494
FXUS64 KAMA 290506
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1206 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Forecast remains on track for the upcoming week with heavy rain
  and flash flood concerns. There is the potential for this to be
  a high end rain event.

- Potential for isolated severe weather Tuesday through Wednesday
  morning across portions of the panhandle. This includes damaging
  wind gusts and tornados.

- Drier and cooler on Friday of next week with highs only in the
  upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Based on current water vapor imagery, Hurricane Polo is about make
landfall on the Baja Peninsula. Further north another upper level low
pressure system is evolving over southern CA/NV with its associated
trough bringing moisture into NM and the Panhandles under southwest
flow aloft. By this evening the center of Polo will be somewhere
south of the NM bootheel falling apart and beginning to feed its
tropical moisture into the southwest flow aloft as the other low
deepens as it moves into AZ. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected this morning mainly around and after
sunrise in the western combined Panhandles. However, some of the
heaviest and more scattered to widespread rain is expected later
this afternoon into evening when Polo gets ingested into the trough
and feeds the abundant tropical moisture into NM and the combined
Panhandles.

With this tropical set up, instability around 1000-1500 J/Kg,
showing as long skinny CAPE in forecast soundings rainfall rates
could be as high as 3" an hour at times, but most likely will be
around 1-2". Multiple rounds of rain especially in the western
Panhandles where just a week ago 2-6" of rain fell may lead to some
flash flooding and even some river flooding concerns. The tropical
nature and low level helicity may even lead to a potential for a few
isolated tropical tornadoes. Winds aloft will begin to ramp up as
the upper level system approaches and would not rule out some
isolated winds gusts of 60 mph with the strongest updrafts and
downpours as well.

Going into Wednesday, precipitation chances are a bit more uncertain
as some model solutions leave the majority of the Panhandles getting
dry slotted as the upper level low pressure system comes across. The
speed and track will determine the full precip potential for Wed
into Wed night. As the southwestern Panhandles begins to get dry
slotted Wed afternoon, the eastern Panhandles may see a brief period
of isolated severe storms before the system moves all activity to
western OK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

For Thursday, some chance PoPs stick around in the
northern combined Panhandles as wrap around moisture circles the
upper level pressure system as it comes across. The southern half of
the combined Panhandles should stay mostly dry slotted, depending on
the track of the low. However, some very light precip still may fall
briefly Thursday afternoon as far south as the I-40 corridor. The
heavy rain should be over by this time and any flooding will likely
have already occurred, with the exception of potential river/creek
flooding down stream from Tuesday into Wednesday`s rain. The main
story Thursday will be the arrival of an accompanied cold front
thanks to the upper level trough. This front is progged to bring in
some breezy and gusty northerly winds during the day. Highest winds
that day are looking to be out west along the NM state line where
gust could be as high as 50 mph. NBM gives about a 20 percent chance
for gusts exceeding 50 mph for the Kenton, OK to Texline, TX area at
this time. Slight chance PoPs Thursday night taper off going into
Friday.

Post frontal afternoon highs on Friday may very well be in the 60s
for much of the area. But the combined Panhandles should see
afternoon highs rebound into the 70s to maybe 80 Saturday into
Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

This TAF period will be quite messy especially after 12Z. There
may be periods of VFR but expect to stay mainly MVFR to even LIFR
as there will be abundant atmospheric moisture with shower and
thunderstorm activity contributing to low CIGs and VIS. Cannot
rule out some gusty winds around 30 kts with a potential to be
slightly higher for thunderstorms. Where the heaviest rain falls
in the Panhandles is a bit uncertain with all three terminals
having a potential to be impacted.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Anomalously high PWATs (200-250% of normal) will contribute to
the potential for some areas to receive several inches of rain
over the next 24 to 48 hours. Not every one will see the highest
amounts of rain around 4"-6" that are probable, as these higher
amounts may be confined to isolated corridors from potentially
training storms. However, elsewhere isolated storms dropping 1" to
2" an hour rain rates over an urban area with poor drainage will
see short lived flash flood issues that could lead to stalled
vehicles and a potentially dangerous situation. Also, runoff from
storms in NM as well as the Panhandles may lead to rising rivers
and creeks over the next 24 to 48 hours. Main concerns remain in
the central to western combined Panhandles where several inches of
rain less than a week ago has moistened up the soils. Increased
soil moisture in the west is expected to increase the potential
runoff from this event. Though some areas in the Panhandle may
only see rain totals in the 0.5" to 1.5" range, everyone should be
prepared to face dangerous flash flooding and avoid driving
through fast moving waters. Turn around and don`t drown.

03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon
     for TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon
     for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03