073
FXUS64 KAMA 070536
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1236 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Patchy fog may develop on Sunday morning across the central and
  eastern Panhandles which may result in visibility dropping down
  to a half mile or less.

- Thunderstorms may be possible on Monday afternoon and if they
  can form, they could be severe with large hail and damaging wind
  gusts being the primary hazards.

- Very hot temperatures are expected all of this week with the
  potential for heat illnesses if proper precautions are not taken
  for those that are doing activities outdoors.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

With all the recent rainfall and increased surface moisture, fog
may develop late tonight into early Sunday morning across the
central and eastern Panhandles. Right now, the northeast has the
highest potential for fog development with the HREF suggesting a
50-70 percent chance for visibility of a half mile or less by
sunrise. The fog should quickly burn off after sunrise as surface
temperatures quickly rise. Overall, a mostly quiet weather day is
expected for Sunday as WAA increases over the region. Afternoon
highs should reach the 90s across the entire area with a few
locations reaching or exceeding 100. The southwest surface wind
will usher in some drier air across the west, but a weak shortwave
may generate a few, brief isolated showers or storms across
eastern NM or the western Panhandles late Sunday afternoon.

Upper level high pressure should start to move more over the
Panhandles on Monday which will result in even hotter temperatures.
Widespread highs in the upper 90s if not exceeding 100 are expected
on Monday afternoon. Heat Advisory criteria may be met in some
locations, but where that may occur is still to be determined. A
surface trough may be in place across the area on Monday afternoon,
oriented from southwest to northeast near the middle of the CWA. To
the east of the trough, moisture may be sufficient enough for
showers or storms to form if everything aligns during the afternoon
hours. If storms do form, they could become severe with large hail
and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards. Right now,
confidence in storms forming is quite low (around 10 percent or
less) but that potential will need to continue to be closely
monitored. If anything does form, the storms should dissipate or
move out of the CWA during the evening hours.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Upper level ridging is forecast to be in place across the eastern
CONUS and portions of the south central US on Tuesday into Wednesday
of this upcoming week. The strongest WAA is expected to be to the
west and northwest of the CWA on Tuesday, but even with that being
said, highs will still be in the 90s across the entire area with a
few locations potentially reaching the triple digit mark. A
shortwave embedded in the upper level flow may generate some
isolated showers or storms over the mountains of NM that may reach
the northwestern Panhandles during the evening.

The H500 ridge will be pushed off to the east during the later half
of the week but high pressure will remain in place across Mexico and
portions of the southwestern US. Wednesday may be quite the hot day
across the Panhandles as H850 temperatures rise into the lower 30s
Celsius and quite a few areas may reach 100 degrees for afternoon
highs. The base of the upper level trough is expected to move just
north of the Panhandles late week, but its influence should still
lead to a brief cool down on Thursday. The warm temperatures will
likely continue into next weekend. Isolated storms may form on any
of these days next week as mid level moisture remains in place and
the very hot temperatures may be just enough to form a few storms
any afternoon, but confidence is low since there is a lack of good
synoptic scale forcing.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions are forecast initially at the terminals. Low
ceilings or fog may develop at KAMA or KGUY starting around
09-12z. MVFR or lower ceilings/visibility will be possible if any
fog or low clouds develop over the terminals. VFR conditions
should return shortly after sunrise if there are flight
restrictions. The wind should be light out of the south to
southwest at the TAF sites with sustained wind upwards of 10-15
kts.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05