793
FXUS64 KAMA 231119
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
619 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Summer heat wave continues with impactful temperatures near or
  above 100 degrees through at least Monday.

- Low to medium chance (20-40%) for scattered storms capable of
  gusty winds across the northwest and central combined Panhandle
  this afternoon into this evening.

- Potential pattern change could provide slightly cooler
  temperatures and increased rain opportunities next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Latest in-situ observations show decaying complex of storms moving
south through the south and rolling plains this evening, with a
few more isolated showers in the eastern NM plains. GOES mid
level water vapor imagery shows ridging across the Rocky Mountains
with a better defined anti-cyclonic circulation center near east
central NM. A trough of low pressure is impinging the much broader
high pressure from the Pacific Northwest, and the combination of
these features is keeping a large fetch of monsoon moisture across
the intermountain west and adjacent plains. The latest 00z KAMA
sounding continue to indicate well above normal heights for 500mb
registering 597dm. However, this is a slight decrease from
yesterday`s 00z launch which was closer to 599dm, and we expect
heights to continue to fall slowly over the next few days as the
high center shifts more over the Desert Southwest.

For tomorrow, the latest HREF and REFS members continue to hint at
a modest shortwave perturbation rounding the high center and
moving through the northern Panhandle during the evening. With
ample H7-H5 moisture and an axis of instability peaking around
1500 J/kg MLCAPE, storms firing off the higher terrain of CO/NM
might have a decent environment to work with allowing them to
persist well into the evening as they track east southeast. Given
this, have increased PoPs slightly over NBM to nudge more towards
the CAMs, as they have performed well lately and generally show
more activity than the medium range guidance. PoPs will decrease
with southern extent towards the central and southern TX
Panhandle due to the position of the shortwave, however, some
isolated storms may fire in the south during the afternoon as
high temperatures are expected to exceed convective T. With DCAPE
values around 1300-1600 (inverted-V profiles) and mostly low shear
(<20kts effective shear), rogue microbursts will be a concern. If
the storms congeal across the OK Panhandle a far northern TX
Panhandle, strong to damaging winds gusts may become more
scattered than isolated, but the lack of shear should result in
outflow dominant cells. Some pockets of heavy downpours are also
expected with the stronger storms given modest PWATs 1.0-1.3", but
these storms may be moving fast enough that flooding is not
expected. Otherwise, it will be hot again, with most of the
central and east zones under a heat advisory and PDC will get an
Extreme Heat Warning. Some spotty elevated fire weather is also
expected given the slight uptick in southwest winds during the
afternoon.

For Monday, a similar setup unfolds with the addition of a weak
boundary in the area. Temperatures should be slightly cooler, and
it looks like a later arrival for any shortwaves. Thus, storms may
be more spotty until late in the evening. Heat advisories look
likely for parts of the south, but that could hinge on the
strength and position of the boundary currently indicated in the
short range models.

Ward

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Latest medium and long term ensembles continue to suggest that
high pressure will continue shifting west Tuesday into Wednesday.
This will allow shortwave disturbances to cross into the area on
northwest flow aloft, and provide more chances for evening and
overnight storms. Temperatures also may drop at least for a day
or two partially due to the increased cloud cover, but also in
response to height falls and being remove from the high pressure
center resulting in less amplified low level thermal ridge.
Unfortunately, it looks like the high does try to squeeze back to
the east late week into next weekend, so chances are we will see
at least a few more days of widespread 100-105 degree heat to
finish off August. Hopefully early September will see the demise
of our high pressure, as some longer range ensemble members are
suggesting.

Ward

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are once again possible this afternoon
thanks in part to a weak short-wave brushing the far north.
Currently, present CAMs have KGUY with the best chances of seeing
storms with enough confidence present to justify a PROB30 group
for the current package. As for KAMA and KDHT, a handful of CAMs
have seen the potential of an isolated storms passing through or
within the vicinity of the terminal. However, confidence in this
is only around 10 to 20 percent with chances of any actual impact
to the terminals even less. Regardless, any storm that does pass
over a terminal could result in a strong and erratic outflow wind
gust and a brief period of reduce visibility due to heavy
rainfall. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions to hold for the vast
majority of the package.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ004-005-008>010-012>015-017-018.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ019-020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11