Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
102 FXUS64 KAMA 120509 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1109 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1109 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 - Above average temperatures through the work week and into the weekend. - A weather system arriving Sunday night brings cooler conditions and low chances for precipitation Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1109 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Pretty quiet short term with above normal temperatures. Despite a weak cold front that will drop temperatures in the low to mid 70s on Wednesday we`re still looking at temperatures around 10 degrees above normal. The cooldown wont last long, as we will return in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. Winds will be light and variable for the most part on Thursday as a weak surface low pushes through the Panhandles. We will however have a pretty low dip on our RH values, which could lead to some elevated Fire Conditions. It`s just that the winds will not be that impressive. With the mild temperatures in play we can expect the overnight lows to be in the 40s for the most part on Thursday night into Friday. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1109 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Slow progressing ridge of high pressure will continue to shift eastward with southwest flow starting to move in on Friday. This will set up highs to be widespread upper 70s to mid 80s. We will certainly be challenging our records that day across the Panhandles. Some models have 850 temps around 23-24C. Given this potential setup, the current forecast is likely too low, and would not be surprised if we over perform by another 3 to 6 degrees above our current forecast. Not much change happening Saturday, southwest flow still in play, so another day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sunday will be yet another warm day, but slightly cooler with widespread 70s as the next system will be getting closer and heights will begin to fall. Still a very warm and dry day given we`re now in mid November. Monday and Tuesday we`ll see a bit of a change in the pattern, as the upper trough is expected to pass to the north. Most likely we`ll stay dry with this system passage, but we will cool down to about normal with highs in the 60s on Monday and Tuesday. Another large scale trough looks to move toward the Baja on Tuesday night and that could lead to a good plume of moisture setup for the Panhandles mid to late next week. But overall, the forecast is most likely a dry one all the way through Tuesday. Weber && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with winds mainly out of the north east in the 5-10kt range through about 18z. Thereafter winds in the 5-10kt range out of the south. Mostly clear skies to few high clouds are expected during this time. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...89