for those that get any bonafide showers. These factors also suggest the warmest temperatures of the day could occur before noon, getting progressively cooler as the day goes on. Given the anticipated timing of the fronts arrival, forecast highs range from 60s in the north, to 70s in the south. During the afternoon hours, areas across the northern combined Panhandles have low to medium (20- 60%) probabilities to potentially stay in the 50s! Showers should clear overnight with lowering dew pts, allowing overnight lows to dip much cooler in the low 50s to upper 40s by Saturday morning. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 The weekend ahead brings a new hope for rain chances and fall temperatures to much of the Panhandles, with perhaps a rogue one or two thunderstorms in the mix Sun-Mon. Synoptic flow aloft becomes more zonal atop the Plains this weekend as the deeply amplified trough over the Great Lakes rotates over the northeast CONUS. This will allow pieces of moisture and energy to break off of what is forecast to be the remnants of Lorena, likely situated over the Baja. While most of Saturday should be drier with highs in the 70s, we can`t rule out a few showers developing overnight into Sunday morning. Latest data trends point to Sunday being the better day for precipitation, including the potential for thunderstorms, depending on the timing of an upper level shortwave. If it arrives earlier in the day, mostly showers with light to moderate rain would be favored. However, if it slows down and arrives in the afternoon, stronger convection could develop with enough shear & instability to become organized. Monday paints a similar picture, and based on ensemble forecasts, may have slightly better parameters for strong/severe thunderstorm potential. The odds of severe storms are still rather low for both days as of this forecast. The key to whether or not we`ll see heavy rain vs lighter stratiform rain likely lies in whether or not we can destabilize enough Sun-Mon to get thunderstorms. Models agree that moisture content will be more than sufficient each day for heavy rain (1-1.5" PWATs), but if lift and instability are insufficient, lighter rain will be favored. For now, forecast rain accumulations are only around 1/4 inch or less, favoring the western Panhandles. If we can manage the convective elements in our precipitation, then there are low probabilities for high-end totals in the 1-2" range rather than the 0.5-1.0" range. Model confidence decreases beyond Monday, but there are indications towards rain chances persisting through mid- week. And unfortunately for some, there`s also a signal towards highs in the 90s returning as well. Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 Fog and low clouds have finally cleared from the north- northeastern Panhandles, leaving clear skies at all sites the rest of the day with winds out of the south-southwest at 10-15 kts. A cold front is set to arrive early Friday morning bringing breezy north winds of 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. This will also bring the potential for light showers and low cloud decks towards the end of the period. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38