749
FXUS64 KAMA 060506
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1106 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1019 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Breezy southwesterly winds expected across the Panhandles on
Saturday, but especially the southwestern Texas Panhandle where 20
to 30 mph sustained winds are expected with gusts up to 40 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

As of the mid-evening hours, water vapor satellite imagery shows a
shortwave trough entering the Pacific Northwest. This trough will
move off to the southeast through the night and through Saturday
with a surface low moving from Montana through Nebraska. Meanwhile,
a secondary surface low will develop in northeastern New Mexico
later Saturday morning. Owing to a tightened surface pressure
gradient, winds will become breezy especially in the southwestern
Panhandles where 20-30 mph sustained winds are favored with gusts
between 30-40 mph. Elsewhere in the CWA winds will be comparatively
weaker at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 25-35 mph. Winds should peak in
intensity in the late morning/early afternoon hours since the
surface low will move southeast across the Panhandles in the mid to
late afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the upper-50s to mid-
60s in the afternoon before a cold front moves in Saturday night.

Northerly to northwesterly winds will be present through most, if
not all, of the day on Sunday in the post-frontal airmass. Despite
this, and an anticipated partly cloudy sky,  temperatures will be
only be a few degrees cooler than normal.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A fairly stagnant weather pattern is expected to set up for this
coming work week. Operational and the vast majority of ensemble
model guidance agrees that a Western US ridge will build and largely
stay put as persistent troughing reigns over the Upper Midwest,
Great Lakes, and the Eastern US. This results in a Western US
warm/Eastern US cold dichotomy. The Panhandles will see influences
from both regimes: while warmer than normal temperatures are
favored through the week, embedded shortwave troughs will cause
for some weak/modified cold fronts to move into the area.
Currently looking at highs in the 50s to mid-60s for the entire
work week with essentially no hope for precipitation. There are
some episodic hints that a more potent cold front could work into
the Central/Southern Plains later in the week, but there is very
low confidence at this time.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions expected through at least the next 24 hours. Winds
will become breezy during the day out of the southwest at 15 to
20 kts with gusts between 25 to 30 kts before weakening later in
the afternoon and through the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Breezy and somewhat dry conditions are expected today in the
southern Texas Panhandle, and especially in the southwest, on
Saturday. However, fuels are believed to be generally unreceptive
owing to the recent exceptional RH recovery at night and cool
temperatures, and for applicable locations, Wednesday night`s snow.
Therefore, not forecasting elevated fire weather conditions, but be
mindful that there will be a wind factor if there are any initial
attack fires.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52