485
FXUS63 KAPX 141813
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
213 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered shower potential returns to parts of the area this
  evening - tonight.

- Temperatures rebound Thursday - Saturday with waves of showers
  possible at times through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale mid-upper level ridging
evident over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS this afternoon with
~1032mb high pressure centered near the MN/Ontario border.
Meanwhile, sfc low pressure is beginning to develop lee of the
Rockies with a disorganized warm front extending east across the
Plains into the mid/upper MS Valley. By this evening, subtle
shortwave energy is expected to be trekking through the parent ridge
overhead, combined with this upstream boundary and increasing
isentropic ascent inching closer, to yield scattered shower chances
across parts of northern Michigan into tonight.

High pressure continues to gradually shift east through the day on
Wednesday before centering squarely overhead Wednesday night. Little
in the way of sensible weather anticipated Wednesday with a cool
Wednesday night/Thursday morning on tap.

Forecast Details: Increasing mid-high cloud to be the rule through
the remainder of the day in advance of increasing shower chances
this evening/tonight. Think chances for these showers are primarily
focused south of M-32 and to a greater extent, south of M-72. Rain
amounts almost not even worth talking about -- looking minimal at
best (less than a tenth of an inch for those that do see showers).

Any Wednesday morning clouds largely give way to mostly sunny skies
for much of the day. Cooler, but seasonable temps, with highs in the
50s to low 60s area-wide. Light north winds during the day turn calm
Wednesday night with mainly clear skies anticipated. Should be a
pretty chilly night with lows largely in the low-upper 30s, although
the interior typically colder locales potentially make a run toward
the mid-20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Day 3-4 (Thursday - Friday):

High pressure overhead to start the day Thursday fairly quickly
drifts east ahead of upstream low pressure over the northern Plains.
Approaching warm front tied to that system will deliver our next
shower chances Thursday night, although plenty of uncertainty with
regard to how widespread/numerous those showers will be. Winds turn
out of the south during the day with high temps progged to climb a
handful of degrees over Wednesday -- largely topping out in the 60s
area-wide.

Shower chances may linger into Friday, especially during the
morning before the warm front clears to our north. This places
northern MI in the warm/moist sector of this system evidenced by
highs back in the mid-upper 60s and PWs near or above 1.25".
Suppose non-zero shower chances percolate later Friday
afternoon/evening, but more numerous shower potential expected
to hold off until Saturday. Breezy south winds area-wide on
Friday.

Day 5-7 (Saturday - Monday): By Saturday morning, low pressure
expected to be approaching Hudson Bay with an upstream cold front
making headway toward northern MI. Shower chances as early as the
pre-dawn hours Saturday morning and continue at times through much
of the day, although the latest trends suggest this may be a bit
disjointed with best forcing splitting north and south of northern
MI.

Much cooler (more seasonable) by Sunday with additional precip
potential as additional mid-level energy racing in from the west may
aid in low pressure developing along what`s expected to be a
downstream cold front by this point. Latest ENS means suggest this
area of low pressure really ramps up over Lake Huron/southern
Ontario with continued showery and breezy conditions to wrap up the
weekend -- potentially hanging around through at least early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR through the period for all terminals. Skies will continue to
fill in, becoming SCT-OVC AOA 5 kft. NW/N/NE winds will continue
through the period. Brief VCSH/-SHRA will be seen over some NW
lower terminals from 00Z through 10Z, with skies clearing after
12Z. Little to no chances for vis or cig reductions.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...ELD