185
FXUS63 KAPX 201036
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
636 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic shower/ storm chances into the early weekend-- some
  could be strong to severe, especially tonight into early
  Saturday.

- Hot and humid early next week, with increasing heat-related
  heath concerns.

- Cooler midweek with renewed chances for showers/ storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

After a quiet evening/ night, attention turns to an increase in
moisture and instability beginning today. Early morning
condtions will start off dry and seasonable, with temperatures
in the 50s and partly clear skies across much of the area.
However, a modest increase in mid and uper-level moisture and an
approaching weak upper-level disturbance will gradually bring
increasing cloud cover from the southwest through the morning
hours.

Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase through the
afternoon, especially for northwest Lower and eastern Upper, as
a weak low-level jet noses into the region and interacts with a
quasi- stationary surface boundary draped near or just south of
the area. Forecast soundings show limited deep-layer shear and
modest CAPE, so storms should remain mostly disorganized. Still,
a few stronger updrafts could produce brief downpours, small
hail, and gusty winds, particularly if any clusters can organize
by the afternoon/ evening. Despite increasing clouds and
precipitation chances, warm air advection will support highs
well into the 70s to even low 80s today. Overall, much of the
day should remain dry for many areas, but confidence is
increasing in a period of scattered showers and storms pushing
into the region from the west in the afternoon into the evening.

Tonight into Saturday presents the best window for more
organized convection across northern Michigan, as a
strengthening low-level jet and pocket of mid-level forcing
slide in from the west. Guidance continues to suggest the
potential for a convective complex to develop upstream and move
into the region overnight. Storm coverage and intensity remain
uncertain given the marginal thermodynamic environment and the
location of the instability axis (which still looks to be just
southwest of our area). However, isolated strong to severe
storms remain possible, especially across northwest Lower and
eastern Upper. Damaging winds, hail, and possible tornados would
be the primary threats.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

By Saturday, any lingering showers/ storms should largely
diminish as the day progresses and as the upper wave departs,
but chances for convection to persist across areas north of M-72
into the evening should be mentioned. Attention then turns to
building heat and humidity. A strengthening upper-level ridge is
expected to dominate he region`s weather through early next
week, bringing the first prolonged heat episode of the season.
Highs on Saturday and Sunday climb into the upper 80s to mid
90s, especially across northern Lower, while dewpoints increase
to the upper 60s to low 70s will contribute to heat indices in
the mid to upper 90s to even low 100s-- making for very hot and
humid conditions. Overnight lows will offer little relief,
remaining in the 60s/ 70s. The warm and muggy conditions are
expected to persist through at least Monday, though timing of
potential convection could play a role in how high temperatures
get on any given day.

The forecast becomes increasingly uncertain by Tuesday through
the period as the amplified pattern begins to break down. A cold
front associated with a deepening trough to the west looks like
it could approach the region by midweek, brining a return to
more seasonable temperatures and renewed chances for showers/
storms. The exact timing and location of this front will be key
in determining the extent of storm coverage and whether
additional rounds of organized convection are possible. Overall,
confidence is highest in a period of significant heat Sunday
into Monday, followed by a gradual transition to a more active
and les hot pattern later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Patches of dense fog have materialized across parts of the area and
are expected to dissipate in the next few hours after sunrise.
Showers appear less likely this morning/afternoon than previously
expected, with dry weather and VFR conditions expected into tonight.
West-southwest winds between 5-10 kts are anticipated today with
potential lake breeze formation pushing inland from Lake Huron this
afternoon. CIGs look to lower across parts of northern Michigan
after midnight tonight, especially across the eastern U.P. in closer
proximity to a potential line of storms that could be working into
the area late in the issuance period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC