574
FXUS61 KBGM 170627
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
227 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and somewhat cool weather continues today, along with
scattered showers, as well as areas of fog or drizzle in the
higher terrain. Warmer weather comes Wednesday into Thursday,
providing more energy for showers and thunderstorms especially
in the afternoons. After temperatures temporarily settle back
Friday, they will surge much warmer into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
225 AM Update...
Things will remain fairly steady state today through tonight,
with clouds and scattered showers, though an isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

We continue to hold a moist stable south-southeast low level
flow near the surface, and a west-southwest flow aloft with
embedded shortwaves. Thunder will not be much of a thing today
given the cool conditions of the lowest few thousand feet, but
shortwaves aloft may introduce minor elevated instability for
isolated thunder to accompany the likely waves of showers this
afternoon into evening, including with the eventual warm front
tonight. The more surface-based activity well to our southwest
in the advancing warm sector of the system, will have more
potential for locally heavy rain, but not expecting that to be
an issue this far north yet.

Downsloping wind as well as relatively less shower activity
will help the northern Finger Lakes and NY Thruway corridor
reach mid-upper 70s today; elsewhere thicker clouds, scattered
showers, and even some higher elevation fog/drizzle will hold
highs to only upper 60s-lower 70s for most locations. Then as
the warm front arrives tonight, higher dewpoints will lead to a
humid warmer night with lows in the 60s and continued scattered
showers. Areas of fog will probably persist for the Poconos-
Catskills areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM Update...
Southwest flow on Wednesday with temperatures and humidity
increasing across the region. There will be some decent
instability that develops in the afternoon with forecast
soundings topping out around 1500 J/kg of CAPE. However, shear
will be weak at only 20 to 25 knots, so any thunderstorms that
can develop will likely be unorganized and of the pulse variety.
Models are indicating a weak short wave pushing into the region
by the late morning or early afternoon that will also help make
showers and thunderstorms more widespread later in the day.
Depending on the exact timing of this wave, and if instability
can increase a bit more with diurnal heating, then a chance a
stronger shot-lived is certainly possible. Although wind fields
are weak, PWATS are progged to increase above 1.75" and
precipitation loading in collapsing cells may cause some
localized stronger wind gusts.

High temperatures will climb likely climb well into the 80s,
unless storms develop a little sooner than currently forecast,
as convection could limit afternoon heating. With dewpoints also
expected to be in the mid to upper 60s, the daytime hours will
be humid and finally give the area a taste of summer. Showers
will likely linger in the night, but will drastically decrease
in coverage with the loss of heating after sunset. Temperatures
will remain warm overnight with lows only falling to the mid
60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM Update...

Strong low pressure will track across southern Ontario and into
Quebec on Thursday. This system will drag a strong cold front
across our region sometime during the day Thursday, but timing
of FROPA remains uncertain at this time. If the front comes
through earlier in the late morning to early afternoon, then the
potential for severe thunderstorms will likely push south and
east of our CWA. Deep SW return flow extending all the way to
the Gulf of America will transport ample moisture into the
region. PWATs have the potential to exceed 1.75", which would be
over 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. A
deep warm cloud depth over 10K feet is also expected, but the
good news is that storms should be progressive with storm
motions of 40 - 45 knots. However, if multiple cells are able to
track over the same area then flash flooding will be possible,
especially with potential rainfall rates over 2" per hour and
wet antecedent conditions already in place.

As far as severe thunderstorm potential, this will be dependent
of the timing of the front. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE to
around 1500 J/kg and this accompanied with bulk shear of 35 to
40 kts would be enough for strong to severe thunderstorms. If
the front comes into the region earlier in the day, then heavy
rainfall will still remain a threat, but the severe risk will be
minimal. The front will be clear of the region Thursday night,
however a broad upper level trough will remain overhead into the
weekend. Several weak short waves will move across the area and
each will bring the potential for more showers and storms Friday
and Saturday.

By Sunday, a large ridge of high pressure will start to become
established over the eastern U.S. This system could bring the
first true heat of the summer, with highs Sunday and Monday next
week possibly climbing into the 90s in some areas. Depending on
the exact positioning of the high, some air mass thunderstorms
could be possible during the max heating hours of the afternoon
and lingering into the evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Moist south-southeast low level flow will maintain mostly fuel
alternate required ceilings today, especially KBGM which is
more likely to remain stuck at IFR to at times LIFR. Waves of
showers will also pass through as disturbances move west-
southwest to east-northast aloft; KSYR may avoid that but will
still have ceilings slip below 2000 feet late morning through
afternoon. Thunder cannot totally be ruled out in our area but
is more doubtful/isolated at worst and thus not included in
TAFs. Damp steady state conditions will continue into tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms increase, especially each afternoon. Occasional
restrictions likely.

Thursday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR, but isolated to
scattered afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm may
result in brief restrictions; chances somewhat better for NY
terminals versus KAVP which may stay dry.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...BJG/MDP
SHORT TERM...BTL/MPK
LONG TERM...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...MDP